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Value bet this or no?



Posted Mon Dec 12, 2005 2:21 pm GMT by TheSalche
Pacific Poker 100 NL, full table
No reads on villain.
Hero is MP with Q Diamond K Heart and opens for 4xBB raise, folded to BB who min-raises, Hero calls

Flop: J 9 Q all Heart (Pot ~12)
Villain leads for $5, Hero calls

Turn: blank (Pot ~22)
Villain checks, Hero bets $12, villain calls

River: blank (Pot ~45)
Villain checks, Hero ???

Here's my thoughts on this one, he's played this hand pretty scared for min-raising preflop ... If he has AA or KK, he doesn't have the ace of hearts for sure, but theres still a possibility he wants a cheap showdown.

If he was going to pull a move on me, he would've done it on the turn.

If I bet here, it's probably one of those situations where only better hands call, and weaker hands fold.

Thoughts?


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Posted Mon Dec 12, 2005 2:55 pm GMT by suitedaces84
His hand reeks of AA/KK/AK (probably with A Heart )/AQ/AJ (AQ and AJ being the least likely ones). It's hard to blame him for being scared on that board. I would guess you're good about half the time. And when you're ahead you'll rarely get action. If he hadn't re-raised preflop it would be very close.

I hear pacific has a pretty crazy game, so I'm too sure.

Edit: my money is on A Heart Kx.



Posted Mon Dec 12, 2005 3:01 pm GMT by UrAteUp
I have to say I hate this situation when I get into them. For one he could be betting on a set ( Js or 9s, highly doubt a set of As). He might think you have the flush but he will never lay this hand down unless you do more then value bet it.

Another thing villian could be doing is semi-slow playing a made flush. He might have a flush but not the nut flush. He might be calling you down just to see if his wins or not.

Same with a possible over card pair. He seems hesitant to get off of the hand and my thiking is he most likely won't.

1 of 3 things you can do here.

1) Value bet but I am thinking he will just call anyway.
2) Bet big, push all-in so that he thinks your either buying the pot or you have a made hand but with a big push your most likely going to scare him away making him think you have something big in your hand.
3) Check/raise the river and see if you can push him off of the pot.



Posted Mon Dec 12, 2005 3:19 pm GMT by Ciso_B
check the river imo, he could easily slow down with AQ here, and would he really call with worse anyway?


Posted Mon Dec 12, 2005 3:19 pm GMT by Soup_dog
Basically you have a pair of queens. Thats it. Looks like he had a strong starting hand but is scared of the board. He has given you the check on the river. I think I would just check behind and see who has it.
If you bet on the river you just open yourself up to a push.



Posted Mon Dec 12, 2005 3:38 pm GMT by zinn0
I'm checking here. It seems like he might have AA, KK, or AK...If you bet, more than likely, you are only getting called by hands that have you beat, but, what do I know... Rolling Eyes


Posted Mon Dec 12, 2005 4:05 pm GMT by Dave B
Fold preflop, KQ is TROUBLE vs a full table and 4xBB raise preflop.

Where you are at, definately check the river.



Posted Mon Dec 12, 2005 5:29 pm GMT by tame_deuces
If I suspect people have AA or KK I usually avoid pulling a bluff, people have such a hard time letting those hands go.





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