Posted Tue Dec 20, 2005 9:30 pm GMT by suitedaces84
Party 2/4, I have been a donator thus far.
I'm in the BB with J9o. Donk limps from HJ, SB calls I check.
The flop is A9xr (3sb). SB checks, I check, donk bets, SB folds, I call.
The turn is a Q (2.4bb). I check, donk bets, I raise (intending to fold to a 3-bet), donk calls.
The river is a brick (4.4bb). I check (intending to fold to a bet).
I hadn't pulled crap like this and been caught yet. And I was very confident he wouldn't bluff 3-bet me or bluff the river when I check to him.
Anyway here was my thought process:
-if I'm behind and c/c I'll lose 2 big bets
-if I'm behind and c/r I'll lose 2 big bets
-if I'm ahead and c/c I'll win probably win 1 big bet, maybe 2.
-if I'm ahead and c/r I'll win at least 1, probably 2, if I'm really lucky I'll improve maybe get a 3rd out of him
-if I'm really off with my read on him he could easily fold a better hand , not likely but possible
So anyways here's one you can add to your arsenal. It will have be +ev by a very slim margin if executed in the correct situation. It will come in handy once a week if you're lucky. But should this work you'll feel sexy and smart; and isn't that what poker is all about?
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Posted Wed Dec 21, 2005 10:50 am GMT by TheSalche
I'm not gonna lie ... I'm still confused on what you did on the river that was so magical.
Posted Wed Dec 21, 2005 1:22 pm GMT by Phil14312
I don't really like it. If he is a donk, you probably won't be able to move him off even a better 9 or something like that. He is surely going to call you with any ace and probably won't 3-bet you on the turn but still call you down. He will probably also call you down if he was bluffing the flop and caught a queen.
I think the better play is to check-raise the flop. If he doesn't have an ace he probably won't call you to the showdown.
Posted Wed Dec 21, 2005 4:53 pm GMT by TheSalche
Ahh I get the play now, buying the free card on the river sort of dealie.
I think it is a +EV thing to do if you only lose two bets EVERYTIME you pull it, but win a third when you hit the river.
I don't like it for two reasons though:
a. you dont have much of a drawing hand to the river. If you had a gutshot straight or something to go with your 9s, I like it more.
b. I think calling the flop is -EV here, and the +EV you gain from your play is not enough to cover this. When you're ahead on the flop you aren't that far ahead, and when you're behind you're far behind.
edit: another reason I don't like it, if the villain is a donk, he's probably a calling station too, which eliminates one of the ways you can win this hand with a c/r on the turn
Posted Wed Dec 21, 2005 5:04 pm GMT by 1988 TR
I don't like it for this reason :
| suitedaces84 wrote: |
The turn is a Q (2.4bb). I check, donk bets, I raise (intending to fold to a 3-bet), donk calls.
|
You get the pot odds that high, u almost have to call.
Yikes.
Posted Wed Dec 21, 2005 6:43 pm GMT by suitedaces84
| Phil14312 wrote: | | If he doesn't have an ace he probably won't call you to the showdown. |
But if I'm ahead I'll only win 1 big bet this way. The other way I win 2.5 big bets when I'm ahead. If I check-raise the flop and am behind I'll lose 2 or 3 bets. The other way I'll lose 2.5.
| TheSalche wrote: | | I think it is a +EV thing to do if you only lose two bets EVERYTIME you pull it |
I will never lose more than 2 bets because I'm folding if he 3-bets the turn or bets the river.
| TheSalche wrote: | | you dont have much of a drawing hand to the river. |
I agree. That was a very minor benefit of it. The reason I did it though was if I'm beat it will usually go check/check on the river. So I'd win less when I'm ahead. But will still lose only 2 when I'm behind.
| TheSalche wrote: | | I think calling the flop is -EV here, and the +EV you gain from your play is not enough to cover this. |
No way am I folding on the flop. He's got a VPIP in the 40s and a PFR of 9. He limped from LP. So it's not very likely that he has an A. There are a ton of other, possibly better ways to play the flop, like betting or check-raising. One could make a very good case for folding the turn too.
| 1988 TR wrote: | | You get the pot odds that high, u almost have to call. |
Not really. If he 3-bets the turn I'll be getting 5.4:1 or so. He bluff 3-bets the turn about never. If he 3-bet the turn I've got 5 outs at most, probably 2, maybe 0. Even if I always have 5 outs, always get 2 bets out of him on the river when I hit and never pay out with a worse hand I still don't have the odds to call.
Posted Wed Dec 21, 2005 7:41 pm GMT by 1988 TR
| suitedaces84 wrote: | | Not really. If he 3-bets the turn I'll be getting 5.4:1 or so. He bluff 3-bets the turn about never. If he 3-bet the turn I've got 5 outs at most, probably 2, maybe 0. Even if I always have 5 outs, always get 2 bets out of him on the river when I hit and never pay out with a worse hand I still don't have the odds to call. |
I see where you are going with that, but instead of raising the turn, why not save that bet & call the river instead??
That way, you get to see the river and also if you are beating him, gives you a chance to pick up that bluff bet on the river also. By raising him on the turn, if he is behind, you don't pick up that extra bet.
The only downside is calling the turn & he catches a winning card that he might have not called if you raised the turn and he folded. Slim chance of this though.
My point is, if you are going to fold to a re-bet anyway, just call call. You spend the same amount of money & you get to see the river.
Posted Wed Dec 21, 2005 7:42 pm GMT by supafrey
how many of you guys play fl for significant amounts of time
Posted Wed Dec 21, 2005 8:57 pm GMT by TheSalche
| supafrey wrote: | | how many of you guys play fl for significant amounts of time |
not a lot, but from my knowledge the people that play FL a lot are probably:
suited, you, skribbles, webby, phil, dave and probably a few others
i think ive gotten a better feel for some limit concepts from playing 7 card stud
Posted Thu Dec 22, 2005 9:37 am GMT by UrAteUp
I find FL to be more relaxing then NL. I enjoy playing it but my best game still comes in NL. In the casino though I prefer limit. For some reason it just flows for me in a casino setting.
Posted Thu Dec 22, 2005 6:04 pm GMT by Phil14312
| supafrey wrote: | | how many of you guys play fl for significant amounts of time |
Until the last couple weeks in which I've switched to NL I've almost exclusively played FL for most of my serious poker time.
Posted Mon Jan 02, 2006 7:12 am GMT by tame_deuces
| suitedaces84 wrote: | | The flop is A9xr (3sb). SB checks, I check, donk bets, SB folds, I call. |
I'm a little more curious about this one. Is chasing for low two/trips in a 4SB pot really worth it?
Posted Mon Jan 02, 2006 2:58 pm GMT by Phil14312
He's only drawing if he has the worst hand. I think suited thought there was a decent chance he had the best hand plus the chances he would draw out if he didn't. Thats probably the rationalization of why he was still in the pot.
Posted Mon Jan 02, 2006 6:20 pm GMT by tame_deuces
About my comment on the flop:
Well, the equity for a peel is pretty much there, its just a matter of making it +EV. As I said, I was curious about it, I didn't say I thought it was a bad play. 
As for the turn play...
If we plan to put 2BBs into a 5.5BB (6.5..? ack...I'm confused) pot on the turn when we are OOP with a middlepair with an ace on the board and maybe even without getting to see villain's hand, I would think hero MUST have strong read/stats on villain to make this a +EV play.
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