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Is this move +/- EV



Posted Wed Jan 04, 2006 1:50 pm GMT by arras
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) converter

SB ($23.30)
BB ($3.90)
UTG ($10.35)
Hero ($5.65)
MP1 ($2.75)
MP2 ($8.40)
MP3 ($2.80)
CO ($3.10)
Button ($17.20)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 9Spade, 9Diamond.
UTG raises to $0.3, Hero calls $0.30, 4 folds, Button calls $0.30, 2 folds.

Flop: ($1.05) QClub, AHeart, ASpade (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.7



Sorry about all these threads, but I really need to get better.


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Posted Wed Jan 04, 2006 2:05 pm GMT by Soup_dog
Oh man... what a horrible flop. You have more guts than I do. I think I would check it down and fold to any bet. But I have a ton to learn too.


Posted Wed Jan 04, 2006 2:54 pm GMT by BeerWench13
It depends on your read. What hands did you have those players on? If you don't think either has an A, then a bet here is an excellent move. If you do get a caller, odds are they are either holding an A or a Q. In either case you're beaten unless you turn a 9. Tough to say without knowing your read on your opponents, though.


Posted Wed Jan 04, 2006 3:09 pm GMT by Dat_Dude
I agree with Beer-Dub on this one. Betting here after his check is the only way to find out what kind of hand they have. It could very well be that they have a pocket pair that does or does not beat you, but you have to get more information.

If you get raised, then it is an obvious fold, but if you get called then reassess the situation on the flop. Since you have position, this is pretty simple to do. If he value bets or even bets big, watch out. If he checks, I might be inclined to fire at the pot one more time with a 2/3 sized bet.

By doing this, you actually are representing the Ace or the Q and if he cannot beat that he will fold. If he can beat it or is on a draw, he will likely check the river trying to induce another bet. If he does, check behind and cross your fingers. If he bets huge, he was slow rolling Aces the whole time.

Just my $.02



Posted Wed Jan 04, 2006 3:11 pm GMT by Jernej Zorec
well not so much of a bad move, but with player raising and then button calling also u are most likely beat considering the limits the button might just as well hold A as he might have nothing, but the initial raiser is probably having u beat on this flop

check and fold to any bet would be better play i think



Posted Wed Jan 04, 2006 3:14 pm GMT by lilitu
At this limit I think you might as well check as bluffing is weak when you're playing 0.05-0.10.

The thing is you will generally only take the pot with a bet here if your 9's are the best hand. A weak player may think you have the Ace and fold their Queen but I doubt it.

Bear in mind in this situation the player with the Ace generally check/calls so a bet screams "I’ve not got an ace". If I was acting after you and you did this it'd look like you had a queen and I may reraise you with any two cards.

My play is to check and see what the button does, if he raises I'd probably reraise assuming UTG doesn't call. If he bets and UTG calls I fold. If I did bet and anyone calls I’m check folding unless I hit nines full, and even then I’m scared. It all depends on your read on the players and table image.

Lilitu



Posted Wed Jan 04, 2006 3:14 pm GMT by arras
BeerWench13 wrote:
It depends on your read. What hands did you have those players on?


I think the raiser had a small/mid pocket pairs or a big ace. So when he checked after the flop I thought for sure I had him beat. I wasn't sure what the button had, but after the early raise and one caller he could be just playing postion which would put him on a wide variety of hands.



Posted Thu Jan 05, 2006 1:25 pm GMT by TheSalche
I really dislike betting here ... there's the obvious "only a better hand is calling you" (only hand you're beating is a gutshot draw or a lower PP ... both of which will probably fold).

The other thing is you have no information on the button's hand, and it's going to cost you a lot to find out if they've got you beat.

Your hand is good maybe 20% of the time here, so I really wouldn't bet.



Posted Thu Jan 05, 2006 2:07 pm GMT by BeerWench13
Quote:
I think the raiser had a small/mid pocket pairs or a big ace. So when he checked after the flop I thought for sure I had him beat.

I would be cautious in thinking this way. If I had an ace with that flop, I'd check too and wait for someone to try to steal. Another possiblity is QQ in the hole. I still like the bet from your position, but like Dude said, a raise or call from either player should make you reevaluate your hand. Odds are you are beaten.



Posted Thu Jan 05, 2006 3:19 pm GMT by Dat_Dude
TheSalche wrote:

The other thing is you have no information on the button's hand, and it's going to cost you a lot to find out if they've got you beat.


The button is definitely another variable in this hand, but if you bet, then you are, in a way, taking position away from the Button. If you bet and he has no part of that flop, there is a great chance he will fold since he is sandwiched between the better (Hero) and the initial raiser. If he has a part of it, he will likely come over the top to try and isolate and get UTG out of the hand. Then it is an easy fold.

If you just check, then that allows the guy with position to jump in and attempt to steal with what possibly could be the worst hand.



Posted Thu Jan 05, 2006 3:27 pm GMT by arras
Dat_Dude wrote:
If you bet and he has no part of that flop, there is a great chance he will fold since he is sandwiched between the better (Hero) and the initial raiser. If he has a part of it, he will likely come over the top to try and isolate and get UTG out of the hand. Then it is an easy fold.

If you just check, then that allows the guy with position to jump in and attempt to steal with what possibly could be the worst hand.


This is exactly why I liked the play, but I think its a move you can only use once in a long while.



Posted Thu Jan 05, 2006 3:32 pm GMT by TheSalche
Dat_Dude wrote:
The button is definitely another variable in this hand, but if you bet, then you are, in a way, taking position away from the Button. If you bet and he has no part of that flop, there is a great chance he will fold since he is sandwiched between the better (Hero) and the initial raiser. If he has a part of it, he will likely come over the top to try and isolate and get UTG out of the hand. Then it is an easy fold.


What if the button flat calls? Whats the play for the turn then? Check/fold is really the only option, but it feels really weak, and I think makes you look like a weak player if you follow this line.



Posted Thu Jan 05, 2006 4:39 pm GMT by Dat_Dude
TheSalche wrote:
Dat_Dude wrote:
The button is definitely another variable in this hand, but if you bet, then you are, in a way, taking position away from the Button. If you bet and he has no part of that flop, there is a great chance he will fold since he is sandwiched between the better (Hero) and the initial raiser. If he has a part of it, he will likely come over the top to try and isolate and get UTG out of the hand. Then it is an easy fold.


What if the button flat calls? Whats the play for the turn then? Check/fold is really the only option, but it feels really weak, and I think makes you look like a weak player if you follow this line.


I am just thinking about this as if I were the button. If I had the Ace and it was bet into me with me sanwiched, I would try and get it to heads up by raising. If I didn't have a part of the flop, it is time to let it go since the button doesn't know what first position is going to do.

Don't get me wrong, this is a risky play but with the board pairing, typically the first person to bet at it wins it. I think of it like this:
1) Do I check/fold without ever getting information about my opponents and cut my losses while they are minimal?
or
2) Do I take a stab at the pot with a decent chance to take it down if neither opponent has an A or Q.

I just think Option 2 is good because it has the potential to win the pot, but if you end up folding at least you were sure your hand was no good.



Posted Sun Jan 08, 2006 8:58 pm GMT by Ciso_B
i think it is +ev against one opponent but against 2 i dont think so.Especially since you are betting over 1/2 the pot.Just my thoughts anyway.





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