A General Theory of PP's and Sets in Limit |
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Posted Tue Jan 10, 2006 3:13 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
I'm curious to know people's opinions on this subject. My own views have changed greatly over time, from playing highly aggressive with almost any pair to only limping when I'm getting 7.5-to-1 pot odds, to now finding a comfortable middle road. Specifically, I interesting in hashing out a mathematical theory of when pocket pairs become profitable, if you plan only on seeing the flop to see if one can flop a set.
A few notes:
1. This applies mostly to small pairs, 7's and below. With 8's and above, you may have other chances to win the pot, like 3 under cards coming.
2. I'm speaking primarily of loose games with poor and unpredictable players.
Since the odds of flopping a set are 7.5-to-1 against, the end payoff should be greater than 7.5-to-1. Initially, I had thought this to be a highly difficult feat, but I realized that once you flop a set, most of the money you're putting in is being matched by "free" money from players with little or no pot equity.
The way I figure it,
*When you flop a set and the flop is uncoordinated (ie no obvious straight or flush draw), you will probably win the pot at least 90% of the time.
*Even when a straight or flush draw is present, given the chances of improving to a full house, your win rate will probably be above 50%.
*Whether you play a small pair hoping to flop a set or not is not only dependent on how loose or passive your opponents are before the flop, but how liable they are to pay you off with junk hands after the flop.
*In most games where players play badly, I will not slowplay sets, because most players will call 1 small bet (at least) on the flop, and will have more incentive to stay in the bigger pot on the turn.
For most pairs, I've figured that they're almost all profitable in the long run as long as there are at least 3-4 other players in the pot with you. Pairs also gain more value as your position improves, more players enter the pot, or you're able to get free cards.
Generally, in the loose $3/$6, $4/$8, and $6/$12 games I play in, I play the majority of my pocket pairs, especially after early position. If the game is passive, I might play any pair from any position, especially if I figure a lot of players will call me down.
I'd like to hear thoughts from other players.
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Posted Tue Jan 10, 2006 1:19 pm GMT by Skribbles
Well I know its probably wrong, but I almost never fold a PP pre-flop. The only instance would be if the pot is raised with only 1 player in or 3 bets coming to me. I feel that the strength of a set against a random donk is just too much to pass on.
Slowplaying: I don't know if I'd call it slowplaying; but I normally wait till the turn to start raising. Getting an extra bet on the turn is just as good as getting an extra two on the flop. Of course with position and ultra aggresive players raising I'll jam the pot as much as posssible.
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