Question for you SnG statisticians |
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Posted Sun Jan 15, 2006 1:44 pm GMT by Geno
What is a good ITM % do you think? Let's say the tables are 9 handed and the top 3 are paid. The games are not turbo crapfests.
So far after 40 games (it's still a small sample but it's gonna grow  ) my ITM stat is 45%. Usually I don't care for stats but I'm interested to see whether I ought to be above or below 50% just for shits and giggles.
PS. So far all SnG have been at the same buy-in
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Posted Sun Jan 15, 2006 1:50 pm GMT by zinn0
45% ITM is very impressive Geno. I'm hovering right around 42% at the moment. My sample size is also pretty small, only 160 SnG's. I'm not sure anything over 50% is sustainable.
Posted Tue Jan 17, 2006 11:10 am GMT by Tadzio
31% ITM, with an average finishing position of 3.25. I think this makes me a bubble boy. If I can make my play a little more solid 4-handed my ITM% should improve dramatically (along with my winnings). Any tips?
BTW Geno, 45% sounds godly.
Posted Tue Jan 17, 2006 11:42 am GMT by screwthepooch
All stats below are from 12/31 through today:
I'm at 37% ITM for 9 person tourney's on FTP
Out of 89 sample size:
12 Firsts
11 Seconds
11 thirds
6 fourths
12 Fifth
7 sixths
10 sevenths
9 eighths
11 ninths
Breakdown in amounts:
$55 = 40% ITM, but net -$111 for 5 tourney's
$33 = 32.6% ITM, but net -$366 for 49 tourney's
$22 = 38% ITM net +$172.00 for 29 tourney's
$75 = 44% ITM net + $492.90 for 9 tourney's
The $75 calculation is kind of tricky because on FTP I usually get a $75 token by paying $26 and taking top 5 in an 18 person tourney and then play the $75 9 person. I calculated the net as if I paid $75 each time.
Net result is that I suck unless the $ amount is either low or high, but not in between!
Truth is that my numbers used to be better, but I think i'm playing too loose lately and multi-tabling with MTT's at the same time.
On the plus side, the 18 person token tourney's on FTP (called tier II) are awesome. $26 fee and top 5 get a $75 token, 6th gets $54
Out of 34 attempts, I have gotten 14 tokens and $54 prize once for 44% ITM.
I've used the tokens to make $492.90 from the 9 person $75 tourney's and $1409.98 by playing their 8pm $75 MTT.
ScrewThePooch
Posted Tue Jan 17, 2006 2:23 pm GMT by Geno
| Tadzio wrote: | | BTW Geno, 45% sounds godly. |
ITM is a horribly skewed statistic though because despite my ITM now being 48% a few games later, I'm still down overall. It's an interesting relative measure I guess but since 1st is worth the same as 2nd PLUS 3rd if you don't hit anything other than 3rd place finishes, you can easily be a losing player despite a high ITM.
Here is the math 
9 man tourney payout = 50%/30%/20%
You play x games and when you finish ITM it is ALWAYS 3rd place.
The prize pool = 9xbuy-in (less 10% fee - $11 game is $10 in the pool)
If you achieve a ITM less than 61% you can be a losing player:
100,000 games at $11 = 100,000x$11 = $110,000
ITM 61% @3rd place = 0.61x100,000x$18 = $109,800
Net profit/loss = -$200
The actual figure is 61 and one-ninth percent ITM to break even assuming all 3rd places.
The quick math to work out the break-even ITM% is (buy-in+fee / 3rd place payout) but that is less intuitive
For a 10-person SnG, the ITM break even % is lower of course because 3rd is worth 20% of 10xbuy-in less fee which is 55% assuming a 50/30/20 payout ratio.
To sum up, ITM means nothing unless you can take at least a few 1st and 2nd places - ROI means a whole lot more.
Posted Tue Jan 17, 2006 4:24 pm GMT by UrAteUp
I was keeping track of my SNG play but stopped way back in November(started keeping track back in July). Looking back over my old records for those 4-5 months I played 175 SNG's at a cost of about $130. My ITM was a little over 52%. Again this is a small sample and probably isn't a good representation of the average player who has a large sample size. I also calculated my ROI and it is right at 40%. I feel my ITM and ROI were so high because I play micro-limit SNG's.
I have since cashed out my poker account and only have $10.00 left in it. Slowly I am working toward building it back up (let me say very slowly too...  ).
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