Posted Thu Jan 19, 2006 9:36 am GMT by Loonbat
Down to 4 people at a SnG, sitting on the button. Blinds are 100/200 and there is one shortstack with about 900 chips, sitting to my left. Hero has about 2900 chips and is third in chips (albeit barely). Picks up JJ and UTG (with a few more chips than the hero) pushes all-in ...
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Posted Thu Jan 19, 2006 9:59 am GMT by Dat_Dude
Folding is an extremely tight play here, but the problem is that the short stack has yet to act. If you fold, he very well may call with any Ace, King, or even suited cards and be dominated by the big stack. On the other hand, if you call, then short stack can see that you are at risk of being knocked out on the bubble and could easily fold and make the money if you lose.
You have to give credit to the big stack for a decent hand, IMO. He knows that the short stack is ready to pop, so he must be confident that if he does indeed get a call from the short stack, he would be in a good position to take him out.
The question of the hour is: What is more important to you at this point?
1) Getting in a better position to win the tourney, but risking making nothing?
2) Almost guaranteeing making the money, but making an extremely tight fold to do so?
I am going to predict what happened: Hero folds his JJ, Short stack calls the all-in. Initial raiser shows 99 or TT while Short Stack shows something like KQ, KJ. The board misses both hands and the raiser takes down the pot, which would have been won by Hero if he had stayed in.
Am I way off??
Posted Thu Jan 19, 2006 11:29 am GMT by Hurricane Ham
I play to win. I call. Unless UTG is a real weird player, I can't imagine pushing so much with aces kings or queens and not getting as much value out of them at this stage in the tournament. If he's got one of the three hands that beat me, so be it, make a note, fire up another one. I'm willing to take the chance to nearly knock out one guy with another shortstack at the table, putting me at a near guaranteed second with a chance of having the chiplead going into heads up. You've also got a premium hand in case shortstack decides to call as well, and his calling range is very wide at this point with a chance to triple up, so there's a decent chance you knock him out.
I see it as UTG doesn't want to play postflop with a middling pair, but every now and again will turn up a monster.
Posted Thu Jan 19, 2006 11:44 am GMT by UrAteUp
Call and see the flop. The bubble is a pretty tough time to be playing an SNG but with premium hands like PP you can come out of it in good position to take it all the way home.
Now my guess is you laid down the JJ and a J hit the board. But since your threw it away the AJ being played by the original better won the hand, knocked out the short stack and gave him a really big chip lead. Come on and tell me how right I am now...  .
Posted Thu Jan 19, 2006 12:20 pm GMT by Loonbat
If I told you now, it would ruin the surprise ...
Posted Thu Jan 19, 2006 12:24 pm GMT by Dat_Dude
| UrAteUp wrote: | | Call and see the flop. |
If he calls, he will get to see the flop, turn and river. It would put him all in.
Posted Thu Jan 19, 2006 4:19 pm GMT by Phil14312
How many chips does everyone else have? Without a read (like this guy pushing every other hand) I fold. Why risk it when you can almost guarantee third, and still have a good shot at first when shorty gets knocked out?
Posted Thu Jan 19, 2006 4:34 pm GMT by snoogins47
It's close. What hands and with what probability do you think UTG is pushing here? It's so in the middle that somebody that our opponent is going to be the key factor. Somebody pushing a very wide range of hands probably makes this a clear call, but somebody with a tighter range of hands, probably gives the edge to folding.
Posted Thu Jan 19, 2006 4:51 pm GMT by UrAteUp
| Dat_Dude wrote: | | UrAteUp wrote: | | Call and see the flop. |
If he calls, he will get to see the flop, turn and river. It would put him all in. |
Shoot, thanks Dat. I misread that part. Now after re-reading it I am inclined to change my mind here and say let it go. JJ is only the 4th best PP you can get. That means there are 3 others out there that he could have. Let the short stack give him a call.
Although, I am not sure I could pratice what I preach here...I might just have to call. I guess it depends on my read of the other players.
Posted Fri Jan 20, 2006 12:25 pm GMT by Loonbat
The result:
It was tough, but I called ... it was a race between my Js and his AQo - he won.
Since the ss was in the small, I wasn't necessarily expecting a call. The one making the all-in had mixed it up, so I didn't put him on the overpairs. Actually, with the raise, I was expecting an underpair which I would dominate. Ah well ...
Posted Mon Jan 23, 2006 4:12 pm GMT by TheSalche
Surprisingly ... you should fold here.
Ran the numbers through SnGPT, essentially calculates the EV of calling and folding here ... from what I gathered from your info, the UTG has more chips than you, so I put in 3100, you're the button with 2900, SB is shorty with 900 and I guess BB is big stack ... I gave him an arbitrary number of 4000 (shouldn't make a big difference).
It turned out to be -EV, even if the UTG has a huge pushrange (I mean ... down to 98s). The smaller the push range, the less EV this is. I believe the main reason why you have to fold here is that the blinds are so small, theres no reason to risk most of your stack on what will most likely be a coinflip.
You should call here with KK and AA only.
Posted Mon Jan 23, 2006 5:58 pm GMT by TxShadow
| TheSalche wrote: | Surprisingly ... you should fold here.
Ran the numbers through SnGPT, essentially calculates the EV of calling and folding here ... from what I gathered from your info, the UTG has more chips than you, so I put in 3100, you're the button with 2900, SB is shorty with 900 and I guess BB is big stack ... I gave him an arbitrary number of 4000 (shouldn't make a big difference).
It turned out to be -EV, even if the UTG has a huge pushrange (I mean ... down to 98s). The smaller the push range, the less EV this is. I believe the main reason why you have to fold here is that the blinds are so small, theres no reason to risk most of your stack on what will most likely be a coinflip.
You should call here with KK and AA only. |
Glad you posted that. My response was going to be that I would fold. I wouldn't risk that many chips especially on the bubble. You have to assume that it is most likely going to be a race where you are only a slight favorite.
Where have you been by the way? 
Posted Mon Jan 23, 2006 6:13 pm GMT by Loonbat
| TxShadow wrote: |
Where have you been by the way? |
You talking to me?!?!
lol - well, not prison (as was speculated) ... just been doing my thing and not trolling the forum from work. But, I've reached another mini plateau with my game and wanted to come back and see things in a new light.
Collectively this group has great advice and plenty of experience. If I wanted merely psycho-babble from the socially inept MENSA wanna bes, I'd be over at 2+2. If I want practical advice that's not fully steeped in theory, I'll come here ... it's grittier, and thus, better.
Posted Mon Jan 23, 2006 7:16 pm GMT by TxShadow
| Loonbat wrote: | | TxShadow wrote: |
Where have you been by the way? |
You talking to me?!?!
lol - well, not prison (as was speculated) ... just been doing my thing and not trolling the forum from work. But, I've reached another mini plateau with my game and wanted to come back and see things in a new light.
Collectively this group has great advice and plenty of experience. If I wanted merely psycho-babble from the socially inept MENSA wanna bes, I'd be over at 2+2. If I want practical advice that's not fully steeped in theory, I'll come here ... it's grittier, and thus, better. |
Actually, I was referring to Salche. Hadn't seen him post in a while. I am glad you're here too though :D
Posted Mon Jan 23, 2006 7:22 pm GMT by suitedaces84
| TxShadow wrote: | | Where have you thesalche been by the way? |
His girlfriend won't let him play more than an hour a week.
Posted Tue Jan 24, 2006 7:35 pm GMT by TheSalche
| suitedaces84 wrote: | | TxShadow wrote: | | Where have you thesalche been by the way? |
His girlfriend won't let him play more than an hour a week. |
You've totally been waiting to whip that one out on me ...
I actually am thinking about taking a pretty long term break from poker till I can get myself better situated here at college. Look for a post from me soon about that possibility ...
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