Preflop Raiser and Rags on the Flop, Turn, and River |
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Posted Fri Jan 27, 2006 1:20 pm GMT by lwestatbus
I've found myself a few times in a position where I have had mediocre cards Ax/Kx, J8, or something like that (cards I'd not normally play and certainly not against a raise) in the big blind, a raise in front of me, and a lot of callers. I.e., getting 9 or 10 to one to call. The flop will then be rags except that I'll make a pair with the rags. Looking ahead, the turn and river also turn out to not be scary.
The typical pattern is that the raiser will bet out, most others will fold on either the flop or the turn, and I'm sitting there with a small pair, a reasonable amount of money in the pot, and an aggressive bettor.
In my unscientific observations a preflop raiser (sorry--this is 0.50/1.00 fixed limit) will have a pocket pair about 40% of the time, two big cards 40% of the time, and be a complete wacko 20% of the time. Again, very unscientific.
Twice I've won pretty large pots (once live 2/4 limit) when I stuck it out, called the bets, and found that the person was holding a big ace but never made a hand. I also find that when I have two big cards, don't make the flop, that I keep betting out and about half the time get everyone to fold.
Is there a science to playing big cards when the flop is rags and is there a science to playing against a raiser when the flop and turn are rags. Oh, a couple of times I summoned up the nerve to raise the raiser after the raggedy flop. One time he folded and once he raised me right back and I got out of Dodge.
Anyway, any thoughts would be welcome.
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Posted Fri Jan 27, 2006 1:33 pm GMT by TheSalche
You're getting great pot odds preflop .. but don't forget the chance of you winning the hand includes the turn and river not just the flop, so its a little deceiving.
In a big multiway pot stuff like Ax and Kx is less likely to win since somebody may hold a stronger ace or king. Hands like these are very likely to become the 2nd best hand, and end up costly you more money than you will make with them.
Posted Fri Jan 27, 2006 10:45 pm GMT by suitedaces84
| lwestatbus wrote: | | I've found myself a few times in a position where I have had mediocre cards Ax/Kx, J8, or something like that (cards I'd not normally play and certainly not against a raise) in the big blind, a raise in front of me, and a lot of callers. I.e., getting 9 or 10 to one to call. |
You're ignoring the effective odds. Here's a quick definition and example:
Implied odds include pot odds and the bets you are likely to win on future streets. Implied odds may make it correct to call when you have bad pot odds. Implied odds are typically used with a drawing hand, where you will almost never put more money in the pot with a loser. Effective odds include pot odds and the bets you are likely to lose on future streets. Effective odds may make it correct to fold when you have good pot odds. Effective odds are typically used with a made hand that has a very small chance of improving and will very rarely allow you to fold.
Let’s say it’s the turn and the pot contains five big bets. Given your hand, the board and your read on your opponent you know you’re a four to one dog to win the hand regardless of what river is. Your opponent bets. Your opponent is aggressive so you know he will bet the river too. Pot odds tell you to call here. You’re getting six to one on your money and you’re only a four to one dog. So you call. Your opponent bets again on the river, as you knew he would. Now you’re getting eight to one, so you call again.
Neither one of the calls you made was bad by itself. Now, let’s look at the combination of the two. On the turn the pot had five bets in it. Your opponent put in two more. You were also forced to put in two of your own. So, your effective odds were seven to two or three and a half to one. Remember, you were a four to one dog to win. Due to effective odds folding to your opponent’s turn bet would have been better than calling down.
Certain situations are unavoidable. If you think about the entire hand and make a plan of some kind prior to entering a pot, you'll find yourself in fewer difficult situations.
It’s essential to consider all the factors. Winning poker players are players who consider more factors than their opponents and apply those factors to their decisions better. If you're playing each street without regard to the next you'll make a lot of bad decisions.
Wiffing the flop in a big pot with an A is another one of those ugly spots. And there is no formula to play correctly after you wiff. It sucks to put money in with a hand that may be dead and sucks to fold a potential winner a large pot. But one of the biggest and most common mistakes is betting the river w/A-high (except for very specific circumstances). If you've been doing this, please stop.
Posted Sat Jan 28, 2006 12:56 pm GMT by Loonbat
| suitedaces84 wrote: | You're ignoring the effective odds. Here's a quick definition and example:
Implied odds include pot odds and the bets you are likely to win on future streets. Implied odds may make it correct to call when you have bad pot odds. Implied odds are typically used with a drawing hand, where you will almost never put more money in the pot with a loser. Effective odds include pot odds and the bets you are likely to lose on future streets. Effective odds may make it correct to fold when you have good pot odds. Effective odds are typically used with a made hand that has a very small chance of improving and will very rarely allow you to fold.
Let’s say it’s the turn and the pot contains five big bets. Given your hand, the board and your read on your opponent you know you’re a four to one dog to win the hand regardless of what river is. Your opponent bets. Your opponent is aggressive so you know he will bet the river too. Pot odds tell you to call here. You’re getting six to one on your money and you’re only a four to one dog. So you call. Your opponent bets again on the river, as you knew he would. Now you’re getting eight to one, so you call again.
Neither one of the calls you made was bad by itself. Now, let’s look at the combination of the two. On the turn the pot had five bets in it. Your opponent put in two more. You were also forced to put in two of your own. So, your effective odds were seven to two or three and a half to one. Remember, you were a four to one dog to win. Due to effective odds folding to your opponent’s turn bet would have been better than calling down.
Certain situations are unavoidable. If you think about the entire hand and make a plan of some kind prior to entering a pot, you'll find yourself in fewer difficult situations.
It’s essential to consider all the factors. Winning poker players are players who consider more factors than their opponents and apply those factors to their decisions better. If you're playing each street without regard to the next you'll make a lot of bad decisions.
Wiffing the flop in a big pot with an A is another one of those ugly spots. And there is no formula to play correctly after you wiff. It sucks to put money in with a hand that may be dead and sucks to fold a potential winner a large pot. But one of the biggest and most common mistakes is betting the river w/A-high (except for very specific circumstances). If you've been doing this, please stop. |
Wow - I'm in awe.
In all seriousness Suited, I'm ready to see you get a degree in journalism and start writing for Cardplayer or the like. Great stuff ...
Posted Mon Jan 30, 2006 8:35 am GMT by lwestatbus
Well, Suited's reply was great. My definition of great is giving me a whole new idea and this certainly did (the plan the whole hand idea).
I got in a couple of hours of play this weekend before reading Suited's reply and had a chance to try my own thoughts out. What I'd decided to try is to definitely see the flop getting 7 or 9 to one on my call. When I make the weak pair I check to the bettor. If the bettor runs everyone else out of the pot I will call to the river or to a scary card. I adjust this based on what I've seen the raiser raise with in the past.
Most raisers will raise with a big ace or king as well as with the much rarer wired big pair. I think that my made hand is good against just that one player most of the time (I think without having run the probability distribution on big pairs vs. overcards) unless a big card comes off. As suited pointed out, I continue to get good odds round by round with a made hand and a few outs of my own.
So the key seems to be whether it gets to heads up. My thinking, backed up by unscientific observations, is that a third person hanging around in the pot is likely to have a middle wired pair. So if a third person stays in I'm out of there except...
... if I can see the turn for one small bet I'll do that.
A couple of times I've also used a check-raise on the flop with a raggedy pair as an information gathering tool.
One theme I've seen in my favorite book is that spending one small bet can be a good strategy in a number of circumstances centered around a largish pot.
Now I need to think about Suited's great analysis and filter it through my thinking.
Thanks to all!!!
Posted Mon Jan 30, 2006 4:31 pm GMT by supafrey
yeah suited's post is pretty much a good intro to the stuff. Basically - just consider what action is most likely to occur on later streets if you WERE to call the current bet. combine the hand into your decision.
however, if you can narrow the field a little bit, it's shocking how often you'll win with even a pair or a reraise in this situation. sometime's it is worth it to call these huge pots down with ANYTHING and just pray.
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