Back at the timeless question... |
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Posted Tue Feb 07, 2006 8:30 pm GMT by AHBrownell
I'm still struggling with math in NL poker. In limit it seems like you have a lot more "correct" and incorrect" calls/folds. In NL I look at a nearly full pot bet and wonder if it actually is incorrect to call - and the crazy thing is I know the math...
1-2 NL table.
So you limp in late position behind two other players with A 4 in late position. Both blinds call. Five players see the flop which comes: TK8 . The pot is $10. Small Blind bets $10. Everyone folds to you. You need 5:1 odds to call here, but you are only getting 2:1 so this is a clear fold, right? Well if you call here you may hit your flush on the turn and if you do your opponent is less likely to put you on a draw because you called an oversized bet. He may be willing to bet again on the turn and river and you may scoop up his whole stack.
What I'm getting at is the implied odds. I cannot make this an easy black and white decision in my mind. Now I realize poker is a game of situations and the opponents are the clear factor in deciding these types of plays - however, do you think its better to err on the side of caution here? A reraise, even all-in, might even be an interesting play to consider occasionally - you would win 1/3 if you did so and were called; and how often would you be called?
Poker is all about the long term - making lots of small decisions that add up in the long run. For me its about playing super tight and only entering pots with premium hands unless given good odds. Not playing speculative hands (small/medium pps, suited connectors, and Axs) is clearly a stupid style because it makes play too obvious. I've been limping with these hands in the late position - and that works okay.
I worry that I will be either tossing these too much on the flop when I hit a draw and am facing a large bet or calling oversized bets more often than I should be.
Any recommendations to tighten up this part of any poker player's game?
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Posted Tue Feb 07, 2006 8:46 pm GMT by tame_deuces
NL isn't 'fixxed'. Some people play 100NL, but they probably wager 5xtimes as much money in a given session of 100 than a tight player would do, and they can still be winners.
The key is the implied odds that you are speaking off. It may seem a little silly to say that any two can win...but there are are alot of factors entwined.
The action junkie who never misses a bet when he hits a draw, he'll probably get more action on strong hands too...dropping 2 buy-ins is nothing to him. To the careful tight player something like that could be a disaster. He wants to get his money in when he has the best of it...couldn't care less of the action junkie...he wants his money in a good bet somewhere in the session, and will sit all night waiting patiently for that one moment.
So much money can potentially go in on the turn in NL that some looseness preflop and on the flop isn't all bad. But it isn't necessary better either.
A good rule to live by is that as long as you draw to a strong hand in NL you can cut the pot odds some slack...especially if you have position, because alot of players won't stop betting just because that third heart hit....and most people will pay off a respectably sized bet if they have a good hand.
Flushes definitively have lower implied odds than straights though. And if you are drawing to the 4th heart...all action will probably be killed. Straights generally pay better than flushes and double-belly-buster straights usually pays best of all straight draws.
'Pushing' with a draw is ofcourse all well and good, but its better to run the draw as you would a bluff...maybe represent a hand you don't have.
Posted Tue Feb 07, 2006 10:45 pm GMT by supafrey
Don't push with a high flush draw unless you DEFINITELY want a caller. (errr.. if you're playing against smarties, I mean)
Not to take the wind out of your sails, but this has been the most common move I've seen lately (6 months) at the low limit NL tables. Apparantly everyone got their hands on a Brunson book and think this is God's gift to poker strategy. I call all in pushes on the flop with ANYTHING nowadays because of it.
Posted Wed Feb 08, 2006 12:26 am GMT by suitedaces84
| supafrey wrote: | | Don't push with a high flush draw unless you DEFINITELY want a caller. (errr.. if you're playing against smarties, I mean) |
In what situation would you want a caller?
Posted Wed Feb 08, 2006 7:29 am GMT by supafrey
| suitedaces84 wrote: | | supafrey wrote: | | Don't push with a high flush draw unless you DEFINITELY want a caller. (errr.. if you're playing against smarties, I mean) |
In what situation would you want a caller? |
Congratulations, you caught my point. ^_^
Posted Wed Feb 08, 2006 3:32 pm GMT by AHBrownell
Supafrey, consider that the times you have the nuts and you push - people will also call you. It may be profitable in the long run... Damn gray areas!
Posted Wed Feb 08, 2006 3:38 pm GMT by tame_deuces
| suitedaces84 wrote: | | supafrey wrote: | | Don't push with a high flush draw unless you DEFINITELY want a caller. (errr.. if you're playing against smarties, I mean) |
In what situation would you want a caller? |
When we win. Duh.
(yes, I'm kidding for those of you who wondered). 
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