Accounting for Unlikely Nuts |
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Posted Thu Feb 09, 2006 11:38 am GMT by lwestatbus
In the last two days I was involved in three hands where very unlikely nuts destroyed otherwise monster hands. I was on the receiving end of two and the serving end of one. So first a quick overview of the hands and then the meat of the question.
All are playing FL 0.50/1.00 ring games.
Hand 1. I have K 9 on the button. Limped to me, I limp, small blind limps, big blind checks. Flop is 4 4 7. Checks to me, I bet, three callers including big blind (hereafter known as Villain). Turn is A giving me nut flush. River is a blank. On turn and river rounds I cap the betting with Villain. I put him on trips or a smaller flush. He didn't raise or bet out before the turn so I didn't put him on AA. I worried a little about A4. Turns out he had 47 and flopped the full house.
Hand 2. I have A9 in late position, I call, and button folds. Flop is 4K9 rainbow. Checks to me (last to act) and I bet. Couple of callers, including same Villain from Hand 1. Turn is another 9 giving me a set of nines. I bet, Villain raises, I reraise and he calls. River is a 4 giving K9944 on the board and I have nines full of fours. Villain and I now cap the betting. I was worried that he had K9 but the SOB turned over 44 for quad fours.
Hand 3. I'm in middle position with TT. Couple of bettors, I limp, button raises, I call. Flop is ATT. OMG: I flopped quads. I slow play, checks to button who bets, everyone else folds, I call. Turn and river are blanks and button and I cap betting on both of those rounds. Button had AA for Aces full.
OK, All three hands involved really strong hands that were definitely not the nuts getting clobbered by the nuts or something darn close to it. All three winning hands were statistically unlikely and Hand 1 was also a hand unlikely to have been played (other than in an unraised big blind--duhhh) though there was a more likely killer hand (K9) possible.
When you have a really strong hand (let's define that as nut straight with no flush possible, nut flush with no straight flush possible, or full house, how much weight do you give to the possibility of a better hand when you don't have the absolute nuts? What would cause you to constrain your betting? How does your thinking change in limit vs. no limit ring vs. tournament?
I remember watching Jennifer Harmon's Queens full get clobbered by a straight flush early in this year's WSOP.
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Posted Thu Feb 09, 2006 11:54 am GMT by Soup_dog
Playing no limit ring table last night. I am heads up against another player post flop... sizaeable bets. I hit the nut flush on the turn. The board is not paired so no full house. I pot it, he calls. River is a blank. So at this point the only hand that can beat me is a straight flush.
Of course I am going to bet the heck out of it. You can't live in fear of the miracle hands.
Naturally, he had the str8 flush and I'm busy buying more chips. I would still play it the same way.
Posted Thu Feb 09, 2006 1:43 pm GMT by Gunslinger
If you have a boat, like you in Hand 2 and the villain in Hand 3, you play it strong and if you get beat by that small chance then oh well, like Soup said, you'd play it the same way every time.
My take on Hand 1 is, when the A comes that completes a likely flush, the other guy HAS to be aware of it, unless you've seen him be a complete moron. If he is still capping two betting rounds after this point, you have to think he knows the flush is there and he can beat it. Especially if he was in the BB and saw the flop for free, he could have any two cards.
This happened to me last night, I had 76o in the BB, and saw the flop for free. I flopped two pair, with 2 hearts on the board. Turn was 7 , completing some guys flush but giving me the boat. He didn't realize I could have any two cards, and paid me off very well.
Posted Thu Feb 09, 2006 3:34 pm GMT by UrAteUp
quote="lwestatbus"
Hand 1. I have K 9 on the button. Limped to me, I limp, small blind limps, big blind checks. Flop is 4 4 7. Checks to me, I bet, three callers including big blind (hereafter known as Villain). Turn is A giving me nut flush. River is a blank. On turn and river rounds I cap the betting with Villain. I put him on trips or a smaller flush. He didn't raise or bet out before the turn so I didn't put him on AA. I worried a little about A4. Turns out he had 47 and flopped the full house.
Hand 2. I have A9 in late position, I call, and button folds. Flop is 4K9 rainbow. Checks to me (last to act) and I bet. Couple of callers, including same Villain from Hand 1. Turn is another 9 giving me a set of nines. I bet, Villain raises, I reraise and he calls. River is a 4 giving K9944 on the board and I have nines full of fours. Villain and I now cap the betting. I was worried that he had K9 but the SOB turned over 44 for quad fours.
Hand 3. I'm in middle position with TT. Couple of bettors, I limp, button raises, I call. Flop is ATT. OMG: I flopped quads. I slow play, checks to button who bets, everyone else folds, I call. Turn and river are blanks and button and I cap betting on both of those rounds. Button had AA for Aces full.
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Hand 1: Raise if it is limped to you. You let hands into the pot that most likely wouldn't come into a raised pot. 47 was probably one of those hands.
Hand 2: Did you limp in? If so you shouldn't. Raise here as well. A9 is not as good as AK but it will knock those pesky hands that shouldn't see the flop.
Hand 3: Again I say raise here. Slow playing and trapping are nice but get your money's worth out of it too. You can bet that the button puts you on a set and but not quads. So he would call your raise or re-raise. I know I would if I had an A's full boat.
Posted Thu Feb 09, 2006 5:41 pm GMT by golddog
To answer your question, I'll be concerned when I've got the wrong end of a full house and it's possible (maybe even likely) that someone has the big end.
Let's say the board is T9948 and I've got 44. Bad full house. Be careful.
About the only time I've folded a full house is with two pair on the board, I'm matching the wrong one, and it's quite likely from the betting/play the villian matches the top end.
In the big picture, though, these unusual hands are out toward the end of the bell curve. Playing them strong is probably the long-term winner.
Posted Fri Feb 10, 2006 12:28 pm GMT by lwestatbus
| golddog wrote: | | In the big picture, though, these unusual hands are out toward the end of the bell curve. Playing them strong is probably the long-term winner. |
This is my thinking. I put up the post wondering if anyone had any more science behind the opinion. Thanks to all who replied.
Posted Fri Feb 10, 2006 11:04 pm GMT by suitedaces84
Hand 1: Unless villian was a maniac you gave way too much action. 3-betting the turn is no good. Call his c/r and then raise him on a blank river if you must. This will win the same amount when you're ahead and lose the less when you're behind. Since you 3-bet just puke and call down.
Hand 2: Again, you gave too much action. I doubt you're beat here, but after he puts in the 2nd or 3rd bet it's probably gonna be a split pot at best. Just call down.
After each bet that goes in it's less likely that you're ahead. It will be very rare for that number to get low enough that you should fold, so don't. After two or three big bets it's usually best to just call down with a strong but easily beatable holding (like hands 1 and 2). Maybe the players are a little crazier at your games but I know that's the case in mine.
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