Posted Wed Feb 15, 2006 1:51 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
PokerStars Game #3978278450: Tournament #19768493, Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2006/02/15 - 01:41:44 (ET)
Table '19768493 1' Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: HEAD JOB (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: josha222 (1500 in chips)
Seat 3: TAHOEMAN (1500 in chips)
Seat 4: Berznarf (1500 in chips)
Seat 5: JBELLE (1500 in chips)
Seat 6: Turn_Prophet (1500 in chips)
Seat 7: WattsBarTN (1500 in chips)
Seat 8: djelove1 (1500 in chips)
Seat 9: Brian-Mann (1500 in chips)
josha222: posts small blind 10
TAHOEMAN: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Turn_Prophet  
Berznarf: folds
JBELLE has timed out
JBELLE: folds
JBELLE is sitting out
Turn_Prophet: raises 20 to 40
WattsBarTN: folds
djelove1: folds
Brian-Mann: folds
HEAD JOB: folds
josha222: calls 30
TAHOEMAN: folds
*** FLOP ***   
josha222: checks
Turn_Prophet: bets 50
JBELLE has returned
josha222: calls 50
*** TURN *** 
josha222: checks
Turn_Prophet: bets 100
josha222: calls 100
*** RIVER *** 
josha222: bets 1310 and is all-in
Turn_Prophet: ???
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Posted Wed Feb 15, 2006 2:44 am GMT by Skribbles
Uggg... T8 or QT. I'd prolly make the call. To many foosl in SNGs that would try and bluff.
Why such small bets? You bet half pot on flop and turn.
Posted Wed Feb 15, 2006 3:01 am GMT by Jauron
I'd call it just to teach myself not to play it like that next time, first few hands of a tourney are crazy, no need to try to out crazy them. I don't get tricky until the blinds start to mean something and I feel enough people, or the table has calmed down.
Honestly I can't see how you can call it, but I can't see how you can fold it. Flip a coin? Your probably ahead, straight there normally doesn't play it so hard, but some cats like to make monster moves once they make their miracle in hopes it gets paid off.
Posted Wed Feb 15, 2006 7:38 am GMT by zinn0
I make the crying call.
Posted Wed Feb 15, 2006 10:34 am GMT by UrAteUp
Call. I put him on two pair. I doubt he was playing JJ because he did not re-raise you pre-flop. I really can't say I put him on a straight but you never know. That opening raise was a bit weak. 3xBB raise would have gotten a 10Q hand to lay down pre-flop I feel but would have kept JJ right in there. After the flop and your set was made then push with a 3/4 pot bet. Make it high dollar for him to play a drawing hand and even worse for playing for two pair.
Posted Wed Feb 15, 2006 11:46 am GMT by red_pen
Fold. No question.
Some analysis:
Maybe you're ahead maybe not. But this isn't the issue. You're actually dealing with the intellect of villian. Maybe villian's a genius. Then again maybe he's a muppet.
I find 30% of the people a these level are muppets, 10% are geniuses, and 60% are ordinary.
No-one who is ordinary makes that huge bet either with or without the straight. So you can reasonably conclude that villian is not ordinary: you're dealing with either genius or muppetry. This means that 3 times out of 4 villian will be a muppet.
Now, if he's a muppet and it's a wild bluff, he'll be too stupid to stop himself doing it in the future when you have the nuts and you'll win long term if you fold; whereas if he's a muppet and he's got a straight, folding gives you the better long term prospect. Conclusion? Folding the majority of the time, is correct, as the majority of the time you're playing a muppet.
Posted Wed Feb 15, 2006 12:17 pm GMT by BeerWench13
Bet more on the flop and turn.
Though his all-in bet screams "I don't want a call!", I would still fold here. Why put your tournament on the line with the possibility that you let him catch up?
Posted Wed Feb 15, 2006 3:40 pm GMT by Johny
I put him on a busted flush draw, the overbet seems like a bad bluff. I've seen this line a lot where they'll call down with a draw/ weak pair and move-in when a scare card comes.
Posted Wed Feb 15, 2006 5:39 pm GMT by wEbMaStEr
| red_pen wrote: | Fold. No question.
Some analysis:
Maybe you're ahead maybe not. But this isn't the issue. You're actually dealing with the intellect of villian. Maybe villian's a genius. Then again maybe he's a muppet.
I find 30% of the people a these level are muppets, 10% are geniuses, and 60% are ordinary.
No-one who is ordinary makes that huge bet either with or without the straight. So you can reasonably conclude that villian is not ordinary: you're dealing with either genius or muppetry. This means that 3 times out of 4 villian will be a muppet.
Now, if he's a muppet and it's a wild bluff, he'll be too stupid to stop himself doing it in the future when you have the nuts and you'll win long term if you fold; whereas if he's a muppet and he's got a straight, folding gives you the better long term prospect. Conclusion? Folding the majority of the time, is correct, as the majority of the time you're playing a muppet. |
Genius!
red_pen, for me that is analysis of the year and we're only into Feb! I really hope i don't run into you on the tables.
This is a definite fold for me too. It is far too early to lay all your chips on the line. you really want to back up the 190 you have in the pot with your remaining 1310?
What your opp has in his hand is not even a consideration for me at this point, there is a lot of play left with 1310 chips, there is no play in 0 chips. You will have many more chances to build your stack up thru the rest of the game.
Let it slide and avoid this maniac/genius until you have a much better position (which will definately come)
Posted Wed Feb 15, 2006 5:42 pm GMT by wEbMaStEr
oh! and. if you called, i bet he had pocket 9's
Posted Wed Feb 15, 2006 6:12 pm GMT by 1988 TR
Call vs his 2 pair. :D
Posted Wed Feb 15, 2006 6:13 pm GMT by 1988 TR
| red_pen wrote: |
Now, if he's a muppet and it's a wild bluff, he'll be too stupid to stop himself doing it in the future when you have the nuts and you'll win long term if you fold; |
The problem is, you will likely not have the nuts against this player in the remaining part of this tournament, so you need to pick your spots. This set seems as good a spot as any.
Posted Wed Feb 15, 2006 7:18 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Ok, the end of the story is, I put him on two pair or a busted draw with a donkey play. KJ  seemed like a reasonable hand, but there's no reason he had to have even that good. And in a $5 SnG, I see donk plays like this way too often. This was a gamble situation in my mind, and I didn't think he would really bet like this with the nuts, so I called.
He turned over QT and took me out on hand one. Too bad for me I guess.
Thanks for the responses, guys. I think it really shows how unclear the decision is here. In retrospect, maybe I should have folded, but I don't want to let people get away with too much... if I had folded and he showed me something like AK, I would have been pretty pissed at myself.
As for why I bet so little, I was just trying to play a little smallball early on to get a feel for my opponents. I only doubled the blind for 2 reasons: one, I wanted to appear weak to any veterans on the table, and I wanted to get a sense of how much people respected a small raise, especially the two guys in the blinds. I bet small on the flop to induce action from the guy and just to make a tester bet. My sense was he had a draw or a 9. I bet half the pot again on the turn to feel him out--if the king helped him, I believed he would have raised and I could have reraised. If he had a flush draw, he wasn't getting odds to call anyway (as it turned out he had two draws and was probably correct to call).
Posted Wed Feb 15, 2006 7:24 pm GMT by Soup_dog
That shows a bit of a problem that I am trying to get away from. Far too often I am trying to play the "Sherrif" and prove that the villian is a donk.
I am starting to learn to let them prove they are a donk before I pull the gun on them.
Posted Sun Mar 05, 2006 2:04 am GMT by LeafsFan1122
| Soup_dog wrote: | That shows a bit of a problem that I am trying to get away from. Far too often I am trying to play the "Sherrif" and prove that the villian is a donk.
I am starting to learn to let them prove they are a donk before I pull the gun on them. |
Nice analagy. I seem to be suffering from the same problem. 
Posted Mon Mar 06, 2006 2:31 am GMT by TheSalche
at the end of the day your options for this hand are limited
preflop: raising here doesn't do too much good, i understand where you're coming from about 'feeling' out the other players, but are you really begging to be re-raised by a better hand?
flop: i suppose donk betting here is a decent idea since people with any kind of draws aren't folding, and it saves you some tough decisions later if a trouble card comes
turn: once the turn blanks on the straight and flush draws, you have to make a bigger bet, but again, draws are still probably going to call you since the blinds are so small
river: i'd make the call, throw a pillow when i saw the queen 10
this hand shows a leak in many of our games ... in retrospect it seems plainly obvious that you should fold this, because the draw came and you have a small portion of your chips committed to this pot
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