$250 Limit 6/12 pot, no showdown, what is your read? |
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Posted Tue Feb 21, 2006 3:22 pm GMT by Dave B
Aggressive table, average pot over $100 and raises preflop dont scare anyone.
Me: mid position w/ red Aces, early raise, I 3 bet, someone 4 bets, I cap at 5-4 callers
Flop A  10  9
Checked to me, I bet, blind raises, I 3 bet, still 2 callers.
Turn J , I am f*ck, I bet, all call
River Q checked to me, I check, LP bets, blind check raises, I fold and (in a rare unsportmanlike fashion show my AA), LP thinks about it and folds too-showing QJ.
Blind takes down a massive pot with something. What did he have? We never found out, but if you think about it, only one thing really makes sense.
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Posted Tue Feb 21, 2006 3:26 pm GMT by Dat_Dude
KK
Posted Tue Feb 21, 2006 4:23 pm GMT by Dave B
I can think of 2 reasons why KK doesnt make sense.
Posted Tue Feb 21, 2006 4:31 pm GMT by Phil14312
The really confusing part is the blind raising you on the flop. This is the same guy who takes down the pot, correct?
But, I can't see this guy rasing on a flush draw on the flop to face the field with 2 bets cold, however, I also don't think he could NOT c/r the turn, knowing it was very likely someone is drawing to a boat. But, to c/r the river would almost always mean flush.
However, I think this guy had AK . When no one c/r the turn and the 4th club didn't hit the river he must've thought his nut straight was good. Thats my decision, AK with K of clubs.
Posted Tue Feb 21, 2006 4:53 pm GMT by Dave B
Maybe, but I can think of two good reasons why he wouldnt have AK.
Posted Tue Feb 21, 2006 5:06 pm GMT by Dat_Dude
My next guess would be K 10 , but I wouldn't think anyone would give that much action preflop with this hand.
Posted Tue Feb 21, 2006 5:17 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| Dave B wrote: | | Maybe, but I can think of two good reasons why he wouldnt have AK. |
You'll have to elaborate, because almost the only hand I can see making it to the river played that way is A K here. K Q has to raise that turn.
Posted Tue Feb 21, 2006 5:25 pm GMT by Dat_Dude
quote="Sean_in_NJ" | Dave B wrote: | | K Q has to raise that turn. |
Do you typically see people raising (in this case, on the FLOP) with a gusthot straight draw and nut flush draw in limit?
Edit: Sorry, accidentally said turn when I meant flop.
Posted Tue Feb 21, 2006 5:31 pm GMT by Dat_Dude
quote="tame_deuces" | Dat_Dude wrote: | | Sean_in_NJ wrote: | | Dave B wrote: | | K Q has to raise that turn. |
Do you typically see people raising (in this case, on the turn) with a gusthot straight draw and nut flush draw in limit? |
KQ would have the straight. |
Sorry, I meant FLOP. The blind check/raised the FLOP. So on the flop he had the gutshot and flush draw. My apologies.
Posted Tue Feb 21, 2006 5:32 pm GMT by MJJ
quote="Dat_Dude" | Sean_in_NJ wrote: | | Dave B wrote: | | K Q has to raise that turn. |
Do you typically see people raising (in this case, on the turn) with a gusthot straight draw and nut flush draw in limit? |
Turn card would make str8, nut fl, and leave str8 fl draw (needs 10 ) going into river
Posted Tue Feb 21, 2006 7:18 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| Dat_Dude wrote: | | Sean_in_NJ wrote: | | K Q has to raise that turn. |
Do you typically see people raising (in this case, on the FLOP) with a gusthot straight draw and nut flush draw in limit? |
Yes. The reason it doesn't make sense is all the action preflop and then the call on the turn. The flop and river are the only streets that the KQ action does make sense.
Posted Tue Feb 21, 2006 7:56 pm GMT by 1988 TR
Since he raised you on the flop, AK is the only thing that makes a lot of sense to me.
Posted Tue Feb 21, 2006 10:44 pm GMT by Dave B
Like I said, I never saw his hand. But, he was a good player, so this is why I do not think he had AK:
The river is the 1st time that the other player in late position came out betting. So if you have AK, you need to fear a slow played flush, knowing that if you raise the on the turn, that big blind hand is not going to hang around for 2 big bets. You would be better off calling and raising on the river.
Also, now you made a str8 on the river, why wouldnt you bet out? If anyone missed, they certainly arent going to bet out with that board without the str8. If you check raise the river w/ the K, then you are for sure not going to get a call from someone who does not have a straight, and you will lose to anyone with a flush.
So the river check raise w/ a straight (KK or AK) is not going to win you any money, either take your chips back or lose 2-3 big bets.
Posted Tue Feb 21, 2006 10:46 pm GMT by Dave B
edit-post padding
Posted Tue Feb 21, 2006 11:28 pm GMT by Dat_Dude
So Dave, if this is so obvious, why don't you tell us what you think he had since it seems none of us are seeing it.
Am I the only one that gets a feeling like Dave actually is the hand in question? The blind and NOT the guy with Aces?
Posted Tue Feb 21, 2006 11:56 pm GMT by Dave B
I didnt say it was obvious. But to me, the only thing that makes sense is that he turned a flush-likely not even the K high flush, maybe just 10 8 .
Now, I am not sure I am right, but this is the only thing that makes sense to me.
Raise on the flop-sure, 5 way pot, flush draw and maybe a pair too for 2-5 more outs, this is real common.
Why not raise the turn if he hit then? Well, he is in perfect position acting just before someone (me) that has been betting out most of the hands when I take control. Why let a 3rd club scare me (his thinking)? So, he check to me, I bet. 4th club doesnt come, now he can check raise the river.
Check raising the turn doesnt get rid of anyone with a bigger club and/or a set-only someone w/ a weak chasing hand. Also, I am likely still going to bet the river if it is a blank-so he can check raise there and still get all the bets.
Now, everything goes in the toilet for his action when I dont bet the turn-now I would need to call 2 bets cold. Yes, I do it w/ AA, not AK unless I have a big club-which would river him.
The river Q gives him the chance to check raise because anyone with a K (very likely give the board and action) will bet out. They will also not fold to his raise since his flush is disguised.
This failed for him because he was against QJ w/ a busted open end str8 draw that went runner runner 2 pair and AA for a set.
Maybe I was a moron, but I didnt see a check raise w/ anything less than a flush and I put the other on a straight. The real interesting thing here is betting out w/ 2 pair on the river. He must have believed that we would need to fold a bigger hand for him to win.
Posted Wed Feb 22, 2006 12:50 am GMT by Phil14312
Dave you are saying this guy would check/call the turn and wait for a non-club to check/raise the river. But, this guy is good you say, he is giving everybody and their mother to draw to a flush/boat when he check/calls. He is in a perfect place to face the field with two-bets cold and at least get full value out of anyone drawing to a lone K or Q of clubs. If no club hits, het gets no values from those hands. If I have T 8 in this spot, I raise the turn everytime and twice on sundays, and I like to think I'm a good player  .
Checking/calling for him without the nut flush, hell even with the nut flush, is giving a huge overlay on the pot odds.
Posted Wed Feb 22, 2006 12:53 am GMT by Skribbles
| Phil14312 wrote: | I raise the turn everytime and twice on sundays, and I like to think I'm a good player .
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Either way it is played, anyone with the nut draw is correct in calling.
Posted Wed Feb 22, 2006 1:22 am GMT by Phil14312
| Skribbles wrote: | | Phil14312 wrote: | I raise the turn everytime and twice on sundays, and I like to think I'm a good player .
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Either way it is played, anyone with the nut draw is correct in calling. |
But just because it is correct to call with the nut draw doesn't mean if you have the flush you might as well not raise, which, I think you know but it seems like your statement is implying. Raising is more profitable for a flush even if it is correct for a draw to see the last card.
Posted Wed Feb 22, 2006 8:03 am GMT by Dave B
How is raising the turn the best play?
If you raise the turn, you lose any weak pair of aces and maybe 2 pairs or straight draws. So, a raise here will very likely isolate you heads up w/ a big hand or a big draw (bigger flush or set). I see a check raise on the turn getting 2 more big bets to call. Also, you are likely 15-30% to be rivered if one or both call. They arent going to fold a draw since there is over $200 in the pot and either draw is 15%+.
So I see a check raise on the turn being +2 big bets or -3 15-30% of the time.
If you call the turn and check raise the river, you likely get 3-4 big bets more if a club doesnt come and -2 if a you are rivered by a bigger club or board pair.
I understand protecting a hand, but in big pots if you arent holding the nuts and you opponents have big odds to call, why push. What if you are 3 bet by a bigger flush on the turn or he pops you on the river-now you are -4.
Posted Wed Feb 22, 2006 8:04 pm GMT by TxShadow
| Dat_Dude wrote: | So Dave, if this is so obvious, why don't you tell us what you think he had since it seems none of us are seeing it.
Am I the only one that gets a feeling like Dave actually is the hand in question? The blind and NOT the guy with Aces? |
I wouldn't put it past him. Dave is sneaky like that 
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