Posted Wed Feb 22, 2006 2:49 pm GMT by Jauron
This hand bothers me more than it probably needs to, but enough that I'm seeking some advise for future reference.
AQs in the CO, in a $200NL ring game, limped to me so I pop it to $15, button calls (boo) and we're 3 way to the flop. Flop comes Ah 8s 3s, very nice flop for me as I hold AQ of spades. I make it $30 button doubles my bet, fold to me, and now I've got a decision. Button I have pegged as player who respects me, the dealer mentioned I had the same seat as the table forms up and he's got it in his head I'm good for some reason. I give him aces up, want to give him A3 which means I've got 15 outs and I'm a slight favorite to that hand. I also think if I gives a lot of action here and show down this hand it might pay off later if the table thinks I'm a bit of a donk. He's got about $50 left, no points in calling I figure fold or move in... I decide to move it in and hope for the best. He calls and does show me A3, I miss and he takes down the pot.
A few minutes later a buddy of mine tells me I played it all wrong, I ask what he would have done and he said he would have just called the reraise. I asked what good that would have done since if I miss on the turn I know it will cost me $50 to see the river, to which he said then I can fold there.
That didn't seem right to me, I'm not putting $30 in the pot out of position for one card when I know I'm behind, seems to me I either put it all in or fold, and I'm not sure which of those two is right given my read was correct. If I take out the whole, looks how crazy I am factor is this an automatic fold or was I still ok to move it in for $50 more?
Thoughts?
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Posted Wed Feb 22, 2006 3:28 pm GMT by tame_deuces
Move in.
Folding TPGK w/flushdraw on the turn for 50$ into a 150 or so pot is nonsense, so I'd say your friend is dead wrong.
Besides you are a slight favourite on the flop if he has two pair here, why not get the 50$ into the pot then?
Posted Wed Feb 22, 2006 4:55 pm GMT by Soup_dog
I would push too. I always seem to lose these kind of hands, but you definately have the right odds. You actually have a little bit more than 15 outs if you count runner runner pairs on the turn & river.
Posted Wed Feb 22, 2006 6:05 pm GMT by Skribbles
What more could you ask for??? You have almost the perfect flop... get those chips in the middle fast.
Posted Wed Feb 22, 2006 9:21 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
With all respect to your buddy, he's wrong. You HAVE to push that flop, because it's imperative that you see the turn and the river with a powerful hand like yours. Because he only had $50 left, you were getting priced in nicely to make the move you did. You got your chips in as the favorite, you lost. Welcome to Poker baby. 
Posted Thu Feb 23, 2006 1:44 pm GMT by Sid Lambert
first of all, good read on the guy
wut were the blinds?....just trying to figure out the pot size throughout this hand...If I'm looking at this right, when he raised you, there was at least 105 in the pot (prolly a little bigger?), and you're facing a $30 bet, with the option of making it 80 and putting him all in....
lets say you just called....the pot is now 165....turn comes a wretched 2 (not spade)....and he goes all in...you've still got 15 outs (9 spades, 3 queens, 3 eights)....you would still have to call at this point by far, cuz you have about a 1 in 3 chance of winning and calling 50 and possibly winning 265 is an excellent gamble....so when yer friend said, wait for the turn and maybe fold, he was wrong....assuming of course that your read was correct
i think you played it right...keep on making good pot odds, and in the long run you should come out ahead....just not this time
btw, that wink smilie just looks drunk 
Posted Thu Feb 23, 2006 2:10 pm GMT by BeerWench13
Excellent read and good push. I can't see a flaw in your play on that hand.
Posted Thu Feb 23, 2006 3:43 pm GMT by golddog
Plus you give him the opportunity to misplay his hand instead and fold the A3.
Posted Sun Mar 05, 2006 11:33 am GMT by howzit
i remember the first time i had your same exact hand OOP.
however, i c/r'ed the guy and he moved me all-in. i went into hte tank, decided i wanted to gamble and then called.
ran it 3 times and i won all 3. sweet.
but generally, if somebody will put out over half their stack on a good looking board like that, they are not folding. so if you have him on aces up only, you're still in great shape.
pot after your call is $165 and if you move him in, the pot will be $210:50. you'll lay him 4:1 to call and anybody with anything will call. this might be one of those cases where you'll have the right pot odds to call him down. BUT, when the stacks are that short, i just get it in.
but you sure he wasn't sitting on a set?
Posted Sun Mar 05, 2006 11:36 am GMT by howzit
equity-wise you are:
54:46 fav. against A3
46:54 dog to A4
51:49 fav. to bottom two.
and i a nice 30:70 dog to a set.
Posted Sun Mar 05, 2006 3:19 pm GMT by Skribbles
| howzit wrote: | equity-wise you are:
54:46 fav. against A3
46:54 dog to A4
51:49 fav. to bottom two.
and i a nice 30:70 dog to a set. |
How would he be a dog to A4? He would have A4 dominated to 2 outs.
Posted Sun Mar 05, 2006 3:40 pm GMT by Tadzio
I wouldn't fold here, and I'd definitely consider a push.
If you legitimately think he as A3, you might consider calling and making a more informed decision on the river. Unless you don't like thinking, pushing on the flop will just put you into a race vs A3. And despite # of outs giving you a slight advatage, I'd take the made hand vs the draw most days.
It is a tough decision though. If you call the flop and miss the turn, you have a choice to make (though if something higher than a 3 shows, you have some fold equity). If you call the flop and hit the turn, you have to decide how much A3 is willing to pay to keep you honest. And if you push the flop, you commit to a race vs 2 pair and risk losing anyone that's bluffing into you.
A push here is by no means a horrible play, but I'm not sure I'd like to commit to this hand. Please note that my opinion is colored by the fact that I've lost a lot of TPdraws in recent history, so I play them carefully when I get them.
Posted Sun Mar 05, 2006 4:07 pm GMT by howzit
| Skribbles wrote: | | howzit wrote: | equity-wise you are:
54:46 fav. against A3
46:54 dog to A4
51:49 fav. to bottom two.
and i a nice 30:70 dog to a set. |
How would he be a dog to A4? He would have A4 dominated to 2 outs. |
mistake. thought board read A43.
Posted Mon Mar 06, 2006 4:26 am GMT by tame_deuces
| Tadzio wrote: | | And despite # of outs giving you a slight advatage, I'd take the made hand vs the draw most days. |
Since Snoogins hasn't written anything yet I will. Stop calling stuff drawing hands and belittling them. Here is why the 'drawing' hand is 10 times better than the top/bottom two in this particular hand:
TP with flushdraw is much better than two pair with top/bottom in this hand because:
1.) We have a stronger hand than top/bottom two.
2.) We have much more win% versus top two.
3.) We have much more win% versus a set.
4.) We have so much more win% versus a flushdraw it isn't even funny.
So basically your hand just..wins...alot more, and is preferable to have if we take into account how the opponent has played thus far.
Posted Mon Mar 06, 2006 8:37 am GMT by Tadzio
It's not "much better" TPflushdraw with a good kicker is 53% to win. 10x better? Don't be a jerk. That's a race.
Why do I prefer the made top/bottom pair to the draw? Because, despite the fact that the TPflushdraw is a slight favorite on the flop, he's still behind in the hand. It doesn't matter that he has a great chance of improving. If TPflushdraw misses on the turn, you're "favorite to win" of 53% turns into a significant underdog with 38% chance to win. Thats a good hand to chase with, but it's no longer a point where you want to commit your stack unless the pot is huge.
So when should you push with TPflushdraw on the flop? In my opinion, most of these conditions have to be met:
1) You have a strong feeling your opponent has 2-pair or less (if he has trips you have a 30% chance of sucking out on the flop, and only 18% if you miss the turn).
2) Calling a flop bet commits you to the pot. This is a push or fold situation, and if condition #1 is met, pushing is a good idea.
3) This isn't a tournament, or if it is a tournament:
...a) there's rebuys, or
...b) you're already in the money, or
...c) you're small-stacked and desperate.
4) You think your opponent might fold.
| Quote: | | 1.) We have a stronger hand than top/bottom two. |
Marginally stronger.
| Quote: | | 2.) We have much more win% versus top two. |
Compared to what? Compared to Top-pair? Compaired to a normal flush draw? TP+draw = 45% to win on the flop vs top two pair, 27% if the turn misses.
| Quote: | | 3.) We have much more win% versus a set. |
Again, compared to what? In this situation, TP+Flushdraw is only 2% more likely to beat a set than FD.
Your example of a TP+draw vs a Draw is the only one I concur with the "much stronger" analysis.
Posted Mon Mar 06, 2006 9:10 am GMT by tame_deuces
I think my post explicitly stated what hand I compared too since I wrote this:
| Quote: |
TP with flushdraw is much better than two pair with top/bottom in this hand because:
|
But ok, I can write it out plain loud:
Jauron's hand is better than A3 versus top two on this board.
Jauron's hand is better than A3 versus a set on this board.
Jauron's hand is better than A3 versus a flushdraw on this board.
Jauron's hand is a favourite versus A3 on this board.
Neither did I anywhere in my post intend to be a 'jerk', I wrote my complete, honest opinion and I think I explained quite thoroughly why I though it was good.
The simple fact of the matter is that you won't find many hands where TP2K with a nutflush draw is significantly worse shape than top/bottom two pair, whereas you will find a big number of plausible hands your opponent can hold where the opposite holds true on this board.
I honestly don't even see how this is even a debate. Unless you got X-ray and can see the other guy's holecards TP2K w/nutflush draw is better than A3 here.
Posted Mon Mar 06, 2006 9:50 am GMT by Tadzio
What I'm saying, Tame, is that TP2K+nutflushdraw is dangerous. Let's put Jauron's opponent on a range of hands instead of a specific one, and then put A3 up against the same range.
On this board Ad8s3s:
AsQs vs AKo = 45:53
AsQs vs A8o = 44:55
AsQs vs A3o = 53:45
AsQs vs 83o = 51:49
AsQs vs XsXs = 95:05
AsQs vs AQo = 36:00
AsQs vs 88o = 29:70
A3o vs AKo = 67:31
A3o vs A8o = 08:88
A3o vs 83o = 91:08
A3o vs XsXs = 67:32
A3o vs AQo = 71:26
A3o vs AsKs = 45:53
A3o vs AsQs = 45:53
A3o vs 88o = 09:91
As you can see, on this range of hands with Jauron's hand unless you know that your opponent is playing a lower flushdraw, AQo or a set, you're basically flipping a coin do determine the winner.
With A3o, you're flipping a coin much less often. You know you can bank on beating certain hands and you know certain other hands will beat you. There are a few coin flips in there, but most of the time, if you're good at putting your opponent on a hand, you can make good decisions.
With TPGK+nutflushdraw you're making a mistake half the time when you push against something that can play back at you. With A3o you're only making a mistake when you can't predict with some confidence what type of hand your opponent has. This is why I prefer T/Bpair to TPGK+nutflushdraw. There's more certainty.
But hell, some people prefer a wide range of coinflips to choose from. Lady luck is kinder to some... others might prefer to use skill though.
Posted Mon Mar 06, 2006 11:40 am GMT by tame_deuces
Here is a pokerstove analysis of your handranges. I removed 83 and added 33 and A3. I also removed the backdoor ace flush draw from the A3 range. For this hand range I also added AT,AJ,AQ and AK.
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
46.9214 % 41.57% 05.35% { 88, 33, ATs+, A8s, A3s, ATo+, A8o, A3o }
53.0786 % 47.73% 05.35% { Ad3d }
AsQs:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
37.4558 % 32.73% 04.72% { 88, 33, ATs+, A8s, A3s, ATo+, A8o, A3o }
62.5442 % 57.82% 04.72% { AsQs }
Now, if we remove AK,AQ, AJ,AT as per Jauron's read:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
79.3290 % 64.68% 14.65% {88,33,A8s,A3s,A8o,A3o}
20.6710 % 06.02% 14.65% { Ad3d }
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
57.1212 % 56.75% 00.37% {88,33,A8s,A3s,A8o,A3o}
42.8788 % 42.51% 00.37% {AsQs}
As we can see, for obvious reasons AsQs is a significantly stronger hand when behind.
Now we can assume a % probability for each scenario as we wish and proceed from there. As is obvious the stronger the chance of us being behind, the better AsQs becomes compared to A3. The more we widen the hand ranges of our opponent, the stronger A3 becomes, it will still however never pass AsQs in strength.
The reason for this is pretty obvious: What hands are A3 beating on this board that AQ is not beating?
TPBP is a very,very overrated hand and is far, far weaker than alot of people think it is, this is especially true when the BP is very low.
And it has nothing to do with 'skill', 'coinflips' or 'luck', that is for sure. If you can fold TPBP you should be able to fold TP with a flushdraw.
Posted Mon Mar 06, 2006 1:33 pm GMT by Tadzio
I agree 100% with what you said in the above post, Tame. If you remove the possibility that the villian is holding any hand that you're ahead against, a nutdraw will always be preferrable to a made hand. If you HAVE to be behind, 9+ outs to the nuts is much better than 2-4 outs. 
If you're gonna justify eliminating hands to artificially weaken 2-pair "based on Jauron's read", why are you using a larger range than A3s and A3o?... his read was damned specific.
Nevermind... my read is that you're just arguing to argue at this point... cause you don't wanna admit that T/B pair can find better spots than TP2K+nutflushdraw.
Enjoy the rest of your day.
Posted Mon Mar 06, 2006 1:57 pm GMT by tame_deuces
Sure I can admit to that.
If button has AK, 83 or AQ then A3 is better.
Posted Mon Mar 06, 2006 4:05 pm GMT by Tadzio
| tame_deuces wrote: | Sure I can admit to that.
If button has any hand other than AA, 88, 33, A8, or XsXs, then A3 is better. |
Fixed your typo. :D
Posted Mon Mar 06, 2006 4:32 pm GMT by tame_deuces
That's the kinky catch. :D
If button has say...AJ
Then you are better off with AsQs than A3.
Because the remaining three 8s will also be outs for him, and since the 3 kicker is so low it is also likely that the turn card (if it is 4 or higher and a non-ace) will also be an out for him going to the river, because he'll fill up for better two pair w a higher kicker if that turn card, an 8 or a jack hits the river.
Whereas versus AsQs he has to hit the jack. And even if he hits the jack...we got spades and Qs as outs.
We're actually talking a 20% difference in winrate, so it is pretty signifcant.
(Well ofcourse A3 will be a bigger favourite versus a hand like say K8 or Q3. But looking at the action a hand like that seems unlikely, so I haven't considered them.)
I will also admit that I would _rather_ be the button with A3 than CO with AsQs. Because needless to say..CO doesn't always have AsQs here, and button is ofcourse a big favourite versus the typical holdings of a preflop raiser, whereas as far as the action have gone - CO knows he is at best a slight favourite - I also reckon this is the point you were trying to make all along.
Comparing the hands like I have done directly actually have very little value except on a purely theoretical level.
I'm sorry if I come off as argumentative or unpolite, I can promise you that is not my intention at all. I also know we crossed blades in a previous thread, and I have nothing against you or your posts. I enjoy dabbling in some hand arguments, and this particular hand has made me run some scenarios and has actually learned me alot about equity.
So my apologies if I come off as direct, it is not my intention to flame or annoy.
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