Posted Thu Feb 23, 2006 10:28 pm GMT by KingOHearts
This wont be any striking news to anyone here, but it is a nice illustration of variance. For the whole month of January I was invincible. My BR went up every night. Dangerous indeed.
Beginning about 3 weeks ago it turned on a dime. Suddenly I couldnt win with anything. I could grind out a thousand hands in a session and lose a buyin or break even. I got beat every way you can get beat, and gave back 1/2 of my January increase in the process.
Tonight I sit down and quadruple up in the space of 3 hands. It starts with me losing about 1/2 a buy-in on my very first hand when I raise with AQo in EP and get 3 callers. Flop comes Qxx with 2 clubs. I bet potsize and get 1 call and 2 folds. Turn comes 9 clubs and I bet pot size again and get a very stiff reraise. I think I smell bullshit but I lay it down because someone wise here said something I like, like "in a ring game dont make it your job to keep everyone else honest". Very next hand (after a quick rebuy) I see AA (for the first time in over 2100 hands...no lie! What are the odds?). I raise big and the same villian calls me. Flop comes JQx rainbow, I bet big, villian pushes so I gladly call. No improvement for either of us as he flips KJo  and I double up.
Meanwhile on my other table I see KK on my 2nd hand and double up against QQ. Next hand I have two red 9s, flop comes 77x wth 2 spades, turn comes a 9 spades and I end up winning another buyin when my boat takes out a nut spade flush.
I play a few more uneventful hands and log off for a while to grin. :D
Of course I cant leave well enough alone  , and the very second hand back I run into this very ugly beat:
#Game No : 3610913522
***** Hand History for Game 3610913522 *****
$25 NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, February 23, 21:51:41 ET 2006
Table Ausonia (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: suds4 ( $29.11 )
Seat 2: Shaun76 ( $40.55 )
Seat 3: dutc0015 ( $10 )
Seat 4: nicosuave777 ( $24.05 )
Seat 5: Boojah ( $11.15 )
Seat 7: Brad2468 ( $27.40 )
Seat 9: holdemonline ( $35.62 )
Seat 10: flader ( $38.76 )
Seat 8: ADK_Rick ( $24.75 )
Seat 6: tiezhao666 ( $5 )
nicosuave777 posts small blind $0.10.
Boojah posts big blind $0.25.
tiezhao666 posts big blind $0.25.
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to ADK_Rick 3 3
tiezhao666 checks.
Brad2468 folds.
ADK_Rick calls $0.25.
holdemonline raises $0.50.
flader folds.
suds4 calls $0.50.
Shaun76 folds.
dutc0015 folds.
nicosuave777 folds.
Boojah calls $0.25.
tiezhao666 calls $0.25.
ADK_Rick calls $0.25.
** Dealing Flop ** 3 4 9
Boojah is all-In $10.65
tiezhao666 folds.
ADK_Rick calls $10.65. Does anyone not call this??
holdemonline folds.
suds4 folds.
** Dealing Turn ** 5
** Dealing River ** 2
Boojah shows 9 A a straight, ace to five.
ADK_Rick shows 3 3 three of a kind, threes.
Boojah wins $22.75 from the main pot with a straight, ace to five.
I thought I might lose to 99 or 44, but not A9. Yuck. Variance. In fact, this was one of those hands where I had to blink a few times because I couldnt figure out *why* the chips were going in the other direction. 
I played a couple dozen more hands, won a nice pot with KK to even back up again and called it a night.
Why post this...I dunno, been so many "I been down so long stories" that I just want to remind everyone how quick things can turn. You can grind out thousands of break even hands and then quadruple up in 3 minutes. For someone like me who is still relatively inexperienced, it is the grinding of the thousands of break even hands where all the learning takes place, and thats important to remember too.
Did you know that participating in a poker forum can help you improve your own game? Be it by sharing experiences or simply asking for help, participation in a forum helps you focus and keep 'on topic' which will help you improve your game. You can learn from other players feedback and from their experiences. Why the THP poker forums? We offer one of the best managed texas holdem poker forums available, and the community within is far more friendly than those typicaly found on other sites. We've made a 'lurkers edition' of the poker forum available here on Holdem Poker Online, but we encourage all visitors to register and join in on the conversations on TexasHoldem-Poker.com
Posted Thu Feb 23, 2006 10:35 pm GMT by tame_deuces
Good post. 
It's when you reach this level of thinking that you rise a big step above more casual players that expect some sort of reward for each session.
Posted Thu Feb 23, 2006 10:51 pm GMT by zinn0
Very nice post King...
Tame: What about the players who expect to lose every session?
Posted Thu Feb 23, 2006 10:57 pm GMT by tame_deuces
| zinn0 wrote: | Very nice post King...
Tame: What about the players who expect to lose every session? |
I can't speak for the others but I just whine alot and tell myself I have bad luck. 
Posted Fri Feb 24, 2006 10:39 am GMT by UrAteUp
That last hand is an idiots dream come true. Not saying your the idiot Hearts, but that other guy sure was. If that turn and river hadn't come out the way it did you would have been walking out with a nice pot. Tough luck but you put your chips in with the better hand, just a shame it didn't stay the best hand.
Posted Fri Feb 24, 2006 10:59 am GMT by Soup_dog
Kind of ironic that you posted this. I logged on with the intention of making a post called
"Variance is a b****!"
Three weeks ago I won $140 in the THP freeroll. For the next three weeks I couldn't lose and parlayed it into $1800. :D
I kept telling myself to watch for a downturn... and boy did I get hit. Last weekend I had time to spend playing and I lost everything. Aces getting cracked, everytime I had Kings or queens someone else would have aces. It was ugly. By the end of the weekend I was down to $13. Yes, $13. 
So far this week I have turned that $13 back into $90 and am working my way back up.
On the upside I do think I am playing better overall. I have seen some holes and am trying to plug them. Hopefully I can keep it going.
Posted Fri Feb 24, 2006 11:04 am GMT by kingetje
from $1800 down to $13?? i dont think i could live through that... my biggest swing has been from $90 down to $23 in a day... i thought that was horrible already but this is some next level shit
Posted Fri Feb 24, 2006 11:11 am GMT by Soup_dog
| kingetje wrote: | | from $1800 down to $13?? i dont think i could live through that... my biggest swing has been from $90 down to $23 in a day... i thought that was horrible already but this is some next level shit |
Yes, it was ugly. I should have turned the computer off and walked away. I felt like I was still making the right plays, I was just running into brick walls. I don't really feel like I was tilting but I'm sure I probably was.
It was funny at one point where I said, ok if I can't win I will go to razz and try to lose. Naturally I started getting hands that would have been beautiful in a holdem game. LOL
One key hand I remember was in Omaha where I had a king over eights full house and I buried an ace as well. I'm all-in for $160 and the other guy flips over to show pocket aces to give him two pair. Naturally the only other ace in the deck comes on the river to give him the higher full house. I was a little *upset* after that one. I actually did take a break at that point.
Posted Fri Feb 24, 2006 11:28 am GMT by kingetje
damnnn it hurts to read that
Posted Fri Feb 24, 2006 12:58 pm GMT by UrAteUp
Soup if you lose that badly dude then you need to drop down in your levels of play. Variance can hit but should never hit that hard (well unless your playing at TR1988 stakes).
The worst I have delt with in variance was a week long trip where I was up $180 and went down to $120 and that was playing micro-limits ($3 and less SNGs and $0.02/$0.04-$0.05-$0.10 ring games). It was true variance as well. I studied ever hand history I had to make sure I had no holes in my play that would cost me like that. I also took a break and re-read several books on poker. To tell you how bad it was I couldn't win an SNG or ring game hand to save my life. 3 times in ring games I had AA cracked with all my chips in the pot. Once they were cracked when someone pushed all-in with 33. He actually hit quads to beat me and really rub it in. Several times in SNG's I had people hit one outers to put me out. It was depressing to say the least.
Currently working my way back up after cashing out a tidy profit of $150. I left about $12 and microing my way back up. Up to about $40 right now, but the important thing is I am not seeing major down swings and I am having a great time playing poker.
Posted Fri Feb 24, 2006 1:07 pm GMT by Soup_dog
| UrAteUp wrote: | Soup if you lose that badly dude then you need to drop down in your levels of play. Variance can hit but should never hit that hard (well unless your playing at TR1988 stakes).
|
Well I never changed stakes on the move up or down. What I should have done is once I started sliding back I should have taken a break and then come back on at lower stakes to protect my bankroll. It's a discipline problem for me.
Posted Fri Feb 24, 2006 1:17 pm GMT by supafrey
variance is a myth. discuss.
Posted Fri Feb 24, 2006 1:20 pm GMT by kingetje
can anyone describe through an example or something what exactly variance is? im dutch so that word is non existant in my language and ive read alot about it on here so im wondering what it is.
is it like the probability of a certain probability NOT happening or something?
oh and please leave the mathematical blabber to a minimum 8)
Posted Fri Feb 24, 2006 1:22 pm GMT by supafrey
variance is the idea that even when you're a 80% favourite, you're going to lose 20% of the time. And if you KEEP losing when you're a big favourite, sometimes it really adds up putting people in the hole. When you're playing well but lose anyways, that's variance.
Posted Fri Feb 24, 2006 1:23 pm GMT by kingetje
I see.. thank you very much
Posted Fri Feb 24, 2006 1:50 pm GMT by Gunslinger
To add to what supa said, if you make the perfect play every time, you WILL earn money in the long run. However, there will still be times when you're a 10-1 favorite over some donk who puts all his money in on a gutshot and he gets his card. The amount you lose depends on the limits you are playing, which is why you have to play limits in which your bankroll can survive the hits that variance gives you.
Posted Fri Feb 24, 2006 2:24 pm GMT by supafrey
variance is a myth.
Posted Fri Feb 24, 2006 3:29 pm GMT by flafishy
Lemme try this:
Variance is the movement away from the norm, or the expected result. If you flip a coin 1,000 times and bet every time that it will land heads, then you would be expected to break even. But if the actual result is that it landed heads 400 times and tails 600 times, then you have a negative variance of 10%. The next time you do this exercise, it lands heads 700 times and tails 300 times, then you have a positive variance of 20% for that session. Overall, your variance is 15% for the two sessions.
Now let's say you do this exercise 1,000 times and at the end of that 1,000th session, you've flipped the coin 1 million times. And it's landed heads 500 times and tails 500 times. You've gotten exactly the result you would have expected in those 1 million coin flips, and you've broken exactly even. But you were on a winning streak for a long time, when it landed heads more than it landed tails, and then went on a long losing streak when it landed tails more than it landed heads.
It's those streaks that are your variance, which can be positive or negative but theoretically will all even out over time. How that applies to your bankroll is that you'll want to protect it by not overexposing it to negative variance. As an exteme example, if you're betting $1 on each coin flip and expect to flip the coin 1 million times, you should come to the table with $500,001 so you won't go broke if all 500,000 of those expected tails land at the very beginning.
Posted Tue Feb 28, 2006 2:55 pm GMT by BeerWench13
I think what most consider "variance" is just the turn of the cards, your different mood swings, how much you've had to drink or haven't had, your disrespect for a donk who happens to have the nuts this hand, your total respect for a tight player who bluffs you off of a massive pot, your tits, , your bad beats, your suckouts, your lack of suckouts, your "odds" call, etc.
There are so many factors to poker that make the game a constantly changing enigma. Sure you know how to play, but that doesn't stop you from making that call when you're pretty damn sure you're way ahead with your set of 7's only to see that your opponent flopped a set of 9's. It's part of the game. Maybe your reads are just off or you're distracted because your boss chewed your ass this morning for something you didn't do or your husband/wife is in a bad mood and it melds into your mood. The hardest part is recognizing when these factors are going in a negative way and protecting your bankroll accordingly.
Sometimes, you just have those days when you can't seem to win a hand and other days where you flop the nuts every hand and can't lose. That's part of the game. I guess you can call it variance. I guess "variance" is the best way to put all of these factors into one word.
Posted Tue Feb 28, 2006 3:11 pm GMT by Gunslinger
| BeerWench13 wrote: | | your tits... |
I like your idea of variance :D
Posted Tue Feb 28, 2006 3:13 pm GMT by Soup_dog
| Gunslinger wrote: | | BeerWench13 wrote: | | your tits... |
I like your idea of variance :D |
considering her mind is in the gutter already, I have to question what she meant with the rest of the sentence about suckouts or the lack thereof as well as the beating.
Interesting...
Posted Tue Feb 28, 2006 3:23 pm GMT by BeerWench13
I meant TILTS. Dammit of all words for me to mistype. 
| Quote: | | considering her mind is in the gutter already, I have to question what she meant with the rest of the sentence about suckouts or the lack thereof as well as the beating. |
I'll keep this PG and refrain from further comment.
|
|
