Posted Sat Mar 11, 2006 7:09 pm GMT by Ryan231
This is the second hand of the tournament...
These are the types of the hands where I have no clue what to do.. I'm drawing at almost the nuts.. (Q10) but I'm not sure what I should be doing??
Seat 1: pokerpuss19 ($1,500 in chips)
Seat 2: Fuegomanx ($1,500 in chips)
Seat 3: TheMisciBoys ($1,500 in chips)
Seat 4: coco beanner ($1,490 in chips)
Seat 5: will989878 ($1,480 in chips)
Seat 6: ryan231 8H7D ($1,480 in chips)
Seat 7: buzz24 7 ($1,480 in chips)
Seat 8: snowee ($1,480 in chips)
Seat 9: shirly1 ($1,305 in chips)
Seat 10: mklopi ($1,785 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
will989878 posts blind ($10), ryan231 posts blind ($20).
PRE-FLOP
buzz24 7 folds, snowee folds, shirly1 folds, mklopi bets $50, pokerpuss19 folds, Fuegomanx calls $50, TheMisciBoys calls $50, coco beanner folds, will989878 folds, ryan231 calls $30.
FLOP board cards KD9S6H
ryan231 checks, mklopi checks, Fuegomanx bets $150, TheMisciBoys folds, ryan231 calls $150, mklopi bets $1,735 and is all-in, Fuegomanx calls $1,300 and is all-in, ryan231 folds.
TURN board cards KD9S6H5C
RIVER board cards KD9S6H5CJH
SHOWDOWN
mklopi shows AS3S
Fuegomanx shows AHKS
mklopi wins $285, Fuegomanx wins $3,260.
SUMMARY
Dealer: coco beanner
Pot: $3,545
pokerpuss19, loses $0
Fuegomanx, bets $1,500, collects $3,260, net $1,760
TheMisciBoys, loses $50
coco beanner, loses $0
will989878, loses $10
ryan231, loses $200
buzz24 7, loses $0
snowee, loses $0
shirly1, loses $0
mklopi, bets $1,785, collects $285, net -$1,500
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Posted Sat Mar 11, 2006 7:26 pm GMT by Magra
Eh, I wouldnt call. You would have much better shots at putting your money in. Sure, at the beginning of tournies players donk it up, but you woudnt hit that most of the times. Just cause it hit this time, dont think you made the wrong play.
Posted Sat Mar 11, 2006 7:43 pm GMT by Icec0o1
Easy laydown, why even question it? Don't ever regret good actions.
Posted Sat Mar 11, 2006 8:12 pm GMT by Ryan231
I'm not great at the odds but it seems im getting roughly 1 to 2.5 on it where as my chance of hitting the straight is roughly 1:3, so my odds are a bit off but if I take this I'm able to take a very commanding chip lead early (this is a 2 table turbo, so the chips would be good). I'm just asking what the more experienced players do in this situation? Theres no flush out there so I'm not worried about being outdrawn and the Q10 has worse odds than me of making a hand. Basically I'm drawing at the nuts, can't really count in runner runner flush/boat..
Posted Sat Mar 11, 2006 8:42 pm GMT by Skribbles
Would you be posting this hand if you called and the straight hit? Doubt it.
Your fold was correct. Don't worry about what "could" have been.
Posted Sat Mar 11, 2006 9:03 pm GMT by Ryan231
I'm only asking because I really don't know what I should have done, If you guys say fold then I guess I'm happy. I only folded because I was unsure and when I'm not sure I usually just fold to be safe.
Posted Sat Mar 11, 2006 9:04 pm GMT by Hungry4Knowledge
Not only was the fold correct, a call would be a terrible play...
Posted Sat Mar 11, 2006 9:07 pm GMT by Ryan231
| Hungry4Knowledge wrote: | | Not only was the fold correct, a call would be a terrible play... |
Could you expand on this ? I'm not doubting you but I'd like to hear why its a bad call.. It seems to be me like its a fold, but not an easy one. The odds are very close.. 1:2.7 to 1:3
Posted Sat Mar 11, 2006 9:10 pm GMT by Magra
The odds of hitting a gutshot straightdraw are NOT 1-3 chance. The only card you could of caught was a J, so only 4 outs. If I remeber correctly, I think its like a 7-1 or even worse to catch a gutshot.
Posted Sat Mar 11, 2006 9:20 pm GMT by Ryan231
I have 8/7, board is K69 please elaborate how this is a gutshot? A 5 or 10 gives me the nut hand. (A QJ beats me if a 10 hits)
I can see how you thought I had Q10, I put it in () because I was just saying that if a person had Q10 they'd be drawing to a better straight, but its tough to put them on it because of the way they moved in.
Posted Sat Mar 11, 2006 9:24 pm GMT by Ryan231
double post
Posted Sat Mar 11, 2006 9:26 pm GMT by KingOHearts
Edit...your post is confusing...I though said you had QT
Posted Sat Mar 11, 2006 9:29 pm GMT by Ryan231
If you look at the hand history i had 8/7offsuit, I had to edit the last post because I screwed up. Basically I was saying that the only hand that could outdraw me on the straight would be Q10 (if the jack falls), but since its a gutshot im not really putting them on it if they move in like that.
Posted Sat Mar 11, 2006 9:40 pm GMT by Magra
Wow. What a donk move on my part. I read it as you having Q10. But even if you did, you didnt even have a straight. Please ignore my stupidself.
Posted Sat Mar 11, 2006 10:05 pm GMT by tame_deuces
Will putting your chips in give you a better chance to cash?
That's pretty much the basic question you have to ask yourself in a tourney.
If it helps you decide was correct in this hand...I don't know...I'm drunk and full of cliches, and some girl has been all over me all night so my mind is all messed up.
I'll leave you guys too it.
Posted Sat Mar 11, 2006 10:40 pm GMT by Hungry4Knowledge
| Ryan231 wrote: | | Hungry4Knowledge wrote: | | Not only was the fold correct, a call would be a terrible play... |
Could you expand on this ? I'm not doubting you but I'd like to hear why its a bad call.. It seems to be me like its a fold, but not an easy one. The odds are very close.. 1:2.7 to 1:3 |
I thought you had 10-Q....
Posted Sat Mar 11, 2006 10:48 pm GMT by Ryan231
Alright.. well we all now know I had 8/7 giving me an open ended straight draw, so what do you guys say now?
Posted Sun Mar 12, 2006 6:01 am GMT by tame_deuces
If I wanted to go for it I'd probably check/raise all-in against the flop bettor.
If we think we're getting some fold equity that will probably make it an ok play.
If you _want_ your chips in on a draw, bet it, usually avoid calling it. With betting you get two ways to win. On most draws you need some fold equity in your opponent to make it profitable though.
As was pointed out in another thread just recently, you usually get less fold equiy with such moves in a SNG/small tournament setting than in a cashgame.
Posted Sun Mar 12, 2006 10:55 pm GMT by xhi
I think the most important thing to remember here is that in online poker if you had chosen to call, the number of mouse clicks and the timing would have changed sufficiently so that the random number seed would have changed and the 5 of clubs in all probability would not have come up.
So rest well in the knowledge that if you had called you would not have made it and would have been out of the tournament. Thankfully, you made the correct decision.
Posted Mon Mar 13, 2006 4:49 pm GMT by Moon_Child
EASY FOLD AND WE ALL KNOW WHY!!
Posted Mon Mar 20, 2006 6:43 am GMT by monkmask
It's a relatively simple math.
At this point you had $1,280 chips to put in, and the pot made for you was $3,070. It's about 2.4 : 1 pot odds for you.
Disregarding minor adjustment factors like winning it with a runner runner and focusing on the straight possibility, you had 8 outs. (4 5s and 4 10s) The possibility of you not hitting the straight until the river was;
39/47 * 38/46 = 68.55%
so your draw had a 31.45% chance to make it.
To make a call a profitable play, you need to have at least 29.5% chance or higher, so this is a close but correct call from the pot odds standpoint.
However, you also need to consider the followings;
- There was a chance that someone had QJ (not a big possibility but..) which would have beat you with a 10 even though you made the straight
- Much more likely, with the all-in bet and a call, someone might have made a set which could outdraw you even if you made your straight
- Last but not the least, if you called, with a 68.55% probability you would be knocked out of the tourney after only two hands. No return. On the other 31.45% of the calls, your chips will be increased to $4,350 which is nice but does not guarantee any money yet. If you fold, you would still have a healthy $1,280 stack with you.
Your choice.
Posted Mon Mar 20, 2006 7:55 am GMT by Ryan231
Exactly.. Everyone makes it seem very cut and dry but to me it seems very tough to decide here. I folded because of the fact I felt I could get my chips in at a better time but the pot was laying me the right kinda odds it seems. I think this comes down to personal style, how well do you play with a dented stack vs a large stack, is it worth the risk vs payout.
Posted Mon Mar 20, 2006 6:09 pm GMT by snoogins47
I like a post where I can just scroll a bit and glance at the math without firing up notepad and windoze calculator
To be fair, it is fairly close... but when I first read this, I thought you had QT too, which is probably why everybody is saying this is an 'easy fold.'
There's a lot of best-case scenarios where you're getting the odds, but they're not extremely favorable.
There's a lot of worst-case scenarios, where you're taking the worst of it, but often not TOO bad.
I think folding probably gets the edge here, but you're right that it's tricky. Mostly I think it just comes down to how tight the two players throwing their chips in are... the problem is, if they're too tight, it's a fold... but if they're really loose, you've probably got a significant edge while sitting at the table... which many people would contend means your optimal play requires passing on small edges. Meh.
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