Probability of winning hands mess-up! in Texas Hold'em! |
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Posted Fri Mar 17, 2006 4:04 am GMT by Buflonob
Working out the probability of getting a 3-of-a-kind in 8 deals (3 for hand, then 5 in centre) then comparing it with the probability of getting a flush i was surprised to see how large the probability gap was and the losing hand 3-of-a-kind was the harder of the two to get! 
8.1e-10 to 6.3e-06!! so there is a factor of 10,000 there!!! 
can someone tell me if my calculations are right, or at least if I am right on the probabilities being unfairly matched? and if so why does this hand beat the other!! 
Regards
Buf.
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Posted Fri Mar 17, 2006 12:18 pm GMT by snoogins47
It's way too small a sample to be totally accurate, but in my most recent PT database, I'm getting 3oaK 3.78% of my total hands, and a flush 1.88%.
So, you might want to grab the pencil and slide-rule again 
Posted Fri Mar 17, 2006 12:24 pm GMT by MasterShake
Are you the dude from Beautiful Mind?
Posted Fri Mar 17, 2006 12:59 pm GMT by Skribbles
| Buflonob wrote: | | (3 for hand, then 5 in centre) |
8 card Texas Hold'em?
You should look at investing in an 8-deck shoe.
Posted Fri Mar 17, 2006 1:05 pm GMT by Sid Lambert
| Buflonob wrote: | Working out the probability of getting a 3-of-a-kind in 8 deals (3 for hand, then 5 in centre) then comparing it with the probability of getting a flush i was surprised to see how large the probability gap was and the losing hand 3-of-a-kind was the harder of the two to get!
8.1e-10 to 6.3e-06!! so there is a factor of 10,000 there!!!
can someone tell me if my calculations are right, or at least if I am right on the probabilities being unfairly matched? and if so why does this hand beat the other!!
Regards
Buf. |
Are you talking about Texas Holdem here?...are you looking for the chances of getting 3 of a kind given any random starting hand and board vs. a flush?
Posted Fri Mar 17, 2006 3:09 pm GMT by Pokerfarian
Hey Bob,
Your post is very hard to understand, but the answer is very easy.
Look in the column to the left. In the section "Poker Tools", there is a "Preflop Calculator" that should answer all your questions.
Play with it and see if you can get the info you were looking for.
Generally, people look at the odds of hitting 4 to the flush, holding a single suit versus the odds of making a set (holding a pocket pair), but I think that you were looking at the odds of holding unsuited and a non pair for your comparisons.
Good luck
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