Posted Sat Mar 18, 2006 7:46 am GMT by AHBrownell
Okay, so I figured I would let you guys know how I am progressing using the 5% rule. I was making around $100-$300 per session (8 tabling $.50/$1 NLHE for around 4-5 hours) prior to using this tactic - and by tactic I mean calling 5% of my stack with any pocket pair preflop.
My daily earnings for the past 2 days have decreased severely. I now make around $50 per session.
It seems like this tactic may not be as good as it sounds. Here is why:
A pocket pair will hit a set 1/9 of the time on the flop. Too make calling 5% of your stack +EV you would need to be making more than 9x that 5% on average when you hit. Unfortunately this does not seem to occur very often.
If a flop comes with 2 suits, you are pretty much forced to reraise your opponent to protect your hand. Any decent player is going to fold top pair to this type of reraise unless it is an overpair.
Occassionally you will hit an opponent who has AA, KK, or QQ with a T high board and you will get all their chips in the pot - these times you make about a buy-in; usually 100BB online.
The vast majority of the time you will pick up a pot of around 30BB (over half of which you contributed) when you reraise on a flop with draws. Some of the time you will call a hand like AK or AQ and you are out of position - in these cases you cannot afford to check a dangerous flop with draws and have to bet at it. In these situations you win much less than 15BB (what you generally get if in position) because your opponent missed the flop and will simply fold.
Additionally, some of the time you will lose a large pot to a player drawing to a flush/straight - or your opponent happens to flop set over set - or gets a weird full house with both of their whole cards.
Lets say that you make this play 100 times. About 11 times out of 100 you will hit a set. Lets assume:
3 of those times you are against an overpair/top pair which will go broke against you
2 of those times you are against two overcards in position who missed the flop (you will win around 15 BBs)
2 of those times you you are against two overcards out of position who missed the flop (you will win around 10 BBs)
2 of those times you will get a drawing hand, which will call you to the turn or river (without odds) and will miss their hand winning you around 25 BBs)
2 of those times you lose a large pot to a better hand or suckout (50 BBs on average)
It will cost you 5% of your stack each time you make this play - that is 5 BBs each time. This totals 500 BBs. You will win 3x100 BBs, 2x15 BBs, 2x10 BBs, 2x25 BBs, and will lose 2x50 BBs on average. This will net you 400 BBs - but will cost you 500 BBs. For a negative 100 BBs for each 100x you make this play!
Ugh.
I think that I will go back to playing these only when I can limp - unless I am in position. And even then, only calling raises when I have pps 8s or higher - its just not worth ever really dealing with set over set situations because you tend to lose ALL your chips...
Feedback - if you think I am crazy in my analysis pls offer a revised assessment. I'd enjoy reading it.
Thx.
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Posted Sat Mar 18, 2006 5:36 pm GMT by snoogins47
Hi.
Your results, good and bad, are a fluke. That doesn't necessarily mean your reasoning is wrong, but it seems to me that in general, you're down on this 'tactic' because your results are down after two days. No good.
It's just a general rule of thumb, based on the fact that pocket pairs, even when underdogs, often carry hefty implied odds. It's not right against all players in all situations... I think your sort of reasoning is on the right track, sorta... but it's pretty counterproductive too. Especially since a lot of the numbers are arbitrary. Even with your same assumptions, if we added a single other 'example' where we stacked somebody, it becomes break even. When the numbers themselves are arbitrary, and the result is this close, it's very sketchy to draw any conclusions from it.
Also, the times you can play profitably after the flop, when you DON'T flop a set, come up so often that their absence from this analysis is a gross oversight.
Posted Sat Mar 18, 2006 11:04 pm GMT by MJJ
Also, you will see the flop a lot of the time for less than 5% of your stack...
Posted Sat Mar 18, 2006 11:48 pm GMT by AHBrownell
Well I play thousands of hands daily - so the idea of variance is hard to really explain this.
MJJ I am talking only about situations where you do put in 5% - I am not saying pocket pairs are not good hands to play - I am just saying 5% of a player's stack is too large a price to pay. 
Posted Sun Mar 19, 2006 12:08 am GMT by tame_deuces
If you play thousands of hands daily, surely you must have seen quite long losing streaks at some point by now and thus know that results/swings over a few thousands hands mean nothing.
Posted Sun Mar 19, 2006 1:57 pm GMT by snoogins47
| AHBrownell wrote: | | Well I play thousands of hands daily - so the idea of variance is hard to really explain this. |
No, it's not.
Posted Sun Mar 19, 2006 4:49 pm GMT by AHBrownell
Hmmm, okay. I'll let you know if this changes - I am still suspicious of this play though...
Posted Sun Mar 19, 2006 6:56 pm GMT by supafrey
You're completely ignoring the fact that your PP can win even if it doesn't hit a set...
Posted Sun Mar 19, 2006 8:47 pm GMT by ScanX
seeing a flop with a pocketpair is the most "productive move" I know, and I'm saying this after having played a real lot of thousands of hands.
in addition to what snoo said in his last paragramh, you are also forgetting in your numbers that sometimes you will see a turn or a river without paying a nickel and u can catch some slowplaying fools.
Posted Tue Mar 21, 2006 2:48 pm GMT by MJJ
I think you also missed the possability of more than one person paying you off when you hit your set
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