Posted Mon Mar 27, 2006 9:11 am GMT by Dave B
I worked my $50 deposit for the tourney up to about $180 in a few sessions and SNGs. So I pull $100 out, and play 1/2NL 6 handed w/ the balance. I have my $80 up to $150 again and was about to quit. The plan was to pull another $100 out and play wild NL w/ the remaining $50. Before I could, this happened:
A  J  in small blind. 2 limped, another raised to $8, button called, I see the rest calling so I call too.
Flop K 7 6
I check to see what happens, the someone bets out $6 toward $40 pot, 2 call, initial raiser makes it $30.
What do you do here?
Oh, raise has me covered, the others have from $70-120
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Posted Mon Mar 27, 2006 11:18 am GMT by Dat_Dude
I think I fold this. You have to think that some of your hearts are consumed by the callers. I am putting the initial raiser on a set of Kings or maybe AA and he is trying to get people to pay for the draw to the flush. If he does have the Kings, not only do you have to catch your heart, but if you do catch your heart (say, on the turn), then you must avoid the board pairing as well.
I just think you are looking at probably 3-4 of your hearts in you opponents hands. I lay this one down.
Posted Mon Mar 27, 2006 12:27 pm GMT by greathuskie
while the chances of you winning are slim at best, the pot is going to be huge...
Posted Mon Mar 27, 2006 12:30 pm GMT by UrAteUp
Call me crazy here but I make this call. If you do hit that flush then your a sure win. I wouldn't put the raiser on KK. I think I would have to put him on a flush as well. My reasoning is that 3/4 pot raise seems like overkill. He doesn't want to be called. He could have the set or maybe even AK and hoping he drives everyone else off of this pot by over betting it's true worth and giving the impression that he has a nut hand. If he has a flush, he is betting to get rid of an over or better flush.
Posted Mon Mar 27, 2006 12:49 pm GMT by BeerWench13
Tough hand. That will be a huge pot, but I would think many of your outs are gone. I would have to fold here unless I was in a gambling mood.
My guess would be that you folded, the nut flush came on the turn and you'd have taken down a moster pot
............OR..............
You called, caught the nut flush on the turn and the board paired on the river to make a boat.
Just my guesses.
Posted Mon Mar 27, 2006 12:56 pm GMT by Dave B
Why is a bet of 3/4 pot big given that 5 players saw a flop?
Posted Mon Mar 27, 2006 1:36 pm GMT by Dat_Dude
| Dave B wrote: | | Why is a bet of 3/4 pot big given that 5 players saw a flop? |
Exactly...It isn't at all.
That is why it seems to me like either the initial raiser has the set of Kings and just wants to win the pot that is there now or make them pay to draw the last yeart.....OR...He might already have his flush. The only logical hand he could have with a made flush is QJ , although in ring games I dont know how often this hand gets raised preflop.
Posted Mon Mar 27, 2006 1:38 pm GMT by Soup_dog
Hmmm.... based on what I know (or think I know) about Dave's play. He is fairly tight preflop and very aggressive post flop if the odds are there.
If I am doing the math correctly he has 3-1 pot odds and mmmm... say 6 outs? Lets see that only ~12%, so the odds aren't there.
When I started writing this I thought he would call, but after working the odds I would guess he folded.
Posted Mon Mar 27, 2006 4:24 pm GMT by UrAteUp
| Dave B wrote: | | Why is a bet of 3/4 pot big given that 5 players saw a flop? |
I wasn't really meaning the pot was big. I was meaning the raise just seemed like over kill to me. Like he was not wanting you to call and wanting to take this pot down right here. Given the raise pre-flop I can see why some might put him on a set of Ks. I don't think he had a set.
Dat in 1/2 NL it is possble that someone might raise 6-8xBB with a mediocor hand like QJs. I see it online and I deff. seen it live a number of times.
I put villian on and he hit his flush and just trying to push off anyone who might have the nut flush.
So Dave do tell please. Did you call or push and what was the outcome?
Posted Mon Mar 27, 2006 5:53 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Ok, so before the raise on the flop, there's $58 in the pot. When someone raises to $30, the pot becomes $88. You're now getting almost 3-to-1 on a call here, so let's look at the odds (keep in mind that if someone else calls, the payout will be even bigger). Since if you get it all-in on the flop, you can see both the turn and river for the same price, we can count our outs for two cards. I think we have to assume the raiser has a small to medium flush here, so we have 7 outs, not 9, and maybe less if other players have a heart draw.
With 7 outs, the odds of making your hand by the river are 2.597 to 1.
With 6 outs, the odds are 3.149 to 1.
With 5 outs, the odds are 3.926 to 1.
With 4 outs, the odds are 5.061 to 1.
Compared to the 3 to 1 we're getting on our money, this isn't especially promising if there are some dead hearts, but if we can draw further callers, the case for a call here becomes more appealing. I think this is pretty much a straight pot-odds problem.
Posted Tue Mar 28, 2006 6:08 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Similar situation:
http://www.texasholdem-poker.com/forum/t16294/aa-with-flush-draw#128775
Posted Tue Mar 28, 2006 1:59 pm GMT by Dave B
Well, I moved all in. I figured I had 9 or maybe 12 outs. Where you guys get 4-7 from, who knows.
I honestly put him on AK (ok, so I had 9 outs) and w/ the king on the board, he couldnt be drawing to 2nd nuts unless he had KQ. I saw his bet as a block against a flush draw and I thought I would buy the pot here. The only hand I see him calling with is a set.
So, I move in for $140 or so, a $110 raise. What happened next? All others fold, action on him. What hands do you call with?
Posted Tue Mar 28, 2006 4:26 pm GMT by arras
| Dave B wrote: |
So, I move in for $140 or so, a $110 raise. What happened next? All others fold, action on him. What hands do you call with? |
KxQh?
Posted Tue Mar 28, 2006 4:36 pm GMT by Soup_dog
| arras wrote: | | Dave B wrote: |
So, I move in for $140 or so, a $110 raise. What happened next? All others fold, action on him. What hands do you call with? |
KxQh? |
Q x would be the only thing I could imagine calling with... but only if I wasn't paying close enough attention to what I am doing.
Posted Tue Mar 28, 2006 5:05 pm GMT by UrAteUp
Kx or AK...not sure but I can't wait to hear the results.
Posted Tue Mar 28, 2006 9:25 pm GMT by Jauron
Takes two pair or better, although KxQh can be stupid I suppose.
Even AK needs to seriously consider laying this down since you hold the Ace of hearts.
Posted Tue Mar 28, 2006 9:31 pm GMT by howzit
c/r all-in.
and fold this preflop.
Posted Tue Mar 28, 2006 9:32 pm GMT by howzit
or raise big preflop to pick up the dead money. (this works better live than online)
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