Playing Against Lots of Callers |
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Posted Mon Mar 27, 2006 1:11 pm GMT by lwestatbus
I've run into a situation regularly at a local live venue and a couple of times online and was wondering whether any others have come up with a method of adjusting their play or if anyone has thoughts on whether play should be adjusted at all. This is all in ring fixed low limit HE.
I've found that when there are consistently lots of callers, including lots who stay in to at least see the turn and who will often see the river that the number of suck outs winning against me goes up a lot. Further, this actually seems to make sense if we start from the premise that there are lots of callers.
My understanding of the game is that when you have a good made hand early on (let's say two pair or you flopped a set to a medium pocket pair) or certain strong draws that you use betting and raising to narrow the field and/or build the pot. Further, I firmly believe that if I am heads up against a single poor player who is willing call down a lot with weak hands I will win against him in the long run even if he sucks out on me from time to time. The problem is that with a table full of calling stations you have to beat them all. If one caller has a one in five chance of sucking out then five players have an almost certain opportunity for sucking out. The analogy of the shark among the fish breaks down if the fish are piranahs--the shark could easily take on one or two but not all of them. What I see is that these folks end up trading their money around among themselves but it is harder for me to win against the pack.
A secondary consideration is that if I do have a good hand pre-flop (say AA, KK, AK or so) then raising with a bunch of hopeful calling stations only serves to build the pot and not only not get rid of most of the donkeys but to also keep in the better players who now have better odds to call.
I have some thoughts on adjusting in this environment but am still ruminating on them. Anyone else have any ideas or experience with this?
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Posted Mon Mar 27, 2006 1:48 pm GMT by Soup_dog
Hmmm.... I'm no expert, but with a table of calling stations you should try and play more drawing hands for cheap in late or mid position. Suited connectors and maybe even high unsuited conenctors. If you don't hit on the flop bail.
As for your big hands raise bigger. Yes, it's tempting to keep the limpers in there to build a big pot, but that will doom you in the end. You really need to get rid of a bunch of those limpers. Even if it means pushing a big portion of your stack in there preflop.
Just my opinion.
Posted Mon Mar 27, 2006 2:05 pm GMT by lwestatbus
I agree with Soup's first suggestion. This is good theory for those hands, including middle or even low pocket pairs. It seems to me that any adjustment needs to include both an increase in value for some hands (such as Soup_dog suggests) but also a decrease in value on others.
Second bit of advice doesn't really apply as it is fixed limit.
Posted Mon Mar 27, 2006 2:08 pm GMT by Soup_dog
| lwestatbus wrote: | | Second bit of advice doesn't really apply as it is fixed limit. |
Oopsie! Missed that!
Posted Mon Mar 27, 2006 3:00 pm GMT by tame_deuces
Let's imagine being up against any two cards:
1. AA versus one person gives you an equity of 85% against his random hand.
2. AA versus 9 persons gives you about an equity of 35% versus all their random hands.
Now if everyone calls, scenario 2 is over time, wildly more profitable than scenario 1, because even if you'll lose that one far more often, the pots you do haul will be much, much bigger. The call in the first hand earns you 8.50$, the calls in the 2nd hand earns you 31.50$, now withdraw what we'll lose and hand 1 gives a 7$ profit and hand 2 gives a 25$ profit.
Not betting in either instance is then the 'ultimate losing play' and qualifies as the one that will lose you the most in the long run.
This example is ofcourse not usable, because people don't play like this over the long run, even calling stations have certain standards. But it illustrates a very important concept that is often forgotten:
You only need enough equity to make it profitable to bet, you don't need an enormous % chance to win the hand.
So the easiest way to beat calling stations is to grit your teeth together, keep betting and learn to not care about the bad beats (maybe the most important lesson). I wouldn't worry too much about betting the best hand not being profitable, in most instances it is and finding out when it is not versus a bunch of calling stations is probably not worth the effort, because calling stations could be in there with some _weird_ hands.
Posted Mon Mar 27, 2006 5:38 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Tame is absolutely right. You should be happy to play against calling stations because your equity is so high, that when you win a pot, it will often erase most of the time you are outdrawn. In environments like this I like a lot of suited connectors and suited aces that can make the nuts and collect large pots. PP's are also good because a set is a very strong hand is not outdrawn even at low stakes as much as people think.
Posted Tue Mar 28, 2006 8:45 am GMT by lwestatbus
We're getting some consistent advice here, and also from some experienced posters.
It seems to me that a big pair and two pair lose a lot of value with multiple callers. Anyone have any specifics or just advice on how much to discount them?
Noticed something in a table last night that I've seen before. Many times these calling stations won't raise their huge hands, sometimes not even on the river. Their nut straight made with 7-4 offsuit is just shown down for the win.
Posted Tue Mar 28, 2006 2:56 pm GMT by kainARGH
| Quote: | | hand 1 gives a 7$ profit and hand 2 gives a 25$ profit. |
A very difacult lesson to learn and understand. Even to this day I typically still don't like limit poker , but then again I'm never buying in large enough to stay for the long haul.
Posted Tue Mar 28, 2006 7:00 pm GMT by suitedaces84
| lwestatbus wrote: | | It seems to me that a big pair and two pair lose a lot of value with multiple callers. |
It depends on how you define value. A lot of players define value as the likelyhood of them winning the pot (a hand with a lot of value wins a lot). To them all hands lose value in multiway pots; after all 8 9 is more likely to win heads up than it will in a 6 way pot. Against tighter players all their hands are more valueable. J7o in the SB vs. a tight BB when it's folded to them would be much more valueable than AA on the button vs. 5 limpers because it's more likely to win.
But I play to win chips/bets/money, not pots. I measure value in chips/bets/money--not the likelyhood of me winning. So value of a hand is based on several factors. The value of a hand is the likelyhood of me winning times the amount I win on average less the amount I lose on average when I lose times the likelyhood of me losing. Let's write a gay little formula:
V = P*W-(1-P)*L
-P is the probablility of me winning; so 1-P is the probability of me losing.
-W is the amount I win when I win.
-L is the amount I lose when I lose.
what tame said
If you someone offered you a $1, a 1 in 3 shot at $4 or a 1 in 10 shot at $15 what would you take?
I guess there's only so many ways to say it, but every starting hand there is will be more profitable against a bunch of bad players than it will against a bunch of good players. This makes a lot of hands go from -EV to +EV when your opponents go from good to bad.
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