Posted Tue Mar 28, 2006 6:09 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Ok, this is very similar to a thread DaveB posted, but the situation is slightly different and I'd like to know what you think.
The game is $200 NL 6-handed on Full Tilt.
Player 1 is UTG
Player 2
Hero is 3rd position with $232
Player 4 is button
Player 5 is SB
Player 6 is BB
Player 1 raises to $6.
Player 2 calls $6.
Hero is dealt A  A  and re-raises to $16.
Player 4 calls $16.
Player 5 folds.
Player 6 folds.
Player 1 calls $10.
Player 2 calls $10.
Pre-flop, the pot is $64 total after rake.
Flop is J T 8
Player 1 bets $8.
Player 2 calls $8.
Hero raises to $24 (I wanted to know where I stood, and buy a free card is possible).
Player 4 re-raises to $149 and is all-in.
Player 1 re-raises to $151 ($2 more) and is all-in.
Player 2 folds.
Pot is now $396, with $127 for Hero to call.
The way I figure it is this:
1. I'm up against a flush and set, in which case I have 7 outs.
2. I'm up against 2 flushes, in which case I have 5 outs.
3. Player 4 is bluffing to steal and has maybe top pair.
4. I could still spike an Ace and pair the board, which is maybe worth one out.
Getting a bit over 3-to-1, would you guys consider calling this? Is it a no-brainer is one direction or another?
Discuss, results to follow...
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Posted Tue Mar 28, 2006 7:07 am GMT by snoogins47
It seems pretty close, but I think we probably have a call here. In most of the fairly grim scenarios, you're only a 4 to 1 dog to win the pot, sometimes slightly worse (against two flushes, against a flush + a set) but there are some not-unreasonable scenarios that put you significantly better than that... I think Player 1 typically has JJ, TT, QdQx, or KdKx, which isn't so bad... after his raising UTG, and you holding the Ad, there just aren't a whole ton of hands he could have that already make a made flush. Player 1's position is frightening for us, but even when he DOES have a flush, we're not dead in awful shape. Also of note: with how we can narrow player 1's range down, the board, and our Ad, Player 4's chances of holding a flush probably go down.
Multiway pots are a bitch in this game.
Posted Tue Mar 28, 2006 1:19 pm GMT by Ciso_B
I think this is a fold. Normally for AA this isnt too bad a flop when you hold the nut flush draw, but against both of them all in , you cant be in great shape here. Your AA at the moment is not good imo, that aside you are still drawing to a flush, you could take the gamble but I dont think it would be +ev in this situation.
Posted Tue Mar 28, 2006 2:12 pm GMT by kainARGH
May only be up against a 9 for one of them , and theres always the possibility player 4 does not have a diamond and went all in with tptk or simply tp.
Not knowing anything about either of the players , I would probably fold.
Posted Tue Mar 28, 2006 3:38 pm GMT by Phil14312
Just freakin call already you got Aces.
But seriously I call, you are getting over 5-1 no?
Posted Tue Mar 28, 2006 3:54 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
| Phil14312 wrote: | Just freakin call already you got Aces.
But seriously I call, you are getting over 5-1 no? |
Only a little better than 3-to-1 actually... 396-127.
It was a marginal call to make, but I figured it's such a big pot, so what the hell? If calling was a mistake, I doubt it was a very big one, like Snoogins mentioned. I called.
The turn came the 8  . If I was up against a set, I was down to just 2 outs (0 if one had made quads), but if I was up against a flush and a good flush draw, I just picked up two more outs on top.
The river came the 2 , and I wasn't sure if I should celebrate, but then the cards were turned up, and I knew I'd won the hand.
Player 1 showed 7 6 for a flopped flush (he played the hand unusually pre-flop).
Player 4 showed 9 9  for an open-ended straight flush draw. Given the action, I'm not sure why he wanted to make that all-in raise, because if anyone held a better flush, he was down to two outs at most. However, I guess it's good I didn't get the Q to make his SF.
After I collected the pot, each one of them decided to comment on how badly I'd played the hand and how I "overvalued" AA. Then they left and I decided to log off with their money. :D
Posted Tue Mar 28, 2006 3:55 pm GMT by BeerWench13
| Quote: | Just freakin call already you got Aces.
But seriously I call, you are getting over 5-1 no? |
Precisely my thoughts. You've got odds, the nut draw for the flush and even a back door boat draw. I'm 99.9% sure I'd call. After all, you know that neither of them has the nut flush already as you're holding the A. So what would prompt them to push? I would think weakness.
Of course, I don't have any information on your opponents to make a definite judgement here. The only hand that would warrant any hesitation is the straight flush. The odds of flopping that are around .01% I believe. Are either of these villains the type to call a raise and reraise with Q9s or 79s? That would be my only concern, but I'd have to go with the odds and call here.
Posted Tue Mar 28, 2006 4:06 pm GMT by kainARGH
yuck that he floped the flush VS your aces 
Figured one was a 9 8)
Nice pot though 
Posted Tue Mar 28, 2006 5:11 pm GMT by UrAteUp
| Quote: | | After I collected the pot, each one of them decided to comment on how badly I'd played the hand and how I "overvalued" AA. |
Do people not understand odds and probability? If they did they certainly wouldn't be talking shit about how bad you played AA or over valued it. It took all their money so how can it be bad playing when you won? If you look at it on the odds perspective there was nothing else to do but to call.
Posted Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:09 pm GMT by Phil14312
Tell me I'm wrong but if the pot is 396 + your 127 to call, won't your effective odds be 127:523 (which is still not 5:1, but 4:1) which is what the pot would be if you called? Am I making big mistakes calculating pot odds when I throw in the amount to be won that includes my call?
Posted Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:27 pm GMT by Jauron
I don't know if you were kidding or not anymore...
I'll just assume you were.
Posted Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:49 pm GMT by Phil14312
I was only kidding.
Posted Wed Mar 29, 2006 3:41 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Phil, in your calculation, you're counting the 127 twice. I'm trying to win the 398 in there, so my 127 is not money to be factored into the final pot.
Posted Thu Mar 30, 2006 1:25 am GMT by snoogins47
| Phil14312 wrote: | | Tell me I'm wrong but if the pot is 396 + your 127 to call, won't your effective odds be 127:523 (which is still not 5:1, but 4:1) which is what the pot would be if you called? Am I making big mistakes calculating pot odds when I throw in the amount to be won that includes my call? |
Yes, you very well could be :/
That said, if you're calculating percentages to win, you're on the right track. So you might not be too far off base. Depends on how you do the work in your head, I guess.
For instance, he's getting 396:127 here, which is around 3.1:1.
However, in order to find what percentage of the time we have to win to find our breakeven point, we divide 127 by the total, of 523, which means we have to win around 24.3% of the time or better.
So, if you're doing it that way, you're fine.
However, if you switch up the order a bit (NOTE EVERYBODY THIS IS WRONG AND INCORRECT AND NOT RIGHT)
If you take 523/127, say you're getting 4.1:1, then convert THAT into a percentage (or if you just use that figure as straight up odds) you're making a significant mistake. By that math, we only have to win 19.6% of the time, which can mean a big difference.
(OKAY THE WRONGNESS IS OVER HERE COMES THE SUMMARY)
Stupid semantics in math always lead to confusion 
3:1 underdog = 25% to win = wins 1 out of 4 times
Odds are a different beast than probability/percentage. In odds, the SUM of both sides is the 'total outcomes' figure, which also means in pot-odds the total amount of money involved. In probability the 'total outcomes' is the denominator alone (or, what would be the denominator, if it's expressed in "X in Y" or "X out of Y" format)
Posted Thu Mar 30, 2006 2:27 am GMT by nknowles
Well there are many things u have to take into consideration. Firstly is this table a loose, table, by the looks of it is, so ur going to see many people in the pot. Im not so sure u would want that kind of action with those A's, especially after u raise. Well nehoo back onto the situation, U reraised an UTG player, so clearly u must have a big pair, or AK at that, but i understand this is a cash game. I dont know how knowledeable these oppenents are of the game, but cleary i dont think they are after u get so many calls after u reraise an UTG player. I would have to put the UTG player on the KQ of diamonds. Hes couldnt make that play after u the pre flop raiser comes over the top of him on that flop. U would either have to have a high suited A urself, a big pair of Q-A bith either one a diamond. I think its an easy fold especially after u reraise and the other person comes over the top of u and the inital better, FROM EARLY POSITON i might add, reraises u like 4 dollars more. CLEARLY NOT A BLUFF. I dont even think u need mathematics here, honeslty, just think about it logically ur only drawing to 7 cards the most after u get 2 people all in after that flop. Sorry if this seems all over the place, its my first POST :D HOPE U CAN MAKE SENSE OF IT LOL!
Posted Thu Mar 30, 2006 9:11 am GMT by BeerWench13
| Quote: | | If you take 523/127, say you're getting 4.1:1, then convert THAT into a percentage (or if you just use that figure as straight up odds) you're making a significant mistake. By that math, we only have to win 19.6% of the time, which can mean a big difference. |
Wait, that's not right. 
I won't even attempt to explain how I calculate odds. I have always had a backward approach to math, so I start from one end and work my way there whereas most others start at the other end. I guess it doesn't make a difference as long as you get the correct answer in the end.
Welcome to the forum, nknowles. I hope you enjoy it here.
If I may make a suggestion.....paragraphs will make it much easier to decipher your posts.
Posted Thu Mar 30, 2006 9:33 am GMT by zinn0
| BeerWench13 wrote: | | .....paragraphs will make it much easier to decipher your posts. |
*sigh* I remember when I got the old, "paragraphs are our friend" speech when I joined here...
Posted Thu Mar 30, 2006 9:45 am GMT by BeerWench13
| Quote: | | *sigh* I remember when I got the old, "paragraphs are our friend" speech when I joined here... |
That wasn't me. I'm pretty sure it was Snoogs.
Posted Thu Mar 30, 2006 9:52 am GMT by zinn0
Actually, it was Silhouette...and it was a long time ago, not only in terms of months, but also in terms of my playing ability.
Posted Fri Mar 31, 2006 2:23 am GMT by snoogins47
| BeerWench13 wrote: | | Quote: | | *sigh* I remember when I got the old, "paragraphs are our friend" speech when I joined here... |
That wasn't me. I'm pretty sure it was Snoogs. |
Don't hate me because I'm beautiful.
Posted Fri Mar 31, 2006 10:03 am GMT by UrAteUp
| snoogins47 wrote: | | BeerWench13 wrote: | | Quote: | | *sigh* I remember when I got the old, "paragraphs are our friend" speech when I joined here... |
That wasn't me. I'm pretty sure it was Snoogs. |
Don't hate me because I'm beautiful. |
When did this happen??... . When did you become beautiful?... . I think someone is lied to you dude.
Posted Fri Mar 31, 2006 2:25 pm GMT by snoogins47
50 million Snoogins fans can't be wrong.
Posted Fri Mar 31, 2006 2:39 pm GMT by BeerWench13
*Snoogins fan* :D
Posted Fri Mar 31, 2006 3:27 pm GMT by UrAteUp
| snoogins47 wrote: | | 50 million Snoogins fans can't be wrong. |
I really didn't know there were that many blind or mentally challenged people in the word who knew you Snoogins...
| Quote: | BeerWench13 Posted: Fri Mar 31, 2006 5:39 pm Post subject:
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*Snoogins fan*
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Your a women...since when did your opinion start mattering?....
Posted Mon Apr 03, 2006 12:42 pm GMT by BeerWench13
And, being a woman, I'm going to state my opinion whether it matters or not. 
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