Posted Thu Mar 30, 2006 1:52 pm GMT by zinn0
This is a hand that I've been thinking about recently. 1/2 NL live.
Hero has $200ish somewhat loose table image
Villain has $50ish weak tight, from what I can gather
Hero is dealt A4  in BB
Villain is sitting directly to my left UTG.
Villain limps in, as does one other player. SB completes, and I check.
pot $8.
Flop A  8 2
SB checks, I throw a $5 chip in the pot. Villain calls, other limper as well as SB fold.
pot $18
Turn T 
I bet $12. Villain pushes for $30 more on top of my $12. Is this worth a call mathematically with 1 card to come?
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Posted Thu Mar 30, 2006 2:05 pm GMT by tame_deuces
If he is really weak tight, he should have top pair/crap kicker crushed when he pushes turn, so 2:1 no good w/ most likely only flush outs and maybe the three remaining fours if we are lucky.
Posted Thu Mar 30, 2006 2:12 pm GMT by Soup_dog
Hmmm.. now here is an interesting hand.
you can count the nine outs for the flush.
Good chance he has at least an ace so I "might" count one out for another ace. I might add another two outs on the chance that two pair will win the hand for you (if a 4 hits) I'm not counting both aces or all three 4's in an attempt to be more realistic. So I think it is safe to say 12 outs. That gives you about a 25% chance of winning the hand or 3:1.
Unfortunately he just put a pot sized bet out there so you are looking at 2:1.
(I'm still trying to learn this pot odds stuff so please correct me if I am wrong.)
so according to pot odds you should fold. BUT, what about implied odds? Unfortunately, there are none because he is all-in. I would love to call that one, but I think you need to let it go.
Posted Thu Mar 30, 2006 2:41 pm GMT by BeerWench13
I think he hit his second pair on the turn. I'd put him on AT. I'd have to fold because the odds don't support chasing the flush.
Posted Thu Mar 30, 2006 2:47 pm GMT by UrAteUp
| BeerWench13 wrote: | | I think he hit his second pair on the turn. I'd put him on AT. I'd have to fold because the odds don't support chasing the flush. |
I have to agree with the little lady here. Looks as though he paired his kicker or is on one excellent bluff attempt. Lay it down and wait to get him another hand.
Posted Thu Mar 30, 2006 2:54 pm GMT by Soup_dog
| UrAteUp wrote: | | BeerWench13 wrote: | | I think he hit his second pair on the turn. I'd put him on AT. I'd have to fold because the odds don't support chasing the flush. |
I have to agree with the little lady here. Looks as though he paired his kicker or is on one excellent bluff attempt. Lay it down and wait to get him another hand. |
Hey hey HEY! I said it before she did!
Dang it. Just because she is cuter...
Posted Thu Mar 30, 2006 5:33 pm GMT by Sid Lambert
its a close one, but i'd hafta agree w/ the consensus here and say that grudgingly you should fold....AT is a very strong possibility, if not, then at least he has you outkicked...and unfortunately those 12 outs dont make your pot odds quite good enuf w/ only one card to go...outside chance he has a set too...doesn't look good tho, but just barely
Posted Thu Mar 30, 2006 6:40 pm GMT by Tadzio
In a tournament, this is a call... he could have Q J , and even if he has AT, you have outs and he's plenty covered by your stack.
Since it's a ring game, I echo everyone else's sentiment: this is a fold.
Posted Thu Mar 30, 2006 6:43 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
I don't see any way you can call a pot-sized bet, nor any way to take him off this hand. Fold it away.
Posted Thu Mar 30, 2006 7:38 pm GMT by TxShadow
Mathematically you should fold, especially since your implied odds are nil.
If anyone wants to figure out exact odds, be my guest. I'm estimating the following:
Pot giving you ~ 2.4:1
You making a winning hand ~ 3:1 at best
Feeling lucky?
Posted Sun Apr 02, 2006 1:03 pm GMT by zinn0
Oops...I forgot all about this one.
Anyway, this is a hand that I played live about 2 weeks after I started playing poker. I had no concept of pot odds, etc.
My thinking was, "Hell, I've got top pair with the nut draw...I gotta call." So, of course I called and Villain turns over AJo. Ouch. Regardless, I hit a on the river, Villain looks at me, disgusted, and just walks away from the table. Looking back on it now, I'm a little embarassed.
Posted Sun Apr 02, 2006 2:53 pm GMT by Johny
No need to lie Zinn, we all know you played that hand a few days ago.
Don't worry, we still like you.
Posted Sun Apr 02, 2006 2:55 pm GMT by zinn0
Har Har...
Posted Sun Apr 02, 2006 3:16 pm GMT by Johny
Sorry, I'm bored.
How about open-pushing the turn?
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