Posted Thu Apr 06, 2006 9:27 am GMT by TallBrad
Now, I understand how to calculate pot odds and your chance to win based on outs after the flop. But I hear pros and commentators talking about "getting the right price to call" pre-flop. How do you calculate this just based on your hole cards?
For instance last night I was playing a NL home game. We were down to three people, blinds were $500/$1000. I was in the big blind. The dealer raised to $4000, the little blind called. I had about $16,000 (the other two had about $24,000 - $30,000 each. It would have cost me $3,000 to call into a $9,000 pot. I looked down and saw 6  4 . I thought about making the call but decided to fold. The flop came 3 spades. Irregardless, was I getting the right price to call? If not what cards would I have needed to make the call.
Thanks!
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Posted Thu Apr 06, 2006 9:35 am GMT by Dave B
You were getting 3:1 odds, or $3000 call would at least $9000 if you hit. So if you have a better than 25% change to win, you (mathmatically) are getting a decent price to call.
Now, 25% of your chips is a lot to commit. When committing more than 5-10% of your chips, you need to look at the bigger picture and consider tournament strategy.
I would not call here. Let the other 2 fight it out and hope to get heads up. If the blinds were 1000/2000 and someone min raised and was called, I call 2k more w/ any 2 cards.
Posted Thu Apr 06, 2006 10:01 am GMT by TallBrad
| Dave B wrote: | You were getting 3:1 odds, or $3000 call would at least $9000 if you hit. So if you have a better than 25% change to win, you (mathmatically) are getting a decent price to call.
Now, 25% of your chips is a lot to commit. When committing more than 5-10% of your chips, you need to look at the bigger picture and consider tournament strategy.
I would not call here. Let the other 2 fight it out and hope to get heads up. If the blinds were 1000/2000 and someone min raised and was called, I call 2k more w/ any 2 cards. |
How do I figure if I am getting better than %25 chance to win, when I haven't seen the flop. Is there some chart or calculation you use pre-flop?
My stack size was the main factor in not making the call. If I had been chip leader, I probably would have made the call.
Posted Thu Apr 06, 2006 10:30 am GMT by Dave B
You need to know what % of the time you will win with 64 vs 2 random hands, or in this case, it would be against a hand that would raise 4x bb and a hand that would call it from the small blind.
Since it is 3 handed and you are the small stack in the big blind, I might discount the original raise but be very scared of the call.
If someone has an overpair, you are around 20%. If you are against 4 overcards and someone doesnt have spades, you are about 30%.
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