SnG Hand. Chase the nuts? |
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Posted Tue Apr 11, 2006 9:14 am GMT by Dat_Dude
PokerStars Game #4589244432: Tournament #22875967, Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2006/04/11 - 00:08:31 (ET)
Table '22875967 1' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: BILLSPOT (5370 in chips)
Seat 4: RADON08 (3820 in chips)
Seat 5: Diesel_IA (4310 in chips)
BILLSPOT: posts the ante 50
RADON08: posts the ante 50
Diesel_IA: posts the ante 50
RADON08: posts small blind 300
Diesel_IA: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Diesel_IA  
BILLSPOT: calls 600
RADON08: calls 300
Diesel_IA: checks
*** FLOP ***   
RADON08: bets 1200
Diesel_IA: ???????
Not a real brain bender, but I was just curious what most of you do here? I really don't think I can call here since that pretty much commits me. If I fold, I still have a decent chip stack to move in later, but if I push, I am guaranteed to see the turn and river.
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Posted Tue Apr 11, 2006 10:11 am GMT by BeerWench13
Tough hand here.
If my calculations are correct, there is 3150 in the pot after his 1200 bet. At best, he has a flush. At worst, he's attempting to make a play at this pot. You really only have two options, push or fold. If you just call, he's likely to push on the turn which means you'll probably have to call even if you don't hit.
Assuming that an ace is also an out, you have at best 12 outs, at worst 8 outs. I would probably push here and hope he lays it down. I could be wrong, but 3-handed the odds of him having flopped a flush are slim. He could have two pair and outs for a boat also, but, like I said, tough decision. I would probably push.
Posted Tue Apr 11, 2006 10:17 am GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| BeerWench13 wrote: | | Assuming that an ace is also an out, you have at best 12 outs, at worst 8 outs. |
At worst, you have 5. If villain flopped a flush with a straight flush draw, 4 of your hearts are dead.
Posted Tue Apr 11, 2006 10:21 am GMT by BeerWench13
True. I didn't take into account the straight flush draw.
Posted Tue Apr 11, 2006 10:23 am GMT by zinn0
I think this is a good spot to gamble. The bubble has already burst, time to get some chips or go home!
I push.
Posted Tue Apr 11, 2006 2:56 pm GMT by Johny
I push pre-flop everytime.
I push on the flop too.
Posted Tue Apr 11, 2006 3:10 pm GMT by Phil14312
Push, you probably won't get called by anything besides a flush, trips, or an overpair with a heart. The preflop actions makes the trips or overpair unlikely. Only thing you are fearing is a flush.
Posted Tue Apr 11, 2006 9:59 pm GMT by Tadzio
| Sean_in_NJ wrote: |
At worst, you have 5. If villain flopped a flush with a straight flush draw, 4 of your hearts are dead. |
How are 4 of his hearts dead in that situation? Are you counting the hearts in the villians hand?
Posted Tue Apr 11, 2006 10:22 pm GMT by Dat_Dude
| Johny4444 wrote: | I push pre-flop everytime.
I push on the flop too. |
I had been pushing preflop a lot with similar hands. The only reason I didn't this time was the CALL by the button. After knocking out two people, he had been playing extremely tight and most of his show downs were very solid starting hands. When he called, it immediately threw up a Red Light because I figured he was encouraging me to go all in so he could call.
It turned out he wasn't a factor in the hand anyways, but at the time the action got to me preflop, I noticed he did something out of the ordinary.
Posted Wed Apr 12, 2006 12:40 am GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| Tadzio wrote: | | Sean_in_NJ wrote: |
At worst, you have 5. If villain flopped a flush with a straight flush draw, 4 of your hearts are dead. |
How are 4 of his hearts dead in that situation? Are you counting the hearts in the villians hand? |
Uh, yes? He has a flush, right?
Posted Wed Apr 12, 2006 5:13 am GMT by Johny
| Dat_Dude wrote: | I had been pushing preflop a lot with similar hands. The only reason I didn't this time was the CALL by the button. After knocking out two people, he had been playing extremely tight and most of his show downs were very solid starting hands. When he called, it immediately threw up a Red Light because I figured he was encouraging me to go all in so he could call.
It turned out he wasn't a factor in the hand anyways, but at the time the action got to me preflop, I noticed he did something out of the ordinary. |
Thanks for the explanation, if you had a read then certainly stick with it. It depends on the buy-in too. At the levels I play, a limp in that spot usually means weakness.
Posted Wed Apr 12, 2006 7:17 am GMT by Geno
AX 3-handed has really got to be a pre-flop raise almost every time 
Posted Wed Apr 12, 2006 8:09 am GMT by Dat_Dude
| Geno wrote: | | AX 3-handed has really got to be a pre-flop raise almost every time |
Like I said above, if the tight wad from the button had folded, then I was going to push no matter what. It felt like a trap at the time, so I backed off.
Here is the rest of the hand:
Diesel_IA: raises 2460 to 3660 and is all-in
BILLSPOT: folds
RADON08: calls 1970 and is all-in
*** TURN *** 
*** RIVER *** 
*** SHOW DOWN ***
RADON08: shows   (a flush, King high)
Diesel_IA: shows (a flush, Ace high)
Diesel_IA collected 8290 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 8290 | Rake 0
Board
Seat 1: BILLSPOT (button) folded on the Flop
Seat 4: RADON08 (small blind) showed and lost with a flush, King high
Seat 5: Diesel_IA (big blind) showed and won (8290) with a flush, Ace high
Posted Wed Apr 12, 2006 2:52 pm GMT by Johny
| Geno wrote: | | AX 3-handed has really got to be a pre-flop raise almost every time |
This is very dependant on stack sizes. If everyone has a medium stack, I'm content with seeing the flop if I'm out of position.
In Dat's situation though I'm pushing everytime, if I'm beat than so be it. Although Dat said he had a read, so he followed it.
Posted Tue May 02, 2006 4:19 pm GMT by Cricket_Fire
Can someone tell me if I got the math in this right (this stuff is confusing the bloody hell out of me  ).
Pot odds:
3150/1200= roughly 2.75 to 1
1/(2.75+1)
1/3.75 = roughly 25%
Hand percent:
assuming he has a flush already - 4*7=28%
So, mathematically (if I did this right), are you supposed to call?
Sorry for thread highjacking, just thought this was a good hand to try this math out on.
Posted Wed May 03, 2006 7:00 pm GMT by TxShadow
| Cricket_Fire wrote: | Can someone tell me if I got the math in this right (this stuff is confusing the bloody hell out of me ).
Pot odds:
3150/1200= roughly 2.75 to 1
1/(2.75+1)
1/3.75 = roughly 25%
Hand percent:
assuming he has a flush already - 4*7=28%
So, mathematically (if I did this right), are you supposed to call?
Sorry for thread highjacking, just thought this was a good hand to try this math out on. |
Because the rest of your chips are going to end up in the middle if you miss the turn, most would either push or fold this flop.
If you push, assuming the button folds, and assuming that villain calls (which he almost certainly will), our implied odds are more like (very approximately) 1.7 to 1 (Bet 3170 to win 5120). That's not fantastic pot odds to chase a flush, especially when there is a very good chance that villain is taking some of our outs.
So without the fold equity that we would have had if we'd pushed preflop, mathematically this isn't great. However, this is a tournament, we're in the money, blinds are going up. This isn't a bad spot to gamble either.
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