Posted Sun Apr 23, 2006 7:08 pm GMT by tame_deuces
Live 50$ NL 7 players.
Hero is playing a TAG game.
CO is a tough TAG with a good understanding of the game.
Hero is deep, CO has about 150 BBs.
The flow of the game tells me that OPs will very rarely get folded.
Hero is MP with QQ.
Folds, Hero raises 4xBB, CO makes it 10 more, folds, Hero raises for 20 more, villain calls.
Flop is 2  T  J .
Hero?
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Posted Sun Apr 23, 2006 7:14 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Well, his smooth call pre-flop is probably good for us--he COULD have AA and decided to slow-play, but I think he would have just pushed with it... doubly so for KK because people hate giving a free A on the flop. The problem though, is his betting pattern is perfect for JJ or TT (funny, this is very similar to a thread I posted a day or two ago). But, he could have also beeen re-raising with AQ or AK (or maybe 9's) and decided to slow down.
I think you need to get some information. Bet about 1/3 - 1/2 the pot, and if you get raised, consider folding... being OOP sucks hard. Hard not to go broke with this hand, but remember that you still have only a pair. The only pair combo I can see you beating if all the money goes in is AJs, and I don't know if the TAG would want to go some aggressive with that.
Posted Sun Apr 23, 2006 9:57 pm GMT by Tadzio
You could take a chance and check-raise. Consider laying it down if he re-raises; bet out on the turn if he calls; if he checks behind be wary of a diamond, K or A on the turn. If K comes on the turn, you should dump your hand if you can't get a cheap showdown.... unless one of your Qs is a diamond, in which case I'd probably chase the straight flush just for kicks.
Not a happy spot to be in.
Posted Sun Apr 23, 2006 10:50 pm GMT by Phil14312
The pot is already pretty big at this point, 40 BB or so. That means a bet of 20-30 BB puts you in a tough position if he raises all-in, because you'd be getting about 2-1 (figuring you had roughly 100BB to start). If you know villain will bluff if you check to him, c/r the flop all-in and hope for the best.
Otherwise bet about 1/2 the pot and see what happens. TT or JJ is a big possibility. Decide now if you want to go broke on the hand or not. In other words, tough decision, I don't know what I would do.
Posted Mon Apr 24, 2006 5:59 am GMT by fiezk
That's a horrible flop for your queens considering the pre-flop action. Make a bet on the flop, fold if he raises. If villain is TAG as you said, the only hand you can hope for is AK, and even then he still has 8 outs to win.
Posted Mon Apr 24, 2006 10:18 pm GMT by tame_deuces
We can probably rule out AQ and AJ alltogether. if he has AA it probably gets played this way preflop since I'm OOP. probably not KK, as xDiamond_CutteRx said...people hate giving away a three free cards with KK.
But instead of focusing on what I did do, I want to focus on what I wanted to do, and truth be told the only thing I really wanted to do here was to check/fold.
Weak tight?
Posted Mon Apr 24, 2006 10:30 pm GMT by Tadzio
| tame_deuces wrote: |
Weak tight? |
Yes. You gotta take some kinda stab at that pot.
Posted Tue Apr 25, 2006 5:39 am GMT by tame_deuces
Good good.
Needless to say I did what I always do when I am in doubt. I bet. I find that it is superior to checking in most ways.
Pot is 60ish big blinds for those who wonder. Always trust on me to find myself in big bloated pots I guess.
Hero bets 1/2, Villain calls
Turn: 5 
Hero?
Posted Tue Apr 25, 2006 9:42 am GMT by Soup_dog
Interesting. He cold called the flop, and now the turn. He reraised you preflop and then called the reraise. I would start to get worried now. I know it's weak, but I think I would check the turn and see what he does.
Posted Tue Apr 25, 2006 9:54 am GMT by fiezk
Call me weak tight, but I'd check-fold here. The only hands you can hope for now is Ad Kd, for a good chance to win, and QQ for a split. There are 6 AA, 6 KK 3 JJ and 3 TT that have you drawing to two outs.
Posted Tue Apr 25, 2006 10:00 am GMT by UrAteUp
Possible villian hands to me would be AK, A10, AJ or maybe even QQ. I say put in a pot sized bet here. I want to try to keep him from seeing the river card in case he is playing an AX hand but at the same time I want to minimize loses in case I am behind.
Posted Tue Apr 25, 2006 10:04 am GMT by fiezk
| UrAteUp wrote: | | Possible villian hands to me would be AK, A10, AJ or maybe even QQ. I say put in a pot sized bet here. I want to try to keep him from seeing the river card in case he is playing an AX hand but at the same time I want to minimize loses in case I am behind. |
Villain was TAG and re-raised and then called the dreaded third raise from a TAG player PF. I think we can pretty safely assume he doesn't have an ace weaker than AK, or a pair below TT.
Posted Tue Apr 25, 2006 11:07 am GMT by Soup_dog
| fiezk wrote: | | UrAteUp wrote: | | Possible villian hands to me would be AK, A10, AJ or maybe even QQ. I say put in a pot sized bet here. I want to try to keep him from seeing the river card in case he is playing an AX hand but at the same time I want to minimize loses in case I am behind. |
Villain was TAG and re-raised and then called the dreaded third raise from a TAG player PF. I think we can pretty safely assume he doesn't have an ace weaker than AK, or a pair below TT. |
Exactly. It appears the hero is behind at this point.
Posted Tue Apr 25, 2006 11:37 am GMT by Tadzio
Well, whatever Villain has, the 5 didn't help him so I wouldn't be any more worried on the turn than I was on the flop. However, we're working with more info now.
TAG don't usually just call bets. A 1/2 pot bet gives odds for a draw... why would a TAG call that if he knew he was ahead? There's no better time to make a drawer pay for cards than on the flop after the drawer just invested more chips in the pot-- a TAG almost always raises here while ahead in the hand. I don't think JJ is a possible hand for Villain any longer. TT is still possible, but less likely (there's straight and flush draws on the board, and both would beat your set, wouldn't you defend them?). JTs is almost impossible now. KK and AA are less likely than they were PF, but not much less. Villain on a draw is a lot more likely now. AK is the most likely drawing hand for a TAG Villain in this spot, imo.
TAG bet/raise when they're ahead (or can't win without bluffing), and call only when they're not sure if they're ahead or they have odds on a draw. They fold the rest of the time. Could he be deviating from typical TAG play? And if he's deviating, is he doing so to let Hero have the lead so he can milk Hero, or because odds on the flop bet were just too good to fold a mediocre hand?
More important: What could a TAG have in this spot for us to see this kind of action from him? I'd guess a weak-played TT or a drawing AKs is the most likely, with the scales leaning towards a drawing AKs. I think Tame is ahead right now.
My turn bet would be 3/4 the pot. If 3/4 the pot is more than half the Villain's remaining stack, I might just push here. This should force a TAG to give up on any draws as well as single-pair hands he might have. As I said, I don't think Villain can have JJ anymore, so he should be worried about something. If he has TT, he just might fold to a push. Maybe. Which is why I'd consider pushing if a 3/4 pot bet would commit Villain to his hand.
If Villain calls a 3/4 turn bet, he's not playing TAG anymore and has me baffled.
Posted Tue Apr 25, 2006 11:46 am GMT by Soup_dog
I see your point, but this looks like a trap to me. The villian has position on the hero and is just letting him push his chips in. I get the impression the villian has a strong hand and is not worried about trying to push hero out of the pot.
I would not be surprised to see the villian get all his chips in the pot on the river, whether it's a bet or a raise.
Posted Tue Apr 25, 2006 1:07 pm GMT by BeerWench13
| Soup_dog wrote: | | It appears the hero is behind at this point. |
I have to agree here. Unless villain has QQ also, you're in a tough spot and likely behind.
Posted Tue Apr 25, 2006 3:51 pm GMT by fiezk
| Tadzio wrote: | Well, whatever Villain has, the 5 didn't help him so I wouldn't be any more worried on the turn than I was on the flop. However, we're working with more info now.
TAG don't usually just call bets. A 1/2 pot bet gives odds for a draw... why would a TAG call that if he knew he was ahead? There's no better time to make a drawer pay for cards than on the flop after the drawer just invested more chips in the pot-- a TAG almost always raises here while ahead in the hand. I don't think JJ is a possible hand for Villain any longer. TT is still possible, but less likely (there's straight and flush draws on the board, and both would beat your set, wouldn't you defend them?). JTs is almost impossible now. KK and AA are less likely than they were PF, but not much less. Villain on a draw is a lot more likely now. AK is the most likely drawing hand for a TAG Villain in this spot, imo.
TAG bet/raise when they're ahead (or can't win without bluffing), and call only when they're not sure if they're ahead or they have odds on a draw. They fold the rest of the time. Could he be deviating from typical TAG play? And if he's deviating, is he doing so to let Hero have the lead so he can milk Hero, or because odds on the flop bet were just too good to fold a mediocre hand?
More important: What could a TAG have in this spot for us to see this kind of action from him? I'd guess a weak-played TT or a drawing AKs is the most likely, with the scales leaning towards a drawing AKs. I think Tame is ahead right now.
My turn bet would be 3/4 the pot. If 3/4 the pot is more than half the Villain's remaining stack, I might just push here. This should force a TAG to give up on any draws as well as single-pair hands he might have. As I said, I don't think Villain can have JJ anymore, so he should be worried about something. If he has TT, he just might fold to a push. Maybe. Which is why I'd consider pushing if a 3/4 pot bet would commit Villain to his hand.
If Villain calls a 3/4 turn bet, he's not playing TAG anymore and has me baffled. |
According to the description of Villain, he's also a good player. After Hero puts in the third raise there are just about only three hands he can have (where KK and AA are the more likely). Given that he 'would know' Hero's only drawing to two outs, calling the flop might not be such a bad play for him.
Posted Wed Apr 26, 2006 7:17 pm GMT by Tadzio
So did you check/fold, Tame?
Posted Wed Apr 26, 2006 7:52 pm GMT by tame_deuces
Yeah, if money went in on the turn it would be for the remainder of his stack, 90-100BBs or so, and I smelled a rat and abandoned ship - I'll admit it was a questionable move, since the pot was really big at this point (100BBs+), which is also why I posted the hand here. Check/folding an OP in a big pot is not something I do very often.
He didn't show (which is the norm for the game).
Thoughts and criticism are welcomed (for all streets played).
Posted Thu Apr 27, 2006 4:46 am GMT by red_pen
I would like to ask a few questions.
I would like to know what hero would have done on the flop had hero held:
JJ?
TT?
AKo?
AdKd?
AA?
KK?
And are any of these hands incompatible with hero’s pre-flop play?
A very tough spot indeed.
Posted Thu Apr 27, 2006 9:39 am GMT by tame_deuces
| red_pen wrote: | I would like to ask a few questions.
I would like to know what hero would have done on the flop had hero held:
JJ?
TT?
AKo?
AdKd?
AA?
KK?
And are any of these hands incompatible with hero’s pre-flop play?
A very tough spot indeed. |
Pretty much the same thing on the flop, bets may vary between 1/2-2/3 of the pot regardless of hand.
As for being incompatible with my PF play...I probably don't have TT here versus a TAG very often, and I wouldn't put in a 3rd with AKo too often when OOP, once in a while I'd probably do it.
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