Posted Tue Apr 25, 2006 10:17 am GMT by BeerWench13
Sorry, guys I forgot to save the HH.
$25 NL Hero has been sitting for less than one orbit, posted BB and folded to a big raise. 2nd hand at this table.
Hero SB $24.50
Villain 1 BB $42.50
Villain 2 UTG $27.75
UTG limps, MP limps, Button limps.
Hero has Q  J  and limps from SB. BB checks.
Flop
A  K  T
Wow! I flopped the nuts. No flush draw at this point, so I'll see how much I can get in the middle by check/raising.
Hero checks. BB bets $3. UTG calls. Folds to hero who calls.
My first instinct was to raise. I think calling here was my mistake. But I'd been watching BB while waiting to post and he seemed pretty LAG. UTG was in every hand and appeared to be a calling station having called the previous big bet and all-in on the flop w/ 33.
Pot $10.25
Turn 4
Hero bets $4. BB folds. UTG raises to $8. Hero pushes for $17.25. UTG calls.
River
2
Villain had K Q
Now, I thought I killed his odds with the push. Did he make a good call here?
I can't fault his play because with that many outs, I may have done the same, but from an odds persepective, did he have proper odds?
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Posted Tue Apr 25, 2006 11:24 am GMT by Soup_dog
Just doing quick math in my head, I think he had 3:1 pot odds and 4:1 odds for hitting the flush. So no, he didn't have odds, but it was close.
Someone please correct me if that's wrong.
Posted Tue Apr 25, 2006 11:32 am GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| Soup_dog wrote: | Just doing quick math in my head, I think he had 3:1 pot odds and 4:1 odds for hitting the flush. So no, he didn't have odds, but it was close.
Someone please correct me if that's wrong. |
He doesn't know she has a straight, so he can probably count his 3 J's and 2 K's as well, although he'd have to discount them a bit against a set or QJ.
Posted Tue Apr 25, 2006 11:38 am GMT by Soup_dog
| Sean_in_NJ wrote: | | Soup_dog wrote: | Just doing quick math in my head, I think he had 3:1 pot odds and 4:1 odds for hitting the flush. So no, he didn't have odds, but it was close.
Someone please correct me if that's wrong. |
He doesn't know she has a straight, so he can probably count his 3 J's and 2 K's as well, although he'd have to discount them a bit against a set or QJ. |
good point
Posted Tue Apr 25, 2006 11:46 am GMT by BeerWench13
Like I said, I'm not really faulting his play, I'm just wondering if he had proper odds. I know I made a mistake in not raising on the flop, but I'm not sure he'd have folded anyway having seen a few hands he'd played previously.
When it was all said and done I just said "nh", but another guy at the table said "No it wasn't. What a horrible suckout." That's what prompted my question. Personally, I don't think he made a bad play, but I was trying to figure his odds.
Posted Tue Apr 25, 2006 12:01 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
Equity from villain's perspective, assuming hero doesn't push the turn with less than two pair.
| pokerstove wrote: | Board: As Kd Tc 4s
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 29.7610 % 29.00% 00.76% { KsQs }
Hand 2: 70.2390 % 69.47% 00.76% { KK+, TT, 44, AKs, ATs, A4s, KTs, K4s, QJs, AKo, ATo, A4o, KTo, K4o, QJo } |
Roughly 2.33:1? And some of these hands, like AA and KK, are unlikely in this situation.
Posted Tue Apr 25, 2006 12:02 pm GMT by BeerWench13
Thanks, Sean.
Posted Tue Apr 25, 2006 12:12 pm GMT by tame_deuces
I dont' like his flopcall, middlepair is crap on that flop and his outs are tainted maybe except for the Ks. His turn play was astoundingly horrible though. Clearcut call situation from his part, minraising there with middlepair is disgusting beyond belief, draw or no draw.
As for your play I'd get more in on flop, especially since you close the action and everyone has donated. Probably not too much though. Rainbow broadway in a limped pot is pretty damn solid As played I probably bet more on turn on general principle not hindsight.
Posted Tue Apr 25, 2006 12:29 pm GMT by BeerWench13
| tame_deuces wrote: | | As for your play I'd get more in on flop |
Yeah, that's where I think I made the biggest mistake. I should've raised the flop. I realized that as soon as the turn hit.
| tame_deuces wrote: | | I probably bet more on turn |
My idea with leading with a small bet on the turn was that I figured he'd min-raise, given my observation of his earlier play, and it would allow me to push. In hindsight, I probably should've just overbet right out of the shute.
Posted Tue Apr 25, 2006 12:37 pm GMT by tame_deuces
| BeerWench13 wrote: |
My idea with leading with a small bet on the turn was that I figured he'd min-raise, given my observation of his earlier play, and it would allow me to push. In hindsight, I probably should've just overbet right out of the shute. |
In that case I think it was a fine play, what mattered was getting his chips in while you had the best hand. That the river card was a 'bad one' is really besides the point. We earn more by him putting his chips in with bad odds than by him folding in the long run. 
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