Sit N' Go Break Even point |
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Posted Fri May 05, 2006 7:20 pm GMT by General Sal
Well, after looking at all these numbers, I'm kind of itching to get some play in, and I got tired of trying to figure it out on my own. Either way, I was wondering....
what percentage of the time do you have to place in the money, 1st, 2nd or 3rd, in a one table sit n' go, assuming a 10% juice, in order to just purely break even? If you can direct a link to somewhere, great. If you did the math, could you show me the math? Thanks.
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Posted Fri May 05, 2006 7:41 pm GMT by Geno
Here we go using $10+1 as an example and assuming a 10-handed table:
Buy-in : $11 total
Prizes : $50/$30/$20
Profits : $39/$19/$9
Break even is therefore at 2.8th place so you need one 2nd place and four 3rd place finishes on average out of 5 games to break even. Of course you can just win every 3rd game and turn a profit 
Posted Sun May 07, 2006 12:20 am GMT by J-Dee
Doesn't PokerTracker calculate this for you?
The key is, to get a TON of first place finishes, which means really shoring up your HH gameplay. I played 500 $10/1 SnG's, and after awhile I really tightened up my HH play and significantly increased my ROI%. I can't stress how key this becomes in the long-term.
It's very realistic to finish ITM 40% of the time which could be a "break even" point or a VERY nice ROI. If all of those places are 1sts instead of 3rds, you're gonna be sitting pretty and not even worry about breaking even. 
Posted Sun May 07, 2006 8:59 am GMT by Geno
| J-Dee wrote: | | It's very realistic to finish ITM 40% of the time |
I agree that low 40s seems to be about the average ITM% people seem to report but ITM is a horrible statistic and is as good as useless in terms of break-even.
If you are ITM in 3rd place every time, your % needs to be an ungodly 55% to just break even which is definitely not sustainable. If you get 1st every time you are ITM, the % can be as low as 22% (buy-in/prize for that position).
Posted Sun May 07, 2006 2:21 pm GMT by General Sal
I think you're a little bit off with the math.... here goes....
So, for placing 1st: You need to win 18% of the time to break even.
11 times you win $50 is equal to the 50 times you lose eleven dollars. Therefore, you need to win 11 times out of 61 tries to break even.
11 wins for 50 dollars + 50 loses losing $11 = 0
11(50) + 50 (-11) = 0
11 wins : 50 loses is an odds number that must be converted to percentage. Therefore, 11:50 = 11/61. 11/61 = 18%. You need to win 18 times out of 100 in order to break even.
As far as 2nd place, using the same equation, you'd need to win 26.8% of the time to break even.
As far as 3rd place, you'd need to win 52.4% of the time to break even.
Where I go from here, I'm not sure... do you add the percentages together and divide by 3 to get the percentage I need to break even?
Posted Sun May 07, 2006 3:29 pm GMT by Geno
| General Sal wrote: | I think you're a little bit off with the math.... here goes....
So, for placing 1st: You need to win 18% of the time to break even.
11 times you win $50 is equal to the 50 times you lose eleven dollars. Therefore, you need to win 11 times out of 61 tries to break even.
11 wins for 50 dollars + 50 loses losing $11 = 0
11(50) + 50 (-11) = 0
11 wins : 50 loses is an odds number that must be converted to percentage. Therefore, 11:50 = 11/61. 11/61 = 18%. You need to win 18 times out of 100 in order to break even.
As far as 2nd place, using the same equation, you'd need to win 26.8% of the time to break even.
As far as 3rd place, you'd need to win 52.4% of the time to break even.
Where I go from here, I'm not sure... do you add the percentages together and divide by 3 to get the percentage I need to break even? |
OK, I like your math but your 3rd place calculation is off. By your equation, the % wins required is found by taking the buy-in and dividing it by the prize for that placing plus the buy-in. This gives:
11/61 = 18%
11/41 = 27%
11/31 = 35% not 52%
Clearly, since the $9 profit you make for 3rd does not cover the next buy-in if you do not profit, the ITM% for finishing 3rd MUST be over 50% for a profit to be made in the long run. So now I'm confused
Posted Sun May 07, 2006 5:36 pm GMT by General Sal
quote]
OK, I like your math but your 3rd place calculation is off. By your equation, the % wins required is found by taking the buy-in and dividing it by the prize for that placing plus the buy-in. This gives:
11/61 = 18%
11/41 = 27%
11/31 = 35% not 52%
Clearly, since the $9 profit you make for 3rd does not cover the next buy-in if you do not profit, the ITM% for finishing 3rd MUST be over 50% for a
profit to be made in the long run. So now I'm confused /quote
You're right... it should be 35%. For finishing 3rd, you have to win only 35% of the time, not 52%. The average of all 3 of these percentages is 26%... if that average works to indicate anything.
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