Runner,runner,runner,runner!!!! |
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Posted Sun May 07, 2006 12:09 am GMT by chew
This happened to me the other night at a live game at a friends house. A hand that put me out, just out of the money.
I know this situation wouldn't normally be even considered because all 3 flop cards are usually dealt together at the same time. But because it was just a friendly home game showdown, the dealer turned all 5 board cards one at a time (slowly).
BB 100
LooseCannon 92o
Chew KK
LC riases 400 to 500
Chew re-raises 1200 to 1700 (all-in)
LC calls
First Card K
Second 8
Third 6
Turn 10
River 7
You can imagine how I went from  to  in the time it took to flip 4 cards.
Any math experts out there know odds of him hitting his runner, runner, runner, runner?
My odds calculator wont calculate with only 1 board card.
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Posted Sun May 07, 2006 9:19 pm GMT by Dave B
you were all in preflop, the order of the cards were completely immaterial.
Posted Mon May 08, 2006 6:47 am GMT by chew
I know its immaterial.
I'm simply interested in the odds of getting all of the last four cards to hit his straight.
Is that too much to ask?
Posted Mon May 08, 2006 8:25 am GMT by Dave B
A little.
It is especially odds since the 3 cards come at once on the flop, not exactly 1st, 2nd, 3rd.
If you want the answer, just look into what the odds are of getting a straight at 5 card stud.
Posted Mon May 08, 2006 11:04 am GMT by tame_deuces
Board: Kc
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
96.7535 % 96.54% 00.22% { KK }
03.2465 % 03.03% 00.22% { 92o }
Now, it doesn't count the odds of him getting his straight, but now you know how big a favourite you were.
Posted Mon May 15, 2006 12:27 pm GMT by jbark
since you did not have any cards that would have helped him make the straight AND all cards have been turned up (all-in right?) the probability is:
16/47*12/46*8/45*4/44= 6144/4280760= 0.0014353 slightly rounded.
in odds that would be about 13.4:10000 or 1.3 to 1000 or .00134 depending on how you like your numbers.
very unlikely, push again next time....
cheers
jerry
Posted Wed Jun 14, 2006 2:28 am GMT by Jefecaminador
he has a better chance of winning than that. any card containing his straight would help him. meaning 5 6 7 8 10 j q K add to his straight. also he could hit 3 more 9's or 3 more 2's. The formula is a little more complicated than what you put out.
Posted Sun Jun 18, 2006 7:03 am GMT by jbark
| Jefecaminador wrote: | | he has a better chance of winning than that. |
of course you are right about his chance of winning, and NO ONE should take MY advice on when to push:oops: i did not try to consider all of the ways his hand would win which would be much more complicated.
the original question only asked the odds of hitting the straight and I believe that i have that right.
cheers
jerry/b
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