Uncle Johnny's Story Corner -SNG ITM% |
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Posted Tue May 09, 2006 4:02 am GMT by JohnnyCache
Juan Dinero’s guide to profit taking from sit and go poker tournaments
Occasionlly, I see a forum post or a faq question basically asking, “How many sngs do I have to win to consider myself “good” and/or turn a profit?”
It isn’t the world’s simplest question, but it ain’t rocket surgery either.
It varies a little from SNG to SNG, but here’s the basics of how to figure out what % ITM you have to hit to make money.
Say we have a fairly normal SNG structure . . . 10+1, nine player.
There are three places paid – 50, 25, 15 (it’s just an example, don’t melt your head over it not matching with this site or that site). That’s the ninety player dollars accounted for – if you’re super new to tournament poker, the second number (the add) is the house juice.
Now, to figure what ITM you need to hit on a regular basis, you figure the average profit (conventional wisdom dictates your finishes once the game gets short should be about evenly spread…if you’re a better short handed player, good for you, you’ll have some “slack” if you use this system)
The average profit per finish is simple: The player money divided by the number of finishes, minus one buy-in. So 90/3 is 30, minus 11 – the average finish for this tournament is 30 dollars, you paid 11 to play, so you make 19 dollars profit.
The normally distributed odds of finishing are 1/3. Note that 30 is less then three times the buy in - 33, so you will have to do better then “break even” to make money.
Now say you enter this tournament 100 times – that costs you 1,100 dollars.
You divide this number by the average finish (your prize before you subtract the buy-in, remember). 1,100/30=36.66^
You need 36 and 2/3 finishes out of your hundred plays, on average, to pay for the tournament. by
So you need an ITM around 37% to actually MAKE money. You have to beat the break even players by 4 out of 100 finishes.
What if there are 10 players, with three places of 55, 30, 15.
(100/3) = $33.33^
Your odds of placing are now 30 percent – slightly lower, but the prize is a few dollars higher.
So lets play 100 times again – 1,100 dollars in entry fees, divided by 33.33 dollars, you get 33 – your 34th win in one hundred pays you, so you need a ITM percentage of 34 or better. You have to beat the raw odds by 4 finishes in 100. That’s a lower number then the nine person SNG, but you have to go over an extra person to do it…you’ll have to weigh that.
We’ll do another breakdown with a shallower tournament – a six person, 20+3 sng.
Your prizes are 60, 36, 24. The player money divided by the number of finishes is an average finish of 40 – an average profit of 17 bucks.
Your raw odds of finishing are 1 in 2. That’s pretty good. That means a “break even” player has a 50% chance, the same chance of money! This is a pretty beatable tournament, right?
Let’s play 100.
2300 in entry fees divided by our average money finish of 40 -57.5 percent! You have to beat the raw odds by 7.5% - essentially, 8 out of 100 finishes more then a ‘break even’ player to beat this “easy” tournament.
Thoughts?
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Posted Tue May 09, 2006 9:24 pm GMT by weirdofreek
"Oh no I've gone cross-eyed"
Posted Wed May 10, 2006 3:13 am GMT by JohnnyCache
hee hee
I don't really do math quite like other people
Posted Wed May 10, 2006 7:25 am GMT by Dave B
For 9 players isnt it just 33%x1.1 or 36.3%
10 handed 30%x1.1 or 33%?
Posted Wed May 10, 2006 9:06 am GMT by JohnnyCache
well I guess Dave but no one ever told me to just go "33*1.1" I had to kludge it out myself.
My way amuses me more 
Posted Wed May 10, 2006 9:25 am GMT by Dave B
Simple algebra is just:
10 handed ($50x+$30x+$20x)/3=$11 x=33%
Makes sense because the rake is 10%, so 30% place ITM or 30% plus 10%
Posted Wed May 10, 2006 1:43 pm GMT by General Sal
Jesus Christ, I'm a moron. I addressed this in a previous post:
http://www.texasholdem-poker.com/forum/t16898/sit-n-go-break-even-point
I don't know why I always find the hardest way to do things.... it's so simple... how'd you get so smart, Dave?/url
Posted Wed May 10, 2006 4:06 pm GMT by greathuskie
you made the cashout total 90 dollars, but the buy in for every game 10+1?
retry like everything you did involving those numbers
Posted Thu May 11, 2006 1:14 am GMT by JohnnyCache
| greathuskie wrote: | you made the cashout total 90 dollars, but the buy in for every game 10+1?
retry like everything you did involving those numbers |
AHm
no.
read the post again.
Posted Thu May 11, 2006 5:41 am GMT by snoogins47
| greathuskie wrote: | you made the cashout total 90 dollars, but the buy in for every game 10+1?
retry like everything you did involving those numbers |
Now, I've gone cross-eyed.
Posted Thu May 11, 2006 7:52 am GMT by Dave B
the original post was for a 9 handed SNG not 10. Hence, $90 prize money.
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