Speculative Hands Pre-flop |
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Posted Fri May 12, 2006 12:37 pm GMT by lwestatbus
Does anyone have any insights on playing speculative hands pre-flop in FL ring games? By speculative hands I mean middle or low suited connectors, Suited aces or kings with second card pretty low, upper/middle unsuited connectors (9/T or T/J), and small pairs.
I am finding that the biggest aspect of my game that I have control over that determines winning or losing outcomes is how well these speculative hands do for me. Monster starting cards, monster flops, suck outs (either way), and streaks of super or lousy starting cards all contribute to winning and losing but are beyond my control and I'm pretty comfortable with playing them when they happen.
But I have dumped a lot of money into chasing flush and straight draws and have made a lot of money catching them as well as sets to a low pair. On a session-by-session basis it is the success of these cards that have the biggest outcome over the long run on whether I've won or lost at the session. Hence, this aspect of the game needs to be the next step in Larry's poker play rehabilitation project (donations gratefully accepted).
A couple of points:
1. The books all describe these hands as being playable in multiway pots. How big is "multiway"? Any ideas?
2. In suited cards and connectors you have the potential of buying into a stream of bets needed before you learn whether you have made or not made your hand. This is if you flop a 4-flush or a straight draw.
3. How does the play of these cards change if there are raises preflop? These speculative hands get most of their value from the possibility of making your big hand. Almost by definition, the cards contributing to this for you are not helping most raising pre-flop hands. Clearly some exceptions.
3.a. If there is one raise with multiple callers it seems to me that you are in the same situation as you might be in an unraised pot, just the stakes are higher. Opinions?
3.b. I've been in a couple of situations with a small pair in a pot that went into a pre-flop frenzy with at least three other players capping the betting. I am tempted to play these as long as I see that there are going to be multiple callers. These hands have the stealth benefit when they make their sets and the added benefit of the likelyhood that the original bettors will continue to pour money into the pot. But how many callers are enough?
I'm pretty comfortable with post-flop play on all of this as the odds and outs are pretty straightforward. But any analysis or experience on playing these pre-flop would be greatly appreciated.
By the way, is it "pre flop", "pre-flop", or "preflop"? Moderator. Do we need a forum on Poker Grammar?
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Posted Sat May 13, 2006 10:37 am GMT by LeafsFan1122
| lwestatbus wrote: | | 1. The books all describe these hands as being playable in multiway pots. How big is "multiway"? Any ideas? |
Generally speaking a multiway pot is one in which you're against more than one opponent. Is the book you're reading Sklansky's Winning Small Stakes Holdem by any chance? I'm in the middle of that one and actually just past the chapter about the different hand cateogories. Sklanksky sums it up pretty well so if you're not reading WSSH, you may wanna look into it.
| lwestatbus wrote: | | By the way, is it "pre flop", "pre-flop", or "preflop"? Moderator. Do we need a forum on Poker Grammar? |
"Pre" is a prefix...Always saw Preflop as the right way to go, but does it really matter? 
Posted Wed May 24, 2006 2:22 pm GMT by foldhappy
The main thing is to play those cards in position, that way you have a better handling on whether or not you have the right odds to play. This also allows you to manipulate the pot, which is very important.
Let's say you're on the button with J10s. There are 4 limpers in front of you, so you call as well. The flop comes down with 2 of your suit and the first player bets, the other 3 call. This is a great spot to be in as you obviously have the odds to play, but you can also manipulate the other players and the pot. You can raise here on a cheap street, which
A) gets money in the pot BEFORE you make your flush, which is money you might not get if others will fold if you hit on the turn
B) may tie people to the pot for the rest of the hand even if you make your flush, since the pot will get bigger and they may pick up a redraw with a decent card of that suit
C) gives you the option to take a free card if checked around to you, thus reducing the cost of your draw
D) makes it harder for opponents to put you on a hand
Posted Wed May 24, 2006 3:25 pm GMT by lwestatbus
Happy--thanks for your response. I was afraid that my little post was going to languish with only one response. Hopefully this will bump it back to the top of the list and breathe some more life into it.
Interesting point and even more interesting analysis behind it. I REALLY like your insights on play on the flop with this hand for two reasons.
First, the potential for post flop play follows in a reverse planning way to decisions about playing these before the flop. Second, not only does your discussion it make sense in its own right, but it turned on the lights for me on one more aspect of this mysterious thing called "position."
I especially like the stealth aspect of raising before the flush is obvious on the board.
Very, very nice.
Posted Wed May 24, 2006 3:28 pm GMT by Phil14312
Hey I was still planning on writing a big long response :D but I've been busy lately, coming attractions, I'll write something up.
Posted Wed May 24, 2006 5:31 pm GMT by Iron Butt
| Quote: | | 3.b. I've been in a couple of situations with a small pair in a pot that went into a pre-flop frenzy with at least three other players capping the betting. I am tempted to play these... But how many callers are enough? |
Well, odds-wise you need about 8-1 I believe, so I guess 4 opponents is the magic number you'd need to call the first raise. But this is a leak as I understand it, 3 bets is just too much to pay for your 11% -ish chance of a set which of course is not going to be good every time. Especially in limit where in order to get the big pot you need people in there drawing against you, as opposed to NL where you will more likely be able to isolate and potentially double up with only one opponent drawing against you. But I'm interested in how the resident LAGs see it... :D
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