Posted Sat May 13, 2006 10:27 pm GMT by kainARGH
I'm quiting NL at my local casino. After an entire month of just the most sh1t luck , I mean.... 2 months ago , i was playing everyday , and had roughly a 66% success rate IE 33% I lost my buy in , but 66% of the time I tripled up or more! I was doing great after 3 weeks , up nearly 10 buy ins after 20 or so sessions , then one day I lost. The next day , i lost. Lost 85% of the time , would double up every now and again , but not tripleing up like i was..... I lost nearly 30 str8 buy ins over the next 50 buy in attempts.
So i quit playing for like 3 weeks.
I played yesterday. lose to a flush draw , lose to a flush draw , then lose to a turned set. 2 buy ins gone.
Today , my fault yes , but my Aqs lost to Ako when i raised on the button and SB happens to have ak.
Next , what makes me rant about bad luck , as this hand just dumbfounded me , let me explain the lady i lost to. EVERYONES DREAM FISH. Her very first hand , calls 5 pf. Shes got AQo , flops nothing , checks , guy bets 5$ she calls. Turn blank she checks guy bets 15$ she calls. River blank , she flips over her cards. Guy bets 10$ , she calls with ace high. DREAM FISH
Now , I get AA on the button - family pot i raise. 5 callers. Flop , 910j , and a guy from early bets out a feeler bet - she calls. Im feeling i need to see what the turn brings and how my 2 opponents play it off , so i call opting to gather more info. turn is a 6 , first guy bets the same bet as on the flop - obviously weak , or at least not strong. She then goes all in? For all I know she just hit a 6 ? Anyway , i had 15$ left and she bet 12$ she was short. I call and she flips over KQo
the last 20 or so hands , shes been telling me her hands , " darn i folded 3 of a kind " or " i jsut had k7 twice " I saw her make this same play when the baord was JJJ42 , a guy bet 1/4 the pot and she went all in - she shows down 55 when the first guy - completly confused - had the 4. He was certain she had the J lol.
Now i could go on and list dozens of times i get rivered......waaaaaa it happens to the best of us. My point here is , I've now lost more money in situations i was favorit , then I've won over the last few months? what the hell?
people talk about in the long run , it all evens out. You want people calling with weak hands where you have the best of it , you make money in the long run , in the long run , in the long run. Maybe i just need to play more? I do relize this is a small amount of hands/buy ins - but im that guy .... you know the one you watch take repeated bad beats - the guy who enver catches a break - the guy you just sit back and think " damn , that sucks! glad thats not me ". I've just been sick to my stomach playing NL lately.
Its begining to seriously take its toll on me mentally. So this is my last resort , i quit NL online , and im quiting NL live. I'm quiting untill i have 100 buy ins - for either - and i can play so much NL it makes me sick.
In the mean time , vote in the poll 
/off to drink myself stupid
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Posted Sat May 13, 2006 10:44 pm GMT by LeafsFan1122
I'd bet you'll come back to NL. I give you...3 weeks at max.
You can't just quit like that because you've taken a few bad beats. Skill does win more than luck in the longrun. Just take it easy and keep on improving. A break from NL seems to be alot more reasonable than quitting it. Good luck with whatever you do. 8)
Posted Sat May 13, 2006 10:53 pm GMT by JackKingOff
some people play w/ their charms... even the pros do... but know that skill does obviously own luck in da long run because % say so... if u get ur money in on the best hand every single time... % say u should win
Posted Sun May 14, 2006 1:57 am GMT by tame_deuces
You know the lady from your post...I don't think the three stories you posted were really that bad poker. We can argue the AQ calldown, but if the guy is loose and its head's up it probably isn't a major mistake + his riverbet sucked.
However, calling with AA on a board of 9TJ in a 5-way multiway pot like you said you did is a big mistake.
As for the poll....bad luck, playing good poker, doing well or going broke are mostly just different names for random events.
Posted Sun May 14, 2006 9:54 am GMT by supafrey
every poker player should eventually learn that they're not special, or they're gonna lose alot of money.
Posted Sun May 14, 2006 12:15 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
"In my experience, there's no such thing as luck." - Obi-Wan Kenobi
If it's good enough for Alec Guiness, it's good enough for me. In the short run, you can beat the odds, but I sincerely doubt there is some outside force acting on the game that makes some people "lucky" and others "unlucky." My roommate claims it is my lack of belief that accounts for my occasional shitty runs of "uck." So suit yourself.
Posted Sun May 14, 2006 12:58 pm GMT by kainARGH
| tame_deuces wrote: | | You know the lady from your post...I don't think the three stories you posted were really that bad poker. We can argue the AQ calldown, but if the guy is loose and its head's up it probably isn't a major mistake + his riverbet sucked.. |
Actually , the first hand where she called down with ace high , I was laughing really hard on the inside because I thought the other guy was being caught bluffing lol. He did flop bottem pair weak kicker though.
But you can have faith , that if you were playing at the table with her , you'd never want her to leave.
| tame_deuces wrote: | | However, calling with AA on a board of 9TJ in a 5-way multiway pot like you said you did is a big mistake. |
Whats funny is , in hindsight , the only way i could have not gone broke would have been to grosly overbet PF and win the blinds. I was basically destined to lose it - as she would have called up to about 6$ - but I mean i want the call of course , AA VS KQo is 90% to win.
To everyone else , comments are appreciated like always. However this short run of - whatever you wanna call it - has taken its toll. I'm not gonna play NL untill I can dedicate enough time to neutralize any short run of **** and have good play pay off.
@supa How long until the mojo swings my way  IE if im 75% to win and lose a 5$ pot , odds say im basically winning 3.75 every time. However ive lost say 50$ on that same bet , so im still waiting for the turnaround - 
Posted Sun May 14, 2006 1:08 pm GMT by kainARGH
one final note , you guys are awsome. 100% voted for skill > luck 
Just what I wanted to wake up too.
Posted Sun May 14, 2006 2:39 pm GMT by jimmer
Over say 1 million hands, you will get as many good hands as you do bad ones, it's how you play those hands which decides how good you are as a player. I'e SKILL
However, you do get long periods of bad hands, of which you need to sit there and do nothing. If this happens in a torny, you could say luck as some part to play. Obviously you then need to start steeling the blinds and bluffing-but this is high risk and relies on a high element of luck. The same rules apply in the later stages of a torny. Sometimes I'm short stacked and get great cards, other times I have to go all-in with King or queen high. (as my stack is so small).
To sum up, I'm 100% under the heading of skill, but you can see why some players feel they are unlucky at times.
Posted Mon May 15, 2006 12:15 pm GMT by BeerWench13
Everyone gets unlucky. It's part of the game. If luck wasn't concerned, there would be a huge factor taken from the thrill of the game. The key is to have the skill to compensate for the times you get unlucky. If you play properly, you should come out ahead in the long run. Each individual session is just a battle. What matters is whether or not you win the war.
Posted Mon May 15, 2006 2:49 pm GMT by UrAteUp
It's not a matter of bad luck...its really VARIANCE. To explain that a little more...we all know how a hand is favored by x%. Well variance is when the -x% kicks in and we lose. It happens and might last awhile. Just make sure your playing your A game and using all your skill and variance can be kept to a minimum.
Posted Mon May 15, 2006 3:43 pm GMT by zeroswarm
I voted for option 2 seeings as no1 else did.
Now I must go hunt a rabbit and cut off its foot..... 
Posted Mon May 15, 2006 4:19 pm GMT by jimmer
| zeroswarm wrote: | | Now I must go hunt a rabbit and cut off its foot..... |
That's the best reply ever!!!!
Posted Mon May 15, 2006 9:13 pm GMT by JohnnyCache
Hey...come on guys, don't you know it's unlucky to be superstitious?
Posted Tue May 16, 2006 1:20 am GMT by supafrey
| Quote: | | @supa How long until the mojo swings my way Laughing IE if im 75% to win and lose a 5$ pot , odds say im basically winning 3.75 every time. However ive lost say 50$ on that same bet , so im still waiting for the turnaround |
Once you play a couple hundred thousand hands you stop caring. Well... almost, atleast.
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