Posted Mon May 15, 2006 11:44 pm GMT by Dave B
Final of a 3 of a $30 SNG. I wont mention who I was but this is the scenario:
Player A, big blind ($800) stack = 10,700
Player B, small blind ($400) = 8,700
Player C, button = 600
Player C folds, player B raises 1800, player A calls w/ 65 suited
Flop A 7 4 rainbow, player B moves all in
What would you do? Why?
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Posted Tue May 16, 2006 12:04 am GMT by tutubird
I would fold. I think this shows the conservative side of me. I don't think your getting pot odds to call. If you fold you still have a decent amount of chips left. And also I personally woulden't want to cripple myself if I call and lose because the button's chip stack is so small it is almost garenteed atleast 2nd if you stick around with your stack.
Posted Tue May 16, 2006 12:21 am GMT by Sean_in_NJ
If I'm A, I think I fold here. Player C is all-in next hand anyway, and I'm going to be pot committed for the other 200 in the SB.
So did he turn his straight, Player B? 
*edit* On second thought, I'd rather call. Just cuz it's fun.
Posted Tue May 16, 2006 1:04 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
This is an easy fold in my mind. With C on life support, it's best to conserve your chips for the heads-up contest.
1. You are not getting odds on an open-ended straight draw.
2. You do not want to take the chances of calling, losing, and then having Player C win two all-ins in a row and put YOU on life support.
3. Why is A calling with 65s in the first place? 3-handed in this structure is agame of high cards, and I see absolutely NO point in getting involved in this hand.
4. You are losing significant REAL money if A botches this and takes 3rd. With his stack, odds are he has at least guaranteed himself 2nd.
Posted Tue May 16, 2006 1:04 am GMT by kainARGH
I just don't see how you can make the call. Its far too risky imo.
However the up side to makething the call - if you hit your str8 , your guarenteed 1st.
Posted Tue May 16, 2006 1:14 am GMT by supafrey
easy fold
Posted Tue May 16, 2006 5:07 am GMT by Johny
I fold this on the flop and pre-flop too. At this stage of the SnG if you draw against a preflop raiser, it will more than likely cost you a significant portion of your stack.
You were player B and A called?
Posted Tue May 16, 2006 5:56 am GMT by JohnnyCache
There's a certain desire to "play for first" but I wouldn't even be in this hand with C about to get gutted by the blinds unless I had something like aces or kings.
Posted Tue May 16, 2006 7:04 am GMT by Dave B
I was player A w/ the 65. I called the raise on the flop because there is no way this guy makes a call if I go all in on the flop. The problem was, he beat me to it. How can you not call this preflop? 65 suited, 2600 in the pot, 2.6:1 to call, in position, folded player on life support. This hand will likely decide who has the chip lead heads up.
Who folds preflop? I make this preflop call everytime.
Now facing the all in after the flop, I dont know what to do.
Posted Tue May 16, 2006 7:12 am GMT by JohnnyCache
A couple blinds heads up isn't worth getting shot in the leg without a strong hand to stand on. If you call the guy's all in you move from a nice 1st to a lousy second, get carved for a blind and an ante, and you're suddenly gambling your next blind deal is better then someone else's - you give up a nice shot at first for cutting cards for second.
65,45, and 78 are money pits 3 handed as far as I'm concerned, and so are 22% draws. You ARE GOING to see aggression and you aren't going to get free cards very much.
You said it yourself - you call this hand every time, but you don't know how to handle aggression if you pull a draw, and with suited connecters you're basically counting on a draw, in a situation where a guy is never going to let you draw. You find the first decision easy, but it's not actually discrete.
Then you have the guy with less then a blind adding value to a fold, and you have the read-value of a guy betting hard when he's borderline assured to move up money in one hand...
meh...
how did it work out?
Posted Tue May 16, 2006 7:31 am GMT by cayouche
Definitely call preflop. I would've done the same.
Flop, I would fold. I know I can beat the guy heads-up, so I let Player C die next hand (assuming he does).
Posted Tue May 16, 2006 7:50 am GMT by UrAteUp
Easy fold here. Under different circumstances I could see the call but not with your tournament life on the line and villian C will be all-in next hand.
Posted Tue May 16, 2006 8:34 am GMT by JohnnyCache
I think a bad fold is less costly then a bad call
You are almost certainly dead to your draw here...making you what...35%?
Don't call dave!
Posted Tue May 16, 2006 10:07 am GMT by golddog
I don't agree with the pre-flop call. I think this is a time when variables in addition to pot odds dictate your actions.
Getting in a pissing match with a roughly equal stack when you have 3rd place all but eliminated doesn't seem very desirable. Fold, and you're heads-up pretty equal soon enough. Maybe a raise here to try to steal, or force out the stealer?
Seems like one of those hands Harrington's on about--don't put yourself in a position to have a hard decision after the flop.
Anyway, let's leave that aside; the call was made. I'm in the easy fold camp. Drawing to eight cards for essentially your tournament, and you've lost the near-certainty of second-place money, right?
Posted Tue May 16, 2006 12:46 pm GMT by Dave B
I called, right or wrong, here is what went through my head (and yes, I didnt use ALL my time before calling):
I have at least 8 outs, all give me the nuts, I might have 6 more if my cards are still live, which I doubt that they are. So, I am 34% to win. Lets run some number (yes, I actually did this)
1) I call (win, 19k to 800 chip lead; lose 17.4k, 2k, 600) :
35% of the time I win the tournament 90% of the time =.35*.9*150
65% of the time have a 25% chance to win =.65*.25*150
65% of the time I have a 75% chance for 2nd =.65*.75*90
Expected value given assumptions=$115.50
2) I fold:
95% of the time I finish in the top 2, I now am down 12k to 8k, so I win 40% so:
roughly 60% I win 90 =.6*90
2nd is 40%=.4*150
Expected value=$114
Now, I didnt do the actual calculations, but I figured I was even money given my assumptions. If you add in the chance that he doesnt have an Ace, 7, or overpair, and add my chances to go runner runner pair, PLUS the fact that I dont have to spend another 5-10 minutes of heads up, I decided to call.
One can agrue whether it is right or wrong. You can also say that I am not going to finish 2nd 75% of the time w/ stacks of 17400, 2000, 600 or that I might win more than 40% heads up w/ 12000/8000 stacks from behind.
I just thought it was an interesting analysis. I was suprised to see that my odds were do good when clearly behind from a "big picture" prespective. I am in no way comparing myself to Gus Hanson, but the only way to justify some of his calls is to look at decisions this way.
Now please destroy my logic.
Posted Tue May 16, 2006 1:44 pm GMT by UrAteUp
Dave you made the call and gave your reasons. Far be it from me to tear apart your logic. I am just curious as to the outcome of this hand. Don't wait to long to give us the outcome.
As far as your logic, I was running the numbers. I came up with the same 8 outs provided none of them help the villian. We know there are 43 cards left in the deck. Provided villian b (short stack) did not burn any cards you needed, you have 8/43 (1:5 odds, 20% chance) cards to catch the nuts. Personally I do not like to put my tournament life on the line given these types of odds.
Your expected value calculations look good and based on those I can understand your justification for making this call. My only complaint is I just don't like putting my tournament life on the line with only a 20% chance of hitting my hand.
Which brings a question to mind...Have you been watching Arron Kanter again?.... 
However like I said, you were there to play the hand and had delt with these players. If you felt comfortable making the call then I hope it worked out for the best. If not...better luck next time.
Posted Tue May 16, 2006 1:59 pm GMT by Dave B
8 outs is 35%, rough math is 8 outs times 2% times 2 cards to come or 32%. My runner runner odds give me 35% assuming I am not against a set.
Posted Tue May 16, 2006 3:35 pm GMT by golddog
Nope, no destruction from me. I have to say I'm quite surprised by those numbers as well. As you say, there might be some argument with the inputs, but I can't see any with the process.
I don't feel that any of the numbers you put out there are way out of whack. 25% winning 17.4K to 2K might be a bit high, but you knew if you could play these guys.
Shouldn't there be some amount in there for finishing third in the 65% of call/lose though?
Not enough to skew the numbers greatly, I imagine. I gave a 10% chance of third, reducing each of the others by 5% and came up with a 111.6 expectation.
Certainly not the difference I would've expected. Thanks for the interesting post.
Posted Tue May 16, 2006 7:31 pm GMT by JohnnyCache
meh, your logic is OK but waiting one hand to get into with the guy had a positive EV as well.
Posted Tue May 16, 2006 8:10 pm GMT by JohnnyCache
| UrAteUp wrote: |
As far as your logic, I was running the numbers. I came up with the same 8 outs provided none of them help the villian. We know there are 43 cards left in the deck. Provided villian b (short stack) did not burn any cards you needed, you have 8/43 (1:5 odds, 20% chance) cards to catch the nuts. Personally I do not like to put my tournament life on the line given these types of odds. |
You don't figure dead blanks into an outs calculation unless you know what they are. Treat folded and burned cards like they are still in the deck unless you are VERY sure what they were or you'll get bad odds.
Posted Wed May 17, 2006 7:58 am GMT by UrAteUp
Dave...you going to fill us in on how this turned out? This is just the sort of ballsy badass play I read about you making...and then winning with it.. . If I tried a play like this I would be out of the tournament in 3rd....
Posted Wed May 17, 2006 9:16 am GMT by Dave B
Turn 3 river 5, I win.
1st hand of heads up I called w/ some J6 garbage and took out the shortie.
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