oos + flush draw after the flop |
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Posted Thu May 18, 2006 4:28 am GMT by ki_cz
Let's say I have q  j and the flop hits:
10 k 2 
What are my chances of hitting either a straight or a flush on the turn/river? I think an oos draw is 33%? Not sure about the flush though. Do I push in this situation?
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Posted Thu May 18, 2006 8:13 am GMT by BeerWench13
| ki_cz wrote: | | Do I push in this situation? |
It depends. Cash game or tournament play? What are the stack sizes? How many players are in the hand? What's your position? What action has come before your turn to act?
Posted Thu May 18, 2006 8:28 am GMT by MJJ
You have 15 outs- 9 for the flush + 6 for the str8 (don't double count 9 or K - you already counted them as flush outs)
Easiest estimate of odds says to go X2 w/ 1 card to come, or X4 with 2 cards to come.
So, by this method: 15 outs x 4 = 60% to hit with 2 cards to come.
Posted Thu May 18, 2006 11:36 am GMT by tame_deuces
It is a much much more complex situation than push/not push (as stated allready above).
The general ideas are very easy:
The shorter the stacks are compared to the pot, the more you want to get your money in on the flop.
The higher the chance of your opponent folding a better hand/making a mistake in folding, the more you want to raise.
The higher the chance of a flop having missed your opponent but still leaving him with a better hand, the more you want to raise.
Now..combining these three ideas into what is the best play in a given situation...now THAT is the tricky part.
Posted Fri May 19, 2006 1:32 am GMT by ki_cz
Yeah, sorry, I realize how stupid the last part of that question is now, it just seemed like good filler. Is there anybody out there that would push in this situation at beginning/mid sng play? Or is this a play that I should push only later on? What about if I'm the shortstacked player? I apologize in advance if these questions are too vague.
Posted Fri May 19, 2006 1:45 am GMT by supafrey
Push with these any and all of the time.
Push.
PUSH.
don't listen to them.
Posted Fri May 19, 2006 6:08 am GMT by zinn0
Agree with supa. Push. Everytime.
Posted Fri May 19, 2006 8:48 am GMT by tame_deuces
So pot size, stacksize, flop texture, fold equity, actions taken so far or number of opponents in the hand should not matter for our decision to push?
Posted Fri May 19, 2006 11:36 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Push the majority of the time I would say. Your actual chances of hitting a straight or flush is 54.1%. And the A or 9 give you the absolute nuts, which is even cooler. 
Posted Fri May 19, 2006 12:01 pm GMT by supafrey
| tame_deuces wrote: | | So pot size, stacksize, flop texture, fold equity, actions taken so far or number of opponents in the hand should not matter for our decision to push? |
nope. exceptions don't change the rule.
Posted Tue May 23, 2006 1:06 pm GMT by ki_cz
So I had the opportunity to somewhat put our theories into play here today. Not quite the same situation, but similar:
Dealt: A  Q
playing .10 - .25 NL table. Raise to 1.75, get 1 caller.
Flop comes: K Q 10
I personally like the look of the flop, a jack, queen, ace or diamond has me in pretty good shape.
There's now ~3.50 in the pot, villain puts out a ~1.50 bet, I don't really think twice (he'd played some pretty rank hands in the past), and raise to ~4.50 putting myself all-in.
Turn comes, 2  , river 8
I lose the hand. But not to something like, q10, ak, qq, kk, k10, anything like that. But a really really sweet 10 8 .
It was very very disheartening, but I think I'll win a lot more of these than I'll lose.
Posted Thu Jun 01, 2006 7:28 am GMT by lwestatbus
My site, and a couple of casinos where I've played have considerable Royal Flush bonuses. If I've got a chance at a RF I don't push for a couple of reasons:
1. If I make the RF (approx 4% by OP example) I will make $500 at the Seminole Hard Rock in Hollywood. So seeing my hand to river is worth $20 at the flop, probably more than I'll add to the pot by pushing here.
2. If I make either of my hands they are very, very strong so I don't have a real need to push out somebody with a middle pocket pair.
In the absence of a RF bonus I agree with the other posters. But check into this for your site/casino.
Posted Thu Jun 01, 2006 9:36 am GMT by BeerWench13
| lwestatbus wrote: | | If I make either of my hands they are very, very strong so I don't have a real need to push out somebody with a middle pocket pair. |
This was the main reason I asked the questions. If I hit a huge hand like this, I want to extract as much from my opponent as possible. PUSH PUSH PUSH may not allow me to do so. JMO.
Posted Sun Jun 04, 2006 1:18 am GMT by tame_deuces
Well, always trying to push the flop with a strong draw as some sort of general rule is stupid, I don't care what anyone says in this thread, because it is.
But not shutting out medium hands is a bad idea.
If you think your opponent got some kind of medium strength hand (the typical would be a situation where your opponent most likely has two overcards) it is actually better to raise/be aggressive with a draw because he won't pay you off much if you hit anyway (imagine yourself with a pair of nines or two overs and the third of a str8 or flush hits, how much do you pay off?)
If you think he has great strength then he might pay you off handsomely if you hit, so calling may be a great tactic.
On top of this you always have the stack/pot ratio...with short stacks you always want to see both the next cards and not be shut out of the pot on the turn. With deep stacks the implied odds of hitting increases.
In short, if a pokerplayer always tries to get his stack in the middle with strong draws he is leaving alot of money on the tables, and imho it sounds like a tactic for playing scared poker but we disguise the weakness with aggression.
Posted Wed Jun 07, 2006 11:00 am GMT by lwestatbus
Don't forget, also, that if you push on the flop using the OP example you can't have made either a straight or flush yet. A consideration now is what your opponents have had a chance to observe about you or how good they are themselves, and what they will think of the situation when you make your hand.
If you push the flop you are most likely to be put on TP, two pair, or a set. Then if you make your hand they are less likely to put you on the made hand and more likely to think their hand is good, or at least worth calling down with. Or if you're really lucky they may even try to bluff you. Contrast that with calling down and then springing to life when 3-to-the-flush hits or a pretty obvious straight possibility shows up.
One of the notes I've started adding to my player notes collection is whether or not a player will bet/raise the flop on a draw. This has paid off for me a couple of times.
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