Posted Sat May 20, 2006 11:02 am GMT by Johny
I'm new at the table so no reads, plus the fact I'm multi-tabling. I'm getting around 3-1, but he'splayed the hand oddly so far. What do you put him on?
PokerStars Game #4995051706: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2006/05/20 - 11:46:04 (ET)
Table 'Roma II' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: kazar ($18.50 in chips)
Seat 3: Johny4455 ($48.50 in chips)
Seat 4: kendawg420 ($5.50 in chips)
Seat 5: MeanTech ($36.10 in chips)
Seat 7: DM1108 ($48.45 in chips)
Seat 9: XmrDave ($60.05 in chips)
kendawg420: posts small blind $0.25
MeanTech: posts big blind $0.50
darkstar1: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Johny4455 A  K
DM1108: folds
XmrDave: folds
kazar: folds
Johny4455: raises $1 to $1.50kendawg420: folds
MeanTech: raises $1 to $2.50
Johny4455: raises $7.50 to $10
MeanTech: raises $7.50 to $17.50
Johny4455: ?
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Posted Sat May 20, 2006 12:02 pm GMT by Tadzio
Either call and hope for a flush or fold and save some grief (I'd fold). I'm guessing he's multi-tabling too, and picked up AA. Either that or he's getting a blow-job while he's playing... and he has AA. Without a read you can't really be certain, but persistant min-raising from a shorty-stack pre-flop usually means a very strong hand.
Posted Sat May 20, 2006 12:32 pm GMT by JohnnyCache
I'm thinking he's got a medium pair - 10s through Qs - because he has to be looking at something big enough that he's got the stones to re-raise and to think about doubling through...but I don't think you should raise him as it seems like he's trying to pump you.
You could flop it and sweat him, but he's going to bet the flop. He's probably going to bet half the pot on the flop.
I would say on the numbers you call your 3:1 here - you're deep in the hand already and you might as well look at the flop with a healthy flop.
I think you need a pair with a draw or better then a pair to turn this hand. If you worry about your own ability to lay down AK you might want to get off it because I'm not a king or an ace on the flop is going to let you pass him.
Posted Sat May 20, 2006 12:48 pm GMT by Tadzio
| JohnnyCache wrote: | | He's probably going to bet half the pot on the flop. |
He'll be pushing on the flop with whatever he has. Nearly half his stack is in the pot after that re-raise to 17.50
Posted Sat May 20, 2006 12:57 pm GMT by JohnnyCache
nah, he wants to double, he's going to underbet and raise a raise
I agree he wants it all in the middle, though.
Posted Sat May 20, 2006 2:32 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
I'd wanna see all 5 cards. Just push it in now.
Posted Sat May 20, 2006 5:38 pm GMT by Geno
All-in.
Posted Tue May 23, 2006 8:17 pm GMT by Johny
I ended up folding here, I put him on AA or KK. Usually when someone does this at lower limits it means a poorly played (imo) AA, KK or AK. I really thought my best hope was to be against AK. I didn't see him doing this with a weaker ace or smaller pocket pair. I only had $10 invested and didn't want to gamble a buy-in on a coin-flip. He showed A  K .
Is my thinking flawed?
Posted Tue May 23, 2006 11:24 pm GMT by tame_deuces
AKo,AKs,QQ and JJ are NL hands where knowing your man helps alot more than general guidelines. That being said I'm sure alot of people fold those hands more than what is good for them.
I'd suggest downloading pokerstove and fiddle around with handranges and try to apply these to the different persons you'll face at the tables.
Posted Tue May 23, 2006 11:58 pm GMT by kainARGH
I'm sorry but im agreeing with the all in's at this point. The unfortunate part about AK is if your opponent is smart - you can't just take a flop if they have a PP. If there are no aces or kings - or queens on the flop they are betting big - your only advantage - as the none PP hand is to see all 5 cards. seeing 3 just lets your opponent charge you per card VS you paying a flat rate for all 5 cards.
pot odds here,
at this point you put in
10$ with 38$ left
he put in
17$ with roughly 20$ left.
27$ pot
so it will cost you 20$ to win 47$ 2.35 to 1 on your money to make this call. Even if he has KK your still 33% to win - your still profiting from this call but only marginally. but if he doesn't have AA or KK your getting really great pot odds.
I push
EV vs KK + $2.11
EV vs QQ-22 + $10.82
Posted Wed May 24, 2006 12:20 pm GMT by shorn7
I'm with kain here. Due to the amount in the pot now and the remaining stack sizes, I think you have to push here and see all five. The only hand you are completely dead to is AA (87/12 dog). If you both had deep stacks, the decision is much more cloudy. But you can't call since he will likely push the flop no matter what comes and your hand is too powerful to fold.
Get it in there now and hope he has KK or QQ and no diamonds.
Posted Wed May 24, 2006 1:25 pm GMT by UrAteUp
| Tadzio wrote: | | I'm guessing he's multi-tabling too, and picked up AA. Either that or he's getting a blow-job while he's playing.. |
 ...this has got to be the best post I seen in a long time...priceless...simply priceless...
Posted Mon May 29, 2006 1:33 am GMT by AHBrownell
Call me weird, but I don't like your re reraise. I know aggressive is great! BUT you must remember that hands like AK are drawing hands. I would rather trap a player with QQ or AQ then have to fold AK to AA pissed off. AND if you miss the flop you are done.
I woulda called the 2.50. Then if I hit an A or K on the flop I would call to the river.
This is a situation where I recommend slowing down and playing carefully.
How many hands reraise? Not many. See a cheap flop.
Posted Mon May 29, 2006 3:17 pm GMT by 72o
I completeley agree with AHBrownell. Your mistake was to insanely reraise the bet to $10 and now you are scared by your own bet.
At the beginning you bet three times the BB wich is a weak bet compared to your hand. Four times the BB would have been appropriate. Your opponent then raised you to five times the BB which is a reasonable bet for a strong hand like JJ or higher. That means your chances are a coin flip at best. And if your opponent holds AA or KK you are in serious trouble.
Posted Mon May 29, 2006 7:11 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
| AHBrownell wrote: | | Call me weird, but I don't like your re reraise. I know aggressive is great! BUT you must remember that hands like AK are drawing hands. |
No. No no no no no. Punish punish punish!!! "Drawing hand" label is absolutely irrelevant; how many times do we have to go over this?
Given that the villain is OOP, I really like the big re-raise to take command of the hand. If we just call and miss hearts, an A, or a K, we could get bet out of the pot. Calling would have been fine also, but I prefer a re-raise in this situation.
Given the action, I think the correct move is to bet all-in. I know lots of people min-raise once with AA or KK, but they will usually just shove all their chips in if they get raised back. The second min-raise smells like weakness to me, so I would push.
Also Johny, I see a lot of lower limit folks min-reraise with QQ and JJ too. Like I said, too, most players do not min-raise twice with AA or KK. Their natural instinct to shove in all their chips usually takes over, or they just call, hoping to c/r all-in on the flop.
Posted Mon May 29, 2006 7:37 pm GMT by Johny
You're Diamond. My biggest problem is giving my opponents too much credit in cash games.
Posted Fri Dec 01, 2006 1:46 pm GMT by spaghetti
| Quote: | | Even if he has KK your still 33% to win |
I would love to know where Kain gets his numbers from. If the opponent has KK your probability of winning the hand is actually ~ 0.27 (I can show you how this is arrived at if you like).
67*0.27 = 18.09 so in this case the pot odds are not favorable.
If the opponent has a lower pp then the probability of winning the had goes up to ~ 0.317. 67*0.317 = 21.24 so in this case the pot odds are marginally to the good.
The point I am making here is that you are not going to make much by pushing in this situation.
Posted Fri Dec 01, 2006 1:49 pm GMT by shorn7
What Kain means is that AK is only a 70/30 dog to KK When you get to see all 5 cards. So, the only hand you are really dead to is AA.
Due to the size of the pot and the remaining stacks, I think pushing is the only play here.
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