Posted Sun May 21, 2006 7:15 pm GMT by Ciso_B
Okay, me and my friend have disagree on the following situation and thought it would be good to ask u lot, whether u think the move is +ev or -ev.
Satelite, 88 runners left, you are in 83rd place with 1,100 chips, blinds ar 50/100 , top 11 people get through from this satelite.
Big stack limped utg, then theres a pass, and you find A  J , and push all in for your 1100 chips, blinds are goin to be 150 soon with you in the big blind.
Do you think this is a good or bad move. Its a satelite remember not a normal mtt.
Did you know that participating in a poker forum can help you improve your own game? Be it by sharing experiences or simply asking for help, participation in a forum helps you focus and keep 'on topic' which will help you improve your game. You can learn from other players feedback and from their experiences. Why the THP poker forums? We offer one of the best managed texas holdem poker forums available, and the community within is far more friendly than those typicaly found on other sites. We've made a 'lurkers edition' of the poker forum available here on Holdem Poker Online, but we encourage all visitors to register and join in on the conversations on TexasHoldem-Poker.com
Posted Sun May 21, 2006 10:32 pm GMT by LeafsFan1122
+EV. Now is your oppourtunity. You barely have 10 BB left, there is no other move here other than push, especially with the increasing blinds soon. This move seems appropriate for a typical MTT as well but even more so for satelite considering that only 11 players get a seat. It's go big or go home.
Posted Mon May 22, 2006 1:08 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Easy push IMO. Big stack can limp with a lot of hands under the gun, so that's just extra dead money in the pot. With an M less than 10 in a satellite tournament, I'm going to take some chances to get back into the hunt.
Posted Mon May 22, 2006 9:13 am GMT by kompis
i wouldnt push here, 10 X the BB enough to stick it out and try to get a hand. With the whole table to act behind you , u basically praying nobody calls, if you get called it is more than likely you will be crushed; big stack limps utg then sum1 else pushes all in... im not calling you here unless i have JJ or better. I don't hate the move but in a satelitte such as that i would not be so hasty, i would probably call it and try to hit a flop, try to survive a bit longer at least until i have position. 10 X the big blind isnt much but it still is enough to make people fold when you do decide to raise all in. i like this move with AK but AJ might as well be A9 in this spot.
- ev
Posted Mon May 22, 2006 9:45 am GMT by Dat_Dude
| kompis wrote: | | i wouldnt push here, 10 X the BB enough to stick it out and try to get a hand. With the whole table to act behind you , u basically praying nobody calls, if you get called it is more than likely you will be crushed; |
I disagree with this statement. Many good players will recognize that Hero's M is getting low and needs to make a move. Many players will make this move with medium-to-low pocket pairs and darn near any Ace. Getting called by someone with AT or even KQ suited isn't out of the question.
EV+
Posted Mon May 22, 2006 9:58 am GMT by UrAteUp
+ all the way. I agree with Dat here. Lesser hands will call and hope for the flop to be in their favor. Push here has to be a plus.
Posted Mon May 22, 2006 10:01 am GMT by kompis
well if i was vying for a seat i would not take such a high risk move, far too easy for one of the 7 other players left to act to have a far stronger hand. Very hopeful and fortunate if you get called by A10 or KQ, and if a small pp takes a shot you are still behind
Posted Mon May 22, 2006 10:06 am GMT by Dat_Dude
| kompis wrote: | | well if i was vying for a seat i would not take such a high risk move, far too easy for one of the 7 other players left to act to have a far stronger hand. Very hopeful and fortunate if you get called by A10 or KQ, and if a small pp takes a shot you are still behind |
See, you are assuming that from now and the number of orbits it will take to diminish your stack that you will get a better hand than AJs. Also it is assuming that IF and WHEN you get this stronger hand, that someone will call you. If you sit around and fold every hand, nobody is going to call you when you get all your chips in.
Posted Mon May 22, 2006 10:21 am GMT by kompis
| Quote: | | See, you are assuming that from now and the number of orbits it will take to diminish your stack that you will get a better hand than AJs. |
Not true, i am assuming there will be more favourable situations, like x x from the button with no limpers - i will push and likely pick up the blinds. So long as i was able to take down a the blinds once every orbit .... and if i get called on one of these steals i always have the chance to double thru.....i could survive until a big hand came along, and with any luck i would get some action. Survival is key in these satelites i will happily scrape along with an M of 5 avoiding high risk situations and quietly sneak into the seats.
| Quote: | | If you sit around and fold every hand, nobody is going to call you when you get all your chips in. |
I agree totally, which is why i would push in position with very marginal hands but the chance of getting called with that AJ is just too high for my liking, and i never want to get called when im holding AJ...... unless i luck out and get called by A10
If i was ciso and i had only 500 chips left,..... then i would stick it in with AJ but 1.1k is enough of a stack to play a bit more, you are not that desperate
Posted Mon May 22, 2006 10:27 am GMT by Dat_Dude
| kompis wrote: | | Quote: | | See, you are assuming that from now and the number of orbits it will take to diminish your stack that you will get a better hand than AJs. |
Not true, i am assuming there will be more favourable situations, like x x from the button with no limpers - i will push and likely pick up the blinds. So long as i was able to take down a the blinds once every orbit .... and if i get called on one of these steals i always have the chance to double thru.....i could survive until a big hand came along, and with any luck i would get some action.
| Quote: | | If you sit around and fold every hand, nobody is going to call you when you get all your chips in. |
I agree totally, which is why i would push in position with very marginal hands but the chance of getting called with that AJ is just too high for my liking, and i never want to get called when im holding AJ...... unless i luck out and get called by A10
If i was ciso and i had only 500 chips left,..... then i would stick it in with AJ but 1.1k is enough of a stack to play a bit more, you are not that desperate |
All valid points. I guess since the question is whether it is +EV, or -EV, I think you find a hard time arguing that it is -EV. Even if you get called, you are likely a favorite, a coin flip, or a slight underdog. You are at most a 3:1 dog unless we are facing QQ or higher, which makes this a +EV situation, IMO.
Posted Mon May 22, 2006 10:35 am GMT by UrAteUp
The question isn't weather you like doing this all-in move pre-flop with AJ...the question is does this move have a + or - expected value. This would deffinately be a +EV.
Posted Mon May 22, 2006 10:35 am GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| kompis wrote: | | Not true, i am assuming there will be more favourable situations, like x x from the button with no limpers - i will push and likely pick up the blinds. |
I'd rather push with position as well, but you have two problems with that:
1) You're relying on it folding around to you so that you can push with less.
2) You're losing 1.5BB waiting for position, and with the blinds increasing very soon, you may not have any fold equity at all.
I'd be inclined to throw it in now, because the big stack limping probably helps you in this case. You are much more likely to get the rest of the table to fold since they might be less than thrilled in getting involved in a 3-way pot with someone who can bust them. If UTG (or someone else) actually has a big hand, then so be it, but this is your best opportunity to pick up 2.5BB.
Posted Mon May 22, 2006 10:49 am GMT by Ciso_B
also, you are way overexagerating how often someone behind me has me completely crushes kompis, its not all that often someone will have me crushed.....and id feel ill, if i folded and it got folded around, i think its +ev too.
Posted Mon May 22, 2006 12:25 pm GMT by kompis
hmmm yes you lot make a good point, i would have to agree that the fold equity is high enough and the chance u are crushed low enough to make it +ev. I mean i dont think it is very high value move, the +evness of this move isnt great imo. If you are ss and want a double through there are far better hands to do it with, and if you are stealing there are far better positions. +ev is not the only consideration in a satellite mtt such as this, its +ev to have 22 vs AK all in preflop but i would shy away from this in a satelittle too. I begrudgingly conceed that this move is +EV but imho not a good move in the circumstances.
Posted Mon May 22, 2006 3:35 pm GMT by Skribbles
Push. Push. Push.
Posted Tue May 23, 2006 10:22 am GMT by shorn7
No question this is the correct move and +EV. AJs is a top 10% hand (according to Harrington) and you have a low M. If you are called by a better hand, then so be it. There is really only one hand that has you absolutely crushed here and that is AA. Even to KK you are only a 70/30 dog (ignoring suits).
I agree that it would be much better to at least be in MP to do this, but time is short and you need to move.
Posted Wed May 24, 2006 4:48 pm GMT by foldhappy
Easy push. Easily +EV. Suitedness buys you outs against domination. I don't know how anybody can wait here.....so what if a couple orbits go by and then you pick up JJ or higher? By that time you've got 500-600 chips left which means:
A) you can double back up to where you were.....how exciting
B) you'll get multiple callers because your stack is so small and now your big hand has to survive against more opponents. You might even win the hand but watch a huge sidepot go to someone else and you'll wish you hadn't waited so long.
|
|
