SUPA ARTICLE: When to quit for the day and the "long te |
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Posted Thu May 25, 2006 11:24 am GMT by supafrey
Again, this is just a copy and paste job from today's blog. http://www.xanga.com/supafrey for the rest. Enjoy...
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PAVEL'S POKER TIPS.
1. It's not rigged.
2. You are stupid, stupid.
3. Who are you playing for?
4. The fundamental flaw of poker theory.
5. BANKROLLS AND WITHDRAWALS AND PSYCHOLOGY, OH MY!!!
6. Bankrolls and basic psychology returns: "The long term".
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As a continuation of my previous article, I thought that I'd touch a little bit on the idea of the "long term". As most poker players quickly realize, it takes quite a while for us to truly figure out all of the ins and outs of the game. Too many times on poker forums and chat rooms have I seen people bragging about their quick flareups - the newbie player that deposits a hundred into a site, sees it quickly skyrocket, then cries foul when they suddenly find themselves broke. I roll my eyes every time.
As the more math-y types could attest to, it takes a good deal of time for a statistical average to work its way out. In the wonderful world of gambling, short term variance (shifts up and down) can be mind-blowing at times. Unfortunately (or fortunately, for the solid, long term winner) these short term rollercoasters rarely tell us what kind of a player we really are. Only in the "long term" do we really find out how good of a player we really are.......
What's the long term? Well, to be honest, I wish I could tell you. I've played several hundreds of thousands of hands, and comfortably say that I'm a winning player. Others have played millions and are still unsure as to what their regular "win rate" should be. For statistical programs like Pokertracker, they recommend a solid 20,000 hands before coming to any conclusions about your numbers.... That's alot of hands for the average player, but it's not uncommon to find variance showing skewed numbers for up to 100,000 hands.
This is all fascinating, I'm sure, but what does this mean for you?
To begin, one needs to wrap his head around how meaningless a single session or day really is in the grand scheme of things. I realize I may be attacking my point sideways, but I'm trying to convey just how "long" a poker player's career often is. With my example from article 5 about how I've funnily enough lost a grand in the past few weeks, it would be far too simple for me to say that "I wish I could have quit when I was ahead the most"... But this is flawed logic. As a winning player, every moment I spend at the table brings with it a positive expectation for the session. While I could lose a good deal of money at one sitting, if it's a profitable situation in the "long term", then my day-to-day highs and lows are irrelevant. I should NOT have quit playing when I was at my all-time high because then I would be passing on opportunities where I have the advantage, and where I "most likely"
will be seeing a profit.
Got that part? Okay, then lets talk about stop losses and good versus bad situations.
A good related point to all this long term ranting is the average session's stop loss scenario. A stop loss is usually a financial mark at which a player sets their daily limit - a sort of mercy rule that says if they lose or gain X amount of money for the day that their poker would stop and they'd take a breather. While this is not necessarily a bad idea for a whole host of psychological reasons (some people never know when to say die if they're losing, and if you're one of those people I'd definitely consider a stop loss for losing money in a day, but be reasonable and don't lie to yourself) it definitely stops you from maximizing your profits.
The error in thinking here is putting the daily session high on a pedestal instead of considering the long term benefits or costs of our actions. While the daily sums seem to work nice and tidy for our puny little earthling brains, a good poker player must remember that each day is just a tiny drop in an infinitely deeper well of our poker careers. Worrying about "losing today's profits" should NEVER cross our minds - instead, consider stopping your daily play only when the situation that you're in no longer becomes profitable for you.
A good example would be a simple 100nl table. Lets say I've been playing for a couple of hours, and have gotten a bit lucky. The table is surprisingly weak and passive, and I've been running it over to a tune of $500 smackeroos. Many players in my situation would be content to take their roll and leave the table, remembering how many times they've later scolded themselves for not "leaving while they were up". This is completely and totally wrong.
A better question to ask yourself in deciding whether to stand up for the night is simply: "Has the scenario changed? Has this previously profitable situation suddenly become a worse one? Is that why I should leave?" If the table is comprised of the same weak players that I've been beating up on for hours, why would I leave? Not only have I shown that I'm clearly the pitcher in our card-playing relationship (if the table was prison and my opponents were my bitches, I mean) but now I've ALSO got a big stack to control the table with AND my opponents are most likely steaming from my good fortune. Instead of leaving, why not stay and exponentially grow my profits? If you've ever seen the players that seem to have a stack with 6-10 buyins in front of them, this is why they're there. While a few of those are just lucksacks, the rest of them have spotted a significantly weaker situation than normal and are capitalizing on it. While they could leave the table with their meager profits, they would be giving up on a situation that is more profitable than most.
WHY WOULD WE WANT TO LEAVE THAT?!
Now, before I get accused of giving you bad advice, I must restate that this is ONLY if the situation has not changed significantly. Some reasons still exist for us to pack up, and this is a decision that you have to weigh carefully... For example:
Are we tired? A long session could have us drained and sleep is always a good call.
Are we going to play worse with a big stack, now that money seems meaningless?
Are the other players "catching on" to our style, thus making our old plays useless?
Have all the bad players gone bust? I know this one seems simple, but it's often hard for us to leave a table because our valour takes control over our better judgement. AVOID GOOD PLAYERS. On a related note, is the table suddenly full of strong, capable players?
Are we feeling impatient? Drunk? Giddy? Overly emotional?
There's a million other reasons that could come up, I assure you, but I promise that if you atleast take the time to consider the multiple variables, you'll be finding yourself in profitable situations for a good deal of time longer. Don't be afraid to "lose your daily profits", and don't scold yourself for staying in obviously profitable situations just because you happened to get the shit end of the luck stick. Consider your advantages (the big stack, your reputation, the prevalent newbs) and weigh them against your disadvantages (emotions, sleep) and make your decision based off of that alone. The long term is, indeed, kinda long. Those big nights sure do help, though.
Later days.
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Posted Fri May 26, 2006 6:18 pm GMT by supafrey
no thoughts? 
fine. i'll save em.
Posted Fri May 26, 2006 6:34 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Methinks probably the players who would benefit the most from this argument are not the type who are motivated to read a long post. 
Good article though Supa; I've been trying to convince my roommate to break his "as soon as I hit $X, I'm cashing out so I make sure I'm ahead" mentality at the casino.
Posted Fri May 26, 2006 7:00 pm GMT by Phil14312
I read it twice now, but frankly, bankrolls aren't my problem. Nice post, I read the original on your blog. But, like diamond said, the players that are going get the most out of this won't go more than a paragraph in.
Posted Fri May 26, 2006 7:36 pm GMT by cooler 32
I liked them supa. Keep 'em coming.
Posted Fri May 26, 2006 8:36 pm GMT by supafrey
interesting point. I need a publishing deal.
That was all I planned on touching on bankroll, so the next ones will be different, i promise.
Okay I'll try one more soon.
Posted Sat May 27, 2006 5:55 am GMT by tame_deuces
| supafrey wrote: |
Are we going to play worse with a big stack, now that money seems meaningless?. |
I like this one, a trap I have fallen into on many occasions myself and which I constantly have to remind myself to avoid.
(Not saying that I'm this super pokerplayer who always wins alot, I'm just saying I tend to get sloppy when I do).
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