Posted Fri May 26, 2006 10:21 am GMT by Cricket_Fire
PokerStars Game #5057257952: Tournament #25397728, 10000+325 Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2006/05/26 - 11:10:21 (ET)
Table '25397728 2' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: metrodawg (5445 in chips)
Seat 2: edkess (3910 in chips)
Seat 3: SHARK SEAN (1135 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 4: shammieAA (1185 in chips)
Seat 7: Cricket_Fire (2670 in chips)
Seat 8: Sigmo (1600 in chips)
Seat 9: pokerpare (1595 in chips)
shammieAA: posts small blind 25
Cricket_Fire: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Cricket_Fire  
Sigmo: calls 50
pokerpare: folds
metrodawg: calls 50
edkess: folds
SHARK SEAN: folds
shammieAA: calls 25
Cricket_Fire: checks
*** FLOP ***   
shammieAA: checks
Cricket_Fire: checks
SHARK SEAN has returned
Sigmo: checks
metrodawg: bets 200
shammieAA: folds
Cricket_Fire: calls 200
Did I do the math right to make this all? $200 already in the pot, he bets $200.
Pot odds are 2-1, or 1/3, so ~33%.
Odds of making my hand are Gutshot + Flush Draw = 4+8 = 12 outs
12x4 = 48%
So, I need to call 33% of the pot, and will win 48% of the time. Is this right?
Thanks
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Posted Fri May 26, 2006 12:02 pm GMT by Icec0o1
multiplying by 4 includes turn + river.
The chance of you hitting the flush/inside straight draw on the turn is 1/5 + 1/12 =~ 1/4.5 or 23% or 12 outs * 2.
So the odds are not in your favor to call unless you believe that your implied odds are large enough.
Posted Fri May 26, 2006 12:08 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| Icec0o1 wrote: | | So the odds are not in your favor to call unless you believe that your implied odds are large enough. |
Or if you're 100% sure you won't have to call a turn bet.
Actually, that would be kind of interesting: an EV calculation that combined implied odds and the probability of facing a bet on the turn. The size of the that bet would be the hard thing to estimate, though.
Posted Fri May 26, 2006 6:14 pm GMT by Cricket_Fire
Ah, never thought of that 8)
Thanks for the clear up
P.S. I called & made my flush 
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