Posted Sun May 28, 2006 10:08 am GMT by wizzwizz
This is from a final table of a 3$ MTT on stars. Busted 8th on this hand. I'm not questioning the play but I have a question about the odds in the long run.
PokerStars Game #5074746235: Tournament #25061178, $3.00+$0.30 Hold'em No Limit - Level XXI (15000/30000) - 2006/05/28 - 00:43:56
(ET)
Table '25061178 134' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: StJock (165580 in chips)
Seat 3: kodiemitzi05 (237900 in chips)
Seat 4: namebrand (224044 in chips)
Seat 5: xjocamelx (429146 in chips)
Seat 6: tallmantim (484650 in chips)
Seat 7: hackmeballs (276624 in chips)
Seat 8: wizzwizz (151176 in chips)
Seat 9: jbatesball (204380 in chips)
StJock: posts the ante 1500
kodiemitzi05: posts the ante 1500
namebrand: posts the ante 1500
xjocamelx: posts the ante 1500
tallmantim: posts the ante 1500
hackmeballs: posts the ante 1500
wizzwizz: posts the ante 1500
jbatesball: posts the ante 1500
wizzwizz: posts small blind 15000
jbatesball: posts big blind 30000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to wizzwizz  
StJock: folds
kodiemitzi05: folds
namebrand: folds
xjocamelx: folds
tallmantim: folds
hackmeballs: raises 70000 to 100000
wizzwizz: raises 49676 to 149676 and is all-in
jbatesball: folds
hackmeballs: calls 49676
*** FLOP ***   
*** TURN *** 
*** RIVER *** 
*** SHOW DOWN ***
wizzwizz: shows (high card Ace)
hackmeballs: shows   (a pair of Queens)
StJock said, "gg"
hackmeballs said, "gg"
hackmeballs collected 341352 from pot
jbatesball said, "GG"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 341352 | Rake 0
Board
Seat 1: StJock folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: kodiemitzi05 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: namebrand folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: xjocamelx folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: tallmantim folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: hackmeballs (button) showed and won (341352) with a pair of Queens
Seat 8: wizzwizz (small blind) showed and lost with high card Ace
Seat 9: jbatesball (big blind) folded before Flop
My question is this: In the long run who has the advantage in this hand? This type of hand comes up so often. One player has the better hand and one has good enough odds (in this case excellent odds) to make a call. Now if I'm not mistaken the point of pot odds is to determine if making a call in a situation will turn out to be profitable in the long run. I.e-For every time you win (40% for the KQ) you win a surplus of what you lose the other 60% of the time when you call and lose. But the confusing part for me is that A9 has the advantage here and should be +EV in the long run. Although KQ is getting good enough odds to make his call profitable in the long run. I don't think two hands can both be +EV here. So, In the long run who has the advantage in this hand?
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Posted Sun May 28, 2006 12:50 pm GMT by tame_deuces
You and your friend have a 1000$ pot.
You decide to roll a dice over who gets the pot, your friend will win the pot if he rolls a 2,3,4,5,6...if he rolls a a 1 you will win the pot. But there is a catch, in order to be eligible for the die roll your friend demands that you put 10$ extra into the pot. Who stands to gain the most from the 10$ bet? Should you skip the die roll and let your friend take the pot instead?
This is in effect 'good pot odds', where two decisions can both be profitable...iyour only question of which one is more profitable. In order to put money into a fixed pot you simply have to gain equal to or more money from the call than the amount you put in, no more.
Since your friend has the edge in the dice example he can actually lay down a betsize which will make it impossible for you to profit, this is in essence what good poker players try to do to bad poker players.
Posted Sun May 28, 2006 1:04 pm GMT by tame_deuces
Or to explain some more directly related to the question...you have KK on the button, I have 22 in the CO. 100$ stacks.
I raise 95$,
You push all your chips in.
My first raise for 95$ is unprofitable, but my 5$ call into a ~195ish pot is not.
Posted Sun May 28, 2006 1:28 pm GMT by JackKingOff
please put it in simpler terms... lol 
Posted Sun May 28, 2006 2:58 pm GMT by jbark
I'll take a shot at this because i think i got it. and being a newbie i need to be sure i understand, so here is my thinking on it:
it appears to me that in this case the A9 is more likely to win, in the long run.
but,
because the size of the pot versus the cost to play it is a good gamble to call with KQ
so basically its good for both players to do just what they did. good for you to play the hand because its the hand most likely to win, and good for him to call because the payoff is big enough to justify playing the less powerful hole cards.
Now if i got this wrong then someone please straighten me out, otherwise my BR is going to be in trouble.
cheers
jerry
Posted Sun May 28, 2006 3:15 pm GMT by JackKingOff
i was referring to tame dueces examples... i knew all of that b4 
Posted Sun May 28, 2006 3:20 pm GMT by wizzwizz
I sort of grasp what Tame is saying. Although I'm still comfuzzled. KQ has the right odds, and A9 is the favourite. So who ends up with +EV?
Posted Sun May 28, 2006 3:21 pm GMT by Icec0o1
Both of you played well in this situation. Now, that's not always the case; an example is if he raised 70000 chips with 72 off on a very loose table where he would always get called.
He has KQ on a 9 person table with 3 behind him. The chances of his hand being the best one is very good so he's more then right to raise. You just happened to have a better hand and were right to reraise, and pot odds dictated his call.
Imagine he had KK and you had AA. The same would've happened because he should've raised and you just happened to have a better hand. It's all about how the cards come down sometimes.
I know it's hard to understand but both of you would profit from your plays in the long run. If this specific hand was repeated over and over, you would profit from it. Of course he might have AJ or TT next time you call with A9 and you would lose in that case.
Posted Sun May 28, 2006 3:47 pm GMT by supafrey
Hrms... to explain simpler...
+EV doesn't necessarily mean that you're a favourite to win. It just means that the cost is cheap enough for it to be a good deal.
Lets show off this example by putting it in extremes.
Let's say we're betting on the odds of a 100 sided die turning up as a "1".
We've got a pot of $1,000 bucks, and I'm taking all of the numbers from 2-100. If I bet out $1, should you call? Ofcourse. The decision is +EV because your 1 dollar gives you a 1/100 chance to win $1,001.
Did I suddenly stop being a "favourite" in the hand? Am I losing money by doing the small bet? Ofcourse not.
99/100 of the times, I'm winning your dollar, and you're only winning mine 1/100 of the time. The small bet is still technically in my favourite.... it was definitely +EV for me to make the bet, even if it was for such a small amount..
Ofcourse I'm giving you far too much of an easy decision, and I should probably be wagering more to get you off of the roll, etc, but both of our plays are still +EV. +EV doesn't mean necessarily about the "whole hand" in general, just an individual situation that has come up. Just because I'm favourite to win doesn't mean that it isn't worthwhile for you to call - that's all. It's simple =)
Posted Sun May 28, 2006 4:26 pm GMT by Tadzio
| wizzwizz wrote: | | So who ends up with +EV? |
Assuming everyone knows what everyone else is holding and play is heads up:
Overall, A9 is +EV vs KQ and will win about 54% of the time.
Once villain bet, his chips became the Pot's (they're no longer his own). Therefore, his bet to 100k was -EV. His mistake (looking at your odds to win) isn't huge-- and in a tourney, can be considered an acceptable gamble-- but in the long term he loses more of the Pot's money than he makes.
In order to get the Pot's chips, he had to call your raise by putting another 49k into the pot. Because of pot odds, it is +EV over the long-term for him to make this call unless you're holding KK or AA. Even if you're holding QQ or AK, he has odds to make a call profitable here. He shouldn't have to spend much time thinking about this before making the call. His -EV mistake of raising to 100k has essentially committed him to the chasing the Pot (he may've just as well had gone all-in).
In fact, even if villain is holding 92 (the worst hand he could have against A9), he has odds to profit long-term calling your all-in.... which of course means that your raise all-in was an inherently -EV move. As painful and wrong as it sounds, especially in a tounament, calling would've been the better move here.
Since you're heads-up and one of you are all-in PF, A9 is +EV over the long-term for the simple fact that it's a higher ranking hand than KQ. It follows that KQ is -EV long-term. Of course, if we start to consider fold-equity, things get a little more complicated. And, naturally, had villain been holding AT or better-- or had you been holding KJ or worse, your move would've been -EV.
It's all pretty fluid before the cards are flipped over.
Posted Sun May 28, 2006 4:27 pm GMT by JackKingOff
its funny cuz no one really answered the OP lol whose more profitable in the long run
EDIT : i wrote this as tadzio finished writing his
Posted Sun May 28, 2006 4:29 pm GMT by Tadzio
Figured out what to do with this double post:
| Quote: | | which of course means that your raise all-in was an inherently -EV move. As painful and wrong as it sounds, especially in a tounament, calling would've been the better move here. |
Quoting this mistake in logic to make sure everyone knows that I'm stupid, and that my neighbor's music is way too loud and bass filled.  *Pooh voice* Think, think, think.... */Pooh voice*
If ((R+P)*L) >= R, Then the Player with L has +EV to call.
If ((R+P)*L) < R, Then the Player with L has -EV to call.
Where
R = Raise
P = Pot
L < 0.5 (chance to win)
Example:
R = 100
P = 400
L = 0.33
((100+400)*0.33) = 165 > R... Player has +EV to call.
Another:
R = 10,000
P = 4,000
L = .45
((10,000+4000)*0.45) = 6,300 < R... Player has -EV to call.
If L is ever greater than 0.5, every move is +EV.
....
Sorry if I confused the OP. My bad.
Posted Sun May 28, 2006 7:48 pm GMT by wizzwizz
Aye Caramba. It's like the Quadratic formula exploded all over this thread.
Posted Sat Jul 08, 2006 9:56 am GMT by MrDarling
so, was this a good raise preflop?
You are the short stack (just 5XBB) so if would certainly open raisealln with A9 , but villain raised a little more then 3XBB, so you know he has a good hand and will call you. At best, its a coin flip, but chances are you're also a lot behind..
Tough call with these blinds and ante...
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