Posted Mon May 29, 2006 3:53 pm GMT by Johny
What's your play on the turn here? Villain is playing solid, tight poker. When she raises pre-flop she has a hand. I'll give my opinions later with results.
PokerStars Game #5090716326: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2006/05/29 - 16:36:08 (ET)
Table 'Capricorn' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: bobo271 ($38.15 in chips)
Seat 2: Johny4455 ($64.10 in chips)
Seat 3: sklaaaaar ($62.15 in chips)
Seat 4: XxCuetecxX ($45.60 in chips)
Seat 5: PIMP RYDA ($17.25 in chips)
Seat 7: KevDiesel86 ($51.30 in chips)
Seat 8: Just Vero ($72.70 in chips)
Seat 9: BadBeatTmac ($17 in chips)
PIMP RYDA: posts small blind $0.25
KevDiesel86: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Johny4455 7  7 
Just Vero: raises $1.50 to $2
BadBeatTmac: folds
bobo271: folds
Johny4455: calls $2
sklaaaaar: folds
XxCuetecxX: folds
PIMP RYDA: folds
KevDiesel86: calls $1.50
*** FLOP *** 7  8 Q 
KevDiesel86: checks
Just Vero: checks
Johny4455: bets $3
KevDiesel86: folds
Just Vero: calls $3
*** TURN *** 7 8 Q 4
Just Vero: checks
Johny4455: bets $6
Just Vero: raises $6 to $12
Johny4455: ?
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Posted Mon May 29, 2006 4:24 pm GMT by crack
Call and raise her river bet and go broke if she has hit a set of queens.
Posted Mon May 29, 2006 6:31 pm GMT by Phil14312
I re-raise, I think she might have something like AK here. Min-raise??? I don't know, but I'm ready to go broke if she has QQ.
Posted Mon May 29, 2006 7:03 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
I'd re-raise enough to entice her. Probably a raise to about $20 to $24 (I lean toward $24) will do the trick. If she re-raises all-in, call. Otherwise, just stick the rest of the money in on the river.
Posted Mon May 29, 2006 7:30 pm GMT by tame_deuces
What we get away with on the turn when we are ahead in situations like these is very much dependant on our table image and how tight villain is. If we have a loose image the queen may mask our hand from an overpair and/or villain may think TP is good enough and we can probably get away with a hefty raise on the turn. If we're a tight careful player we won't get as much value in his hand like these (but will in theory make up for that with less spewage elsewhere).
And ofcourse, if we are behind we go to the felt and nomatter what image we might have.
My 0.02$
Posted Mon May 29, 2006 7:36 pm GMT by crack
| Phil14312 wrote: | | I re-raise, I think she might have something like AK here. Min-raise??? I don't know, but I'm ready to go broke if she has QQ. |
Read is Villan plays solid tight poker. Would she really call a $3 bet into about a $6 pot with overcards? I doubt it, then to raise on the turn?
Posted Tue May 30, 2006 5:01 am GMT by Johny
I just called the turn raise, I wanted to see what she did on the river.
The river was an offsuit 9. She leads for $10. Call or raise?
The answer is probably obvious, but I wasn't so sure. I was involved in a similar hand with her, where she had just a pair. She bet the flop/ turn and checked the river. From the information I had if she bets the river she's fairly sure she has the best hand. I didn't see her betting the river with a marginal hand for this particular board.
Posted Tue May 30, 2006 8:47 am GMT by shorn7
It is a raised pot so I go broke with middle set here. I would have re-raised the turn since she easily could have AQ, AA, or KK. But, on the river I might just call here bet. Again, I would have gotten it all in on the turn with that board and if she has QQ then tough luck.
Posted Tue May 30, 2006 9:03 am GMT by UrAteUp
Call here. I doubt she has QQ. Most likely AQ or KQ here. Call if your worried and raise if your not.
Posted Tue May 30, 2006 11:00 am GMT by Hurricane Ham
I'd say if villain was a fancier player post flop, AA and KK are also a possibility. Sees a reasonably benign flop, decides to slow down and see what her opponents do. I've seen weirder stuff at the Stars NL50 tables.
Raise pre flop 4BB UTG, check/call, check/raise is a very strange line, and smells a lot like QQ, but villain's played it incredibly weak and passive if that's the case. $10 into a ~$36 pot on the river is pretty weak as well, but does come off as a bet that wants to get called. Coupled with the info that she wouldn't bet the river without being reasonably sure she has the best hand, I lean towards a call, though you've only bet half the pot twice, so she may not suspect you have a hand as strong as you do. Bah, I don't know.
Posted Tue May 30, 2006 11:31 am GMT by lwestatbus
So what happened?
Posted Tue May 30, 2006 12:01 pm GMT by Sid Lambert
there are only two hands that cant beat you, 88 and QQ, or the incredibly unlikely JT....realistically, given that the player is tight, 88 is prolly not even likely w/ a 4x raise utg...AQ is much more likely...or KK, AA, maybe JJ...besides, if he has top set, he should be slow playing since the board is so non-threatening
btw, calling a 4x utg raise preflop by a tight player while holding 77 was a little loose on your part don't you think?
regardless of all of this, get all of your chips in this pot...no flush or straight possibilities...your set is golden...if he has QQ, oh well...
Posted Tue May 30, 2006 12:18 pm GMT by crack
"btw, calling a 4x utg raise preflop by a tight player while holding 77 was a little loose on your part don't you think?"
I love that move. The implied odds are great, Villain has Hero covered. A tight player indicates a strong hand, a hand they may go all the way with, excellent if you have flopped your set. Seeing set over set is so rare, I will call in this position all day at a nl cash game.
Posted Tue May 30, 2006 1:00 pm GMT by Phil14312
| crack wrote: | | Phil14312 wrote: | | I re-raise, I think she might have something like AK here. Min-raise??? I don't know, but I'm ready to go broke if she has QQ. |
Read is Villan plays solid tight poker. Would she really call a $3 bet into about a $6 pot with overcards? I doubt it, then to raise on the turn? |
If she is a weak-tight nit, I've seen this play before. Missed flop with AK, check/call a reasonably bet, pick up a flush draw on the turn and min-raise. Looks more like QQ the more I read it, but A K is another possibility.
Posted Tue May 30, 2006 3:07 pm GMT by Johny
The way she played it I put her QQ. It may seem odd but at these stakes it wouldn't surprise me, espicially from Villain. Her $10 bet seemed very suspicious, like she wanted a call. With the way she played an earlier hand, I though she had better than just a pair in this spot.
I just called the river and she showed AQ. That really surprised me, I didn't think she would have played AQ that way.
As for my preflop call, I don't see folding here. With Villain being a tight player and the both of us with deeper stacks.
Posted Tue May 30, 2006 3:24 pm GMT by Sid Lambert
Keep in mind that there are only 6 ways to make a PP:
Q Q
Q Q
Q Q
Q Q
Q Q
Q Q
but there are 16 ways to make a non-PP:
4 suits of the first card times 4 suits of the second card = 16
so if you put them on QQ or AQ (22 different hands), assuming that all else is equal, then there is a 72% chance (16/22) that they have AQ...so keep in mind that pocket pairs are more rare
Posted Tue May 30, 2006 4:31 pm GMT by supafrey
While true, doing range calculations based on that is often misleading - I've seen snoogins use it to justify stuff, for instance, where I thought it was next to useless.
It's often quite useless to put someone on a "range" if you've got a solid read that contradicts it - how he plays one hand doesn't necessarily stack up with how "one" would usually play the range.
Posted Wed May 31, 2006 12:00 pm GMT by red_pen
| supafrey wrote: | While true, doing range calculations based on that is often misleading - I've seen snoogins use it to justify stuff, for instance, where I thought it was next to useless.
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| And then (s)he wrote: | | It's often quite useless to put someone on a "range" if you've got a solid read that contradicts it - how he plays one hand doesn't necessarily stack up with how "one" would usually play the range. |
I've not read the post(s) in question, but can take a good guess at what snoogins' gist was, namely: start with a basic hand range, and their likelihoods, and use the betting history and any reads you have to adjust the probabilities on this range, and act accordingly (i.e. maximise your ev against his range).
You can't use the card distributions exclusively, but you shouldn't ignore them either.
Posted Thu Jun 08, 2006 11:16 am GMT by 72o
I'd strongly put her on AQ. She raised preflop 4xBB. That means she had a big hand. And since she check-raised at the turn she must have hit the board. QQ is unlikely because she surely had slowplayed it. Q4 or an other two-pair is also unlikely because she wouldn't have raised or even played such a hand. So she must have top pair and top kicker, that is AQ. Or maybe KQ if she isn't too tight.
Many expierienced players like to check at the flop with top pair and bet at the turn to decieve their opponents.
Conclusion: go all-in!
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