Basic FL speculative hands preflop |
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Posted Fri Jun 02, 2006 2:15 am GMT by Phil14312
This is mainly in response to lwest's post a little while ago. I kinda just whipped it up in a few minutes, so nothing is earth-shattering or even that new. But it will probably help somebody out, or it won't, so there.
Speculative hands: suited aces, middle suited/unsuited connectors, small suited connectors, small pairs, and to a lesser extent unsuited connectors and suited kings are frequently the toughest hands to play for a profit. Big pairs, AK, AQ and trash hands are all easy to play, raise the former and fold the latter right?
However, speculative hands require certain conditions for them to be most profitable, if at all. One of those conditions is a “multiway pot.” What, exactly, defines “multiway?” Is it anything more than heads up? 5 players? 6? 9? The answer is that it doesn’t really matter. But then again it does. Simply put, the more players the better, but I would avoid playing pots with these hands when you know it will be 3-handed or heads up on the flop. There is not a right way to play any of these hands, this is poker remember?
The exceptions are when there is a single raise and it’s up to you in the BB. For half the price, it is almost always worth calling, even if the pot will be heads up and you are OOP, because you will be getting 5:1 to see the flop.
We should also be trying to see flops for cheap, that is one bet. Unless there are at least 3 cold-callers I will rarely see a flop with a speculative hand. For example, you hold 9dTd in LP and it folds to the person on your right, who raises. You fold. However, if UTG raises and 3 players cold-call the raise, I’m happy to put my chips in the pot, this situation is probably slightly more variance, but maybe even more +EV, because a preflop raiser might hold a premium hand he is willing to go to the felt with. But don’t go overboard calling 3-bets preflop cold because you think you some massive implied odds, wrong game.
I will however, not play suited aces or kings the same way. I am almost never going to call any raise with a suited ace or suited king, unless, I limped and now its only one more bet to call, I’m in the blinds, or I’m getting great odds (say 6 or more in the pot). **note, I do value suited aces more than suited kings, as aces up is significantly better than kings up.
Small pairs also offer special consideration, because when they make a set on the flop, it is frequently a disguised hand. While this has bigger implications in a NL betting structure it is also important in a limit setting. But, with that said, cold-calling raises with small pairs is going to be a drain on your bankroll. In a limit betting structure, your implied odds will never make up for your frequent 4:1 preflop disadvantages against a preflop raiser.
A play that can be made with small pairs in late position that is more powerful than it seems is to raise into a large group of limpers from LP. The frequently cited odds are 5:1 to comfortably play a set preflop, while the actually odds are something like 8:1 against making set on the flop, the bets that you will make in the later betting rounds account for this difference. So, you are on the button with 33, and 5 people limp to you, throw in a raise. It does two things: 1) its essentially neutral EV if everyone calls, which they will and 2) if you showdown your hand, it will create more action for you on your big hands.
The only other aspect is coming into pots with less than the desired “multiway” action if the player(s) entering the pot before you is/are especially weak. I love to take lots of flops with these kinds of cards if the table is loose-passive with several fish to my right. Get in cheap, make them pay you off with their crappy middle-pair and you make money.
Hope this helps a little.
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Posted Mon Jun 05, 2006 3:22 pm GMT by lwestatbus
Phil, thanks for the great reply. I agree with everything you said and think I've been doing a pretty good job of deciding when to come into a pot with these kinds of cards. I'm a little tighter with some of the hands you mentioned, such as middle or low unsuited connectors--I pretty much have to be in the blinds to play those and really get in for cheap.
I have two observations on your suited aces and kings strategy. I really like suited aces, even if the kicker is relatively small. But here's something I explicitly do if the pot is raised in front of me with them. First, I need to already see or expect that the pot will have at least four players in it. Second, here is where my player notes really come into play. I will note when players raise with a wide variety of hands vs. those that raise only premium hands. In addition, I see a LOT of players where my notes on their preflop raising almost always includes an Ace. If I think that the raise comes from a player likely to have an ace I will discount my suited ace a lot as I figure my ace has lost a lot of value. Also, I have become very, very leary of suited kings with a kicker that won't participate in a straight unless all of the factors are in alighment, position, number of callers, and history with the table.
Thanks for the great response.
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