What do you put me on here? |
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Posted Fri Jun 02, 2006 7:47 pm GMT by Johny
I'm playing a normal TAG game.
PokerStars Game #5132377255: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2006/06/02 - 20:20:08 (ET)
Table 'Kevo' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Johny4455 ($52.95 in chips)
Seat 2: guitar4799 ($80.90 in chips)
Seat 3: A-10Warthog2 ($48.30 in chips)
Seat 4: acecatcher26 ($41.20 in chips)
Seat 5: K9sx5 ($19.50 in chips)
Seat 6: Chino88 ($60.95 in chips)
Seat 8: MztrAnderson ($179.10 in chips)
Seat 9: cif283 ($72.60 in chips)
guitar4799: posts small blind $0.25
A-10Warthog2: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Johny4455 ? ?
acecatcher26: folds
K9sx5: folds
Chino88: folds
MztrAnderson: calls $0.50
cif283: calls $0.50
Johny4455: raises $2 to $2.50
guitar4799: folds
A-10Warthog2: folds
MztrAnderson: folds
cif283: calls $2
*** FLOP *** J  7  2 
cif283: checks
Johny4455: bets $5
cif283: calls $5
*** TURN *** J 7 2 Q
cif283: checks
Johny4455: checks
*** RIVER *** J 7 2 Q 9
cif283: checks
Johny4455: bets $10
cif283: calls $10
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Posted Fri Jun 02, 2006 7:58 pm GMT by Phil14312
Well its hard to say. There are a lot of reasonable possibilities. AA, KK, QQ, JJ, or 99. However, the key part of the hand is checking the turn? Why did you check the turn? Well maybe then its AK. Everything else I think you bet the turn. Perhaps you thought he was drawing and so took a stab on the river? Either AK or 99, final answer.
Posted Fri Jun 02, 2006 8:00 pm GMT by crack
JJ, QQ or AK?
But what's the point of this?
Posted Fri Jun 02, 2006 8:10 pm GMT by Ciso_B
QQ or AKc maybe?
Posted Fri Jun 02, 2006 8:14 pm GMT by Johny
| crack wrote: | JJ, QQ or AK?
But what's the point of this? |
I probably should have mentionned it but he insta-called with 52. I'm just trying to figure out what he put me on.
Posted Fri Jun 02, 2006 8:23 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
I don't know how frequently you raise 5x the BB, but usually that's a fairly clear sign of strength...
AJ is possible, but a little weak for that kind of raise. AQ is a possibility, but I don't know why you'd want to check the turn on a draw-heavy board. AK is possible, but checking the turn is also begging to get called by any pair on the river. That leaves the big pairs, TT-AA. Given the check-check action on the turn, I'm going to say it's more likely you have TT and got scared on the flop, but then thought he might have been drawing and missed the river (particularly because you'd be able to account for two of the tens). QQ or JJ are candidates for slow-playing, but I don't really see the point of checking them on the turn. KK or AA I also don't know why you'd check the turn.
So my guess is pocket tens, and he called you with a weak Jack.
EDIT: oops, too slow.
Posted Fri Jun 02, 2006 8:24 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
| Johny wrote: | | crack wrote: | JJ, QQ or AK?
But what's the point of this? |
I probably should have mentionned it but he insta-called with 52. I'm just trying to figure out what he put me on. |
He had to have put you on AK. That's the only hand he can beat you could reasonably have.
Posted Fri Jun 02, 2006 10:43 pm GMT by JackKingOff
i say AQ
Posted Sat Jun 03, 2006 12:24 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
I'm too curious Johny... what DID you have?
I like this format though... I want to post a mystery hand too now. 
Posted Sat Jun 03, 2006 8:40 am GMT by Johny
I had A10os.
I posted the hand to see what everyone put me on, with most of you putting me on a non-steal. When the hand occured I wasn't sure how he thought his hand was good, I thought that maybe the way I played the hand it was obvious I was stealing. That wasn't the case though from the answers.
Posted Sat Jun 03, 2006 8:42 am GMT by Johny
This format isn't really that bad, trying to put people who aren't donks on a hand.
Posted Sat Jun 03, 2006 9:36 am GMT by JackKingOff
ummmm whats a "TAG" game?
Posted Sat Jun 03, 2006 10:05 am GMT by kingetje
i thik that means "tight-aggressive"
Posted Sat Jun 03, 2006 10:47 am GMT by Johny
Yes, TAG means tight-aggressive.
By the way, JKoff, it was during the 1998 WSOP that Scotty said that.
Posted Sat Jun 03, 2006 11:12 am GMT by crack
It's not very accurate though. We have not played on the table as you and seen the way you have played previous hands. All we see is a TAG player raising 5xbb and then checking the turn. It's just a bit too general as you can tell from all our answers. He may have looked an obvious steal to him depending on your previous hands, maybe.
Posted Sat Jun 03, 2006 11:22 am GMT by Johny
If I knew there was a reason for him to put me on a steal due to earlier hands, I wouldn't have posted this hand. The only information he had was what I said.
Whatever... 
Posted Sat Jun 03, 2006 11:56 am GMT by crack
He eithe rhas your number or a shit player.
For him to call with a 52 after a 5xbb raise I think we know what he is.
Posted Sat Jun 03, 2006 2:35 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Why did you raise 5x the BB with ATo?
Posted Sat Jun 03, 2006 5:21 pm GMT by Johny
With dead money in the pot and position I'll often raise here. My opponents are usually easy to outplay postflop. Plus the fact I A10is usually the best hand.
Posted Sat Jun 03, 2006 10:02 pm GMT by JackKingOff
holy crap lol guess i misclicked keypad hehe i knew that 2 ><
Posted Sun Jun 04, 2006 2:49 pm GMT by JpForum
well who won the hand
Posted Sun Jun 04, 2006 3:31 pm GMT by Phil14312
He, like most of the other posters, put you on AK. Any pair or monster hand would not check the turn there, and the 9 helps very few hands.
Posted Mon Jun 05, 2006 8:26 am GMT by UrAteUp
I have to agree with Phil here. Was that 52 suited?... . I can't understand what would posses someone to call a 5xBB raise with 52...  ...but then again this is the type of crap that makes you money in the end. Wait till you get a big PP and try it again Johny. You'll have all this donks money in no time.
Posted Wed Jun 07, 2006 5:20 am GMT by ki_cz
A ridiculous call by the villain with 5/2, but I'm finding this happening often to me as well, then getting beat out by a lucky 2 pair or some other crap. With that being said, even though is pre-flop call was incredibly stupid, I find his play afterwards to make a little tiny bit of sense.
I personally, would have put you on a/k or a/q (I of course would have folded pre-flop). Perhaps I'm giving the donk way too much credit here, but if he puts you on a/k or a/q pre-flop, he'll see that you missed the flop, and then tried to buy the pot, while he has a pair (albeit a crappy pair). The turn play is where you shot yourself in the foot I would say (if of course you knew what he had). Personally, rather than betting $10 on the river, I would toss out another $5 bet on the turn. Once you check, he probably can at least see that you still haven't hit anything. Taking you off the a/q and putting you on a/k. When the turn card hits 9, I think he knows he's taking the pot. He definitely isn't scared of you having k/10 or the dreadful 10/8 which has beaten me countless times, and your turn play doesn't indicate any kind of pair.
I'd have to see more of the villains hands, but I personally believe that if you would have thrown out a bet on the turn, you might have been taking a pot. Even without this in mind, I would have played the hand with a 5xbb post-flop bet and a 10xbb turn bet. I probably wouldn't be in there with an a/10 unless I was really feeling it, but I think even though you didn't hit anything, you could have taken some money from this kid, or at least lost less.
Posted Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:10 am GMT by 72o
Why is cif283 a donk???
He had the right read on you and beat you with 52o!
Posted Thu Jun 08, 2006 11:47 am GMT by Muck
| 72o wrote: | Why is cif283 a donk???
He had the right read on you and beat you with 52o! |
Okay lets pretend he is a fantastic player that rightly put himself ahead, then why didn’t he raise?
What about on the earlier streets? Did he figure his pair of 2’s with a 5 kicker was strong enough to slow play with check-calls?
And as for trying to find fault with the pre-flop call.
Posted Thu Jun 08, 2006 1:18 pm GMT by UrAteUp
| 72o wrote: | Why is cif283 a donk???
He had the right read on you and beat you with 52o! |
 ...you dont find calling a 5xBB bet pre-flop as a donk move? Making a 5xBB bet call pre-flop with 52 is like....well like a donk move. Your only going to win perhaps 3 times out of 100 times VS A10. Say this was a $1/2 NL game. Your willing to loose $500 to make $15? If you answer yes to this then by all means please come to Iowa and set in on a few home games...
Posted Thu Jun 08, 2006 1:31 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| UrAteUp wrote: | | Your only going to win perhaps 3 times out of 100 times VS A10. |
| pokerstove wrote: | 438,349,824 games 2.125 secs 206,282,270 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 65.2941 % 65.03% 00.26% { ATs, ATo }
Hand 2: 34.7059 % 34.44% 00.26% { 52s, 52o } |
Please don't exaggerate for the sake of dramatic effect. It turns out to be bad advice.
| UrAteUp wrote: | | Say this was a $1/2 NL game. Your willing to loose $500 to make $15? If you answer yes to this then by all means please come to Iowa and set in on a few home games... |
If our stacks were deep enough and I thought I could outplay you that badly postflop, you're damn right I'll play 52o to a raise. The problem with your analysis is that rarely are you going to lose $500 with 52. It's too easy to throw it away. But when the flop comes A52, I can make much more in one hand than I'll lose in the other 20. Just because this particular hand was so poorly played doesn't automatically make it a bad idea.
Actually, that home game in Iowa sounds like a pretty good idea. PM me your address.
Posted Thu Jun 08, 2006 1:54 pm GMT by UrAteUp
| Sean_in_NJ wrote: | | UrAteUp wrote: | | Your only going to win perhaps 3 times out of 100 times VS A10. |
| pokerstove wrote: | 438,349,824 games 2.125 secs 206,282,270 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 65.2941 % 65.03% 00.26% { ATs, ATo }
Hand 2: 34.7059 % 34.44% 00.26% { 52s, 52o } |
Please don't exaggerate for the sake of dramatic effect. It turns out to be bad advice. |
Yes this was a bit of an over exaggeration. I was guestimating and by the looks of things I was way off here.
| UrAteUp wrote: | | Say this was a $1/2 NL game. Your willing to loose $500 to make $15? If you answer yes to this then by all means please come to Iowa and set in on a few home games... |
| Quote: | | If our stacks were deep enough and I thought I could outplay you that badly postflop, you're damn right I'll play 52o to a raise. The problem with your analysis is that rarely are you going to lose $500 with 52. It's too easy to throw it away. But when the flop comes A52, I can make much more in one hand than I'll lose in the other 20. Just because this particular hand was so poorly played doesn't automatically make it a bad idea. |
Fist let me ask pokerstove calculates the implied odds?
If so then please,Sean or anyone correct me if my line of thinking is way off here. Ok based on what poker stove shows. Lets say your playing 1/2 NL. Now lets plug in Johnys' scenerio here. You play this through 100 times your only going to win about 34% of the time. All things considered equal, your going to loose more often then win with 52 VS A10. If there is a 5xBB bet made pre-flop everytime then right there your risking $5 of your bankroll pre-flop. So in effect your only going to loose roughtly about $300 and win at least $150. Still if you put this to Slanskys way of thinking it's a bad call because in the long run your going to loose more often then win and thus loose more money then you can win? Hope this makes sence. Please feel free to critique...anyone.
| Quote: | | Actually, that home game in Iowa sounds like a pretty good idea. PM me your address. |
Didn't you take enough money from me at Doyles Room?....
Posted Thu Jun 08, 2006 2:34 pm GMT by zinn0
| UrAteUp wrote: | | Didn't you take enough money from me at Doyles Room?.... |
*ahem...
He gave it all to me.
Posted Thu Jun 08, 2006 2:34 pm GMT by Phil14312
Preflop, his call was bad. Postflop, he pretty much played his hand about as optimally as he could. Could he be a donk, sure, even the blind squirrel bla bla, or could he be a good postflop player that tends to play too loose preflop? Sure.
Posted Thu Jun 08, 2006 2:41 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| UrAteUp wrote: | | Fist let me ask pokerstove calculates the implied odds? |
No.
| UrAteUp wrote: | | Lets say your playing 1/2 NL. Now lets plug in Johnys' scenerio here. You play this through 100 times your only going to win about 34% of the time. All things considered equal, your going to loose more often then win with 52 VS A10. |
But you're not going to lose/win the same amount of money each time. If you have 52o and the flop comes AKQ, you easily fold and you've spent $5. If the flop comes A34, then you're potentially going to make a lot more than that when you're up against AK/AQ. The point is that you only have to have that big windfall every so often to make back the money you lost (plus extra) when you missed.
Posted Thu Jun 08, 2006 4:53 pm GMT by suitedaces84
| Sean_in_NJ wrote: | | Please don't exaggerate for the sake of dramatic effect. It turns out to be bad advice. |
It's a good thing for UrAteUp that the forum has no policy prohibiting bad advice.
| Sean_in_NJ wrote: | | Actually, that home game in Iowa sounds like a pretty good idea. PM me your address. |
Can I ride with you. If we split the gas costs we may be able to make enough playing $.01/.02 to pay for a quarter of the trip. Plus, I can tip my first cow.
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