Best way to handle this situation? (Kinda long) |
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Posted Mon Jun 12, 2006 6:51 pm GMT by TxShadow
I just wanted to post this because it's a situation that I (and I'm sure everyone) often encounter. It's a situation that I don't necessarily like to find myself in and I think it is a weakness in my game.
The scenario is as follows:
Let's assume that we're playing a NL200 game just for the sake of being on the same page, though the stakes really don't matter.
You're in early position and you look down at a hand like AQ suited or maybe AK. You make a standard raise (3xbb) of $6 (yes, you might bet a little more than this, not important). You get 2 or 3 callers, blinds fold.
Flop comes down something like J 8 3 rainbow. Ouch. Flop completely missed us and we're first to act. What is your gameplan at this point?
My options are to either make a continuation bet, maybe 1/3 to 1/2 the pot or just check and get ready to muck if someone comes out betting (or call if I'm getting a good price to see if I improve). Is one of those options generally better than the other?
Let's assume you go the route of taking a stab at it. You throw out $10 (into our imaginary $21 pot) and get a caller. Other 2 players fold. Turn comes down another blank.
Now what? I'm acting first, the flop missed me, I get no help on the turn. I know my opponent could either have a small piece of the flop, a small pocket pair, or nothing at all (or hell, he could be slowplaying a set). In any event I'm probably behind at this point. The decision definately gets easier when you miss the turn as well. But for the sake of asking, do you give up here or throw some more money at it? Is this a situation where you vary your play (sometimes fire again, sometimes check/fold)? You generally know if you check in this spot, you're going to face a bet and have to fold. If he does indeed just have a small piece of it or a little pocket pair a nice sized bet might scare him off, and if he's got a good piece of it or an overpair, he'll almost certainly raise, making our decision even easier (and our stack even smaller since we decided to take another shot).
Anyway, I know it's dependent upon stacks, opponents playstyle, your table image, etc., etc. Try not to focus too much on the details or the exact example given.
Basically, what's the best line to take when you raise in early position with a solid hand, get called, and have a flop pretty much miss you completely? Am I getting too ambitious by wanting to at least attempt a stab at the pot when a rag flop comes down? Maybe I need to just be more willing to give up in early position when I don't get a piece of the flop.
If your answers would rely heavily on what type of opponent we are up against, then feel free to tell me what you'd do vs. a loose passive calling station, vs. a TAG, etc.
It just seems like I lose money consistantly in this spot. Is there a better way to go about it?
Thanks for reading such a long post. I look forward to your input.
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Posted Mon Jun 12, 2006 7:27 pm GMT by tame_deuces
You should rarely continuation bet into a multiway pot if it missed you and the flop is likely to have hit other hands, especially when OOP.
Basically the amount of players have bloated the pot so considerably that if you miss, you will have to make a fairly large bet with a hand that is unlikely to be the best when the hand ends.
Ofcourse, if you pick up a draw of sorts or the flop is unlikely to have hit your opponents, fire away.
Posted Mon Jun 12, 2006 7:36 pm GMT by crack
I like the continuation bet line a lot,especially if I am HU or 3 handed. I tend to give up the pot a lot if there are more players in and I am bluffing.
I think I take a stab at the turn there and then and how I feel. Do I feel like a bluff will be +ev most of the time. There have been times I have bet against players the whole way with just A high and taken the pot down uncontested on the river.
It all depends how strong my read is. I am not just going on what pokertracker says. If the flop is uncordinated and someone is calling the flop bet I usually give up on the turn except sometimes I may take another stab at a fish if it's HU.
Calling stations, tight players and usually lags I give up on the turn a lot. I say usually because if I feel weakness I will get tricky with someone, check raising, 3 betting the turn if they raise. I think it just comes down to experience at the end of the day.
Posted Mon Jun 12, 2006 8:38 pm GMT by UrAteUp
In TXs' situation I would do a continuation bet after the flop and again on the river. Against only one other player my AX may still be good plus we have yet to see the river. If after the river I fear that I am beat then I check but if I hit the river then chances are I am betting again.
Edit: I wanted to clean this up a little to explain what I would do after the river.
Posted Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:58 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
Well, you've basically exposed the problem of position.
The majority of the time, you ought to at least consider slowing down when your continuation bet is called. If you think your opponent did indeed hit something, and you don't improve the turn, I'd probably just check/fold the turn. If I do hit the turn, I like to mix my play between betting again and check-raising.
If you suspect your opponent is calling with some kind of draw, you probably ought to consider making another, larger continuation bet on the turn if an inoccuous card comes. If he comes over the top, well, it's probably time to fold.
Posted Tue Jun 13, 2006 12:37 pm GMT by shorn7
Whether to continue firing on the turn is governed by three things in my mind: 1) your read of your opponent(s), 2) the number of opponents, 3) the texture of the board. In order:
1. If your read is a small pair or a draw, then fire again. Remember that most people who call a raise preflop put the raiser on AK or AQ and not AA or KK. So, they might call your flop bet with an underpair to the baord. In some case, you need to fire again to make these folks go away. Know your opponents and who is capable of making a flop call with a small pair and who isnt.
2. The more opponents you have, the less likely a continuation bet (which is in effect a semi-bluff) will work. I generally will not fire twice into more than two opponents. Most of the time, i will fire twice into 1 and 2 opponents is decision time. How well do I know the players and what they will play is a big factor here.
3. What does the board tell you? Does it have obvious draws or not? Without an obvious draw, your opponent has likely made a good pair or has a PP that is close to the top card on the board, or has better than that. Be nuch more inclined to fire again with draws out there than if the board is Q732 rainbow and you hold AK.
I think the bottom line is that this is very situation dependent. All this being said, I do not think that it is very -EV to check/fold the turn a significant portion of the time when your continuation bet is called, even against 1 opponent. It is often best to just cut your losses and move on to the next hand.
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