Do you fire a second barrel? |
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Posted Fri Jun 16, 2006 5:09 am GMT by supafrey
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Hand #332480988 at table: Table TH 236
Started: Fri Jun 16 11:05:05 2006
headstrong is at seat 1 with 178.00
Kopi44 is at seat 2 with 212.05
DA_Empire is at seat 3 with 150.00
james302 is at seat 4 with 138.69
giggi26 is at seat 6 with 122.05
kaanbey1 is at seat 7 with 123.95
supafrey is at seat 8 with 254.00
GILA is at seat 9 with 109.55
sweetdude is at seat 10 with 200.00
GILA posts the large blind 2.00
supafrey posts the small blind 1.00
sweetdude posts all blind 3.00
supafrey: 2s, Qs
GILA: --, --
headstrong: --, --
Kopi44: --, --
DA_Empire: --, --
james302: --, --
giggi26: --, --
kaanbey1: --, --
Pre-flop:
headstrong: Fold
Kopi44: Check
DA_Empire: Call 2.00
james302: Call 2.00
giggi26: Call 2.00
kaanbey1: Fold
supafrey: Call 2.00
GILA: Check
Flop (Board: 2d, 7s, 8s):
supafrey: Check
GILA: Check
Kopi44: Check
DA_Empire: Bet 4.00
james302: Call 4.00
giggi26: Fold
supafrey: Raise 24.00
GILA: Fold
Kopi44: Fold
DA_Empire: Call 24.00
james302: Call 24.00
Turn (Board: 2d, 7s, 8s, 3d):
supafrey: ??
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Posted Fri Jun 16, 2006 6:27 am GMT by Johny
The pot is ~$82, so I'd bet around $50.
Villains haven't shown any strenght. I don't consider betting less than 1/2 the pot in a 5 way hand strenght.
If he had made a real bet on the flop, I'd be inclined to check.
Posted Fri Jun 16, 2006 6:43 am GMT by TheSalche
something is suspicious here ... are both of them drawing? does one of them have a set or top two?
my guess is if you hit your flush it won't be good
i think you have to fire out a bet here almost for table image ... otherwise you're sending the signal "hey if i check raise you and you call me ... ill shit my pants"
Posted Fri Jun 16, 2006 10:01 am GMT by shorn7
I definitely fire again, probably 1/2 to 2/3 of the pot. You want to make your river decision easy and the only way to do that is find out now if you are up against a real hand. Sure, someone could raise you and you probably have to throw it away, but it might save you $$ on the hand in the long run.
My guess is that at least 1 of them is on a spade draw, so you don't know if the spade is good or not. PErhaps someone has a set, but I doubt that...more likely a middle overpair to the baord and they want to find out if you are serious or not. Show them you are and they might both go away.
Posted Fri Jun 16, 2006 10:41 am GMT by supafrey
supafrey: Bet 40.00
DA_Empire: Call 40.00
james302: Call 40.00
River: K 
Supafrey: ?????????
Posted Fri Jun 16, 2006 10:44 am GMT by Sean_in_NJ
Check/fold. Valiant attempt though.
Posted Fri Jun 16, 2006 10:45 am GMT by zinn0
I think we've wasted enough money on this hand. c/f, unless BOTH villains are prone to draw, and then bluff the pot when they miss.
Posted Fri Jun 16, 2006 11:02 am GMT by arras
open fold and type 'oops, wrong button' 
Posted Fri Jun 16, 2006 12:36 pm GMT by shorn7
Check and see what happens. You can't fire again with bottom pair here. If neither of them has a big hand, you will get to showdown for free. If someone fires and gives u less than 4-1, I think you fold. If more, you might have to make a crying call.
Posted Fri Jun 16, 2006 2:37 pm GMT by crack
whiffed draw and bottom pair, ftl!!
Check fold unless you can specifically put these both on drawing hands or they are capable of laying down an overpair/top pair.
3 way bluffing all in may just be spewing chips, but you have shown strength the whole way as if you are forcing them to pay for their draws, so this may be one of those all in moments with your monster bottom pair.
I have done it before, depends on if I think they will lay down more often than not, even more difficult in a 3 way pot.
Posted Fri Jun 16, 2006 2:37 pm GMT by UrAteUp
| arras wrote: | | open fold and type 'oops, wrong button' |
This is a classic. I got to remember this one....  .
Posted Fri Jun 16, 2006 4:12 pm GMT by supafrey
open fold is the stupidest choice, obviously
Any more opinions before I say mine? Should be obvious judging my general personality, though.
Posted Fri Jun 16, 2006 4:20 pm GMT by Jefecaminador
you fire again hoping the guy with 98 folds and that the other guy had a flush draw?
Posted Fri Jun 16, 2006 5:22 pm GMT by TheSalche
push the river
Posted Fri Jun 16, 2006 6:18 pm GMT by supafrey
Questions to consider:
How much is left in our opponents stack after their turn calls?
What hands would our first opponent be willing to call (and only call) our raises with on the turn and previous flop?
What hands would our second opponent (considering that he's acting after two other players) be willing to call with (and only call) on the flop and subsequent turn?
What hands are we losing to?
How bad was that river card for us? (Good for us?)
Posted Fri Jun 16, 2006 7:34 pm GMT by snoogins47
Well, chances are good that at least one of them missed their draw (James particularly), and it's pretty unlikely to be a Ks Xs draw, since it's almost got to be KJ or worse. Tricky part is that the only better hand than ours that almost unquestionably folds the river here is like, As3s. I think the K was one of the best blanks we could've hoped for... I don't know.
Multiway NL pots confuse the hell out of me.
A push may pick up the pot more than the requisite 30-odd percent of the time we need, but I can't quite decide how often a better one-pair hand is actually involved here, that folds the river. Since many of the times we pick up the pot we actually had the best hand, along with the fact that if you check, I can't see our opponents betting with a worse hand than ours often, or with any better hand that they would have folded to a push.. checking seems viable too. It's that pesky deuce. I wish you had Qs4s here so I could just tell you to push.
Posted Sat Jun 17, 2006 4:11 am GMT by supafrey
supafrey: Bet 84.00
FOLD DA_Empire
FOLD james302
supafrey wins the pot of 201.00 by default
Posted Sat Jun 17, 2006 8:59 am GMT by TheSalche
hah i was waiting for somebody to call me crazy for pushing the river, considering im tighter than a 14 year old virgin
but nicely played sir
i think the key here to why they folded is their small bets on the flop and the passive play after that ... what do you think supa? what made you push?
Posted Sat Jun 17, 2006 2:09 pm GMT by crack
supa being supa probably.
wp
Posted Sun Jun 18, 2006 3:28 pm GMT by supafrey
Well I hoped that my questions would point it in the right direction, and snoo's point about "30% success rate = big money" was probably the final icing on the cake that I wondered if you guys would pick up on.
The $84 bet was as much as the bigger of the two stacks had in his purse, and I was almost certain that we'd win this hand enough of the time to make it profitable. Lets consider why.
What hand would DA_Empire call the flop re-raise with? Most probably any higher flush draw, any overpair, any oesd, and most likely any set. Two pair would probably reraise because of the board, but maybe not. This is a possibility, but a smaller one.
As for James? On the flop? Well - any flush draw would have great odds. Most probably an Ax flush draw, but probably NOT an open ended s/f draw or AKs. Those would most likely push on this kind of a board at these stakes, especially three handed. A set is very unlikely, as the coordinated board and two players before would very likely induce a push as well. Two pair is a slim chance, as any decent player would be forced to raise as well. Overpair is also very unlikely - a raise would be smarter. So either jamesy is a complete retard OR has a decent drawing hand.
The turn was as safe as they get, and I honestly thought that a bet there would take down the pot for us. When DA_Empire called, the only hand I could think of was (again) a strong flush draw or oesd. No other hands would make CALLING a right play. (99-AA? definitely not).. Two pair? Nah. That would be perfect for a reraise as well. Draw draw draw.
James? Well - he's AGAIN behind both of us in the action and STILL manages to call. This was probably the most confusing of the actions but basically lets us be almost entirely sure that we're currently beating his hand. Any brain activity on his part would demand a different course of action - he is MUCH less of a threat than DA_Empire (who may honestly believe that james would fold behind him, broadening the amount of hands that he would wish to smooth call in position on us with).
THE RIVER:
Well. It's a pretty good card for us, actually. Pretty much the best we could hope for (reasonably hope for, atleast). The king leaves most draws dead to rights, except for the lone KJs flush draw or a HORRIBLY played KK. AKs (i'm convinced) would have wanted a push or stronger action at the very least, and is most likely not a concern. In all my experience at stakes from 50nl-400nl I've rarely seen AK play the way that either of these players have decided to play.
Most importantly though: Their stack sizes have left us with a pretty decent situation. The $84 bet only needs to win a small chunk of the time (30%, according to our "math whiz" heh) and yet is sizable enough to still matter. (Perfect pot control, if I say so myself). While snoo is correct that most hands are likely losing to us regardless (sadly, eh?) I'd much rather keep whatever pathetic table image I may have and not show down my Q2 monster. I don't need people knowing that I can play that aggressively (read: stupidly, har har) and with the likely folds that we're about to see it makes the bet a profitable one.
NORMALLY I DO NOT LIKE BETTING RIVERS WITH CRAP. I repeat: You can be a great winner and longtime superstar if you don't fire a third barrel most of the time. In this situation, however, it is one of those few rare opportunities. This is an exception, not a rule, and that's the only reason I took the time to rant for this long about the hand. (Verbal diarhea...)
If one of our opponents showed down a set, I would be a little surprised, and if they simply showed an overpair I would be very impressed. Two pair is the most likely possibility, maybe, or even the dreaded KJs that I've been loathing in the back of my mind. This will NOT happen more than 70% of the time though. Push is probably smartest.
Probably.
Thoughts?
Posted Sun Jun 18, 2006 7:20 pm GMT by tame_deuces
I don't think it matters that much here...I think you're good some of the time and you'll get called by a better hand some of the time when you push (considering the two other's stack/pot relation), since you in this hand actually have showdown value it's probably really close between a bet/check, without it you have to bet here.
I like a bet partly because they don't get to see your hand if they fold.
Posted Sun Jun 18, 2006 9:37 pm GMT by mikenike
| supafrey wrote: | supafrey: Bet 40.00
DA_Empire: Call 40.00
james302: Call 40.00
River: K
Supafrey: ????????? |
fire a third of about 200 bucks :D
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