Posted Sat Jun 24, 2006 6:14 am GMT by Biowza
Hey i was wondering what are the odds of hitting a flush draw on the river. An example was i had JK  , two diamonds on the flop, blank on the turn and with someone raising half the pot i wondered what were the odds of me hitting that flush.
thanks
(i folded)
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Posted Sat Jun 24, 2006 8:42 am GMT by MJJ
The simple method is to take the number of outs you have and multiply by 2 (you would multiply by 4 if there were 2 cards still to come)
So 9 outs (9 diamonds left in deck) x2 = 18%
With someone betting 1/2 the pot, you were getting 3:1 to call but you were only 1 in 5.5 to hit your hand- good fold
Posted Sat Jun 24, 2006 8:48 am GMT by Biowza
ok thanks 
Posted Sat Jun 24, 2006 11:26 am GMT by LapOp
Yeah 18% is a real good one which you can use at a live tournament. And the mentioned forumula is a good one to make a quick math. But maybe it's good to do the real math:
On the turn it is 9/47 * 100% = 19,15%
After the turn before the river it is 9/46 = 19,56%
Note: after the flop there are 47 unseen cards and after the river 46.
Your chance to hit a diamond on the turn OR the river is 34,63%. Don't make the eror to count 19,15 and 19,56 to 38,71!!!!
To calculate the last one use the following formula:
100 - ((100-19,15)*(100%-19,15%)) =
100 - ((80,85)*(80,85%) =
100 - (80,85*80,85%) =
100 - 65,37 =
34,63
Okay now explaination to the earlier formula is: after the flop you can multiplie your outs by two. After the flop with two cards to come you can multiplie it by four.
9 outs x 2 = 18 %
9 outs x 4 = 36%
As you see there's not as much difference as you would expect but I hope u will undestand the basic some more which is important for the rest of your pokercareer.
Posted Sat Jun 24, 2006 2:17 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
The more correct way to calculate odds when there is more than one card to come is to to subtract the total probability of the event NOT happening from 1.
Hence, the odds of hitting a flush with four to a flush,
By the turn OR river = 1 - 1-(9/47) 1-(9/46) = 35%
By the turn = 9/47 = 19.1%
By the river if turn is a blank = 19.6%
Note that the probability of a diamond on EITHER the turn or river is not the simple sum of the other two probabilities.
Posted Sat Jun 24, 2006 3:59 pm GMT by Gunslinger
There are great odds charts and calculators on the left hand side of this forum, you can see what pot odds you need for any number of outs on any street.
Posted Sat Jun 24, 2006 9:45 pm GMT by Biowza
ok im guessing that would work for other outs as well for instace holding 7  8  and the flop being 6  K 9
you would find the number of outs for your straight (4 10s and 4 5s = 8 outs for your straight)
8x4 to hit it on the turn = approx 32%
if that is a blank then
8x2 to hit it on the river = approx 16%
all correct? (i know i probably didnt do the most accurate calculation but that would just be a rough estimate)
Posted Sat Jun 24, 2006 11:40 pm GMT by MJJ
| Biowza wrote: | ok im guessing that would work for other outs as well for instace holding 7 8 and the flop being 6 K 9
you would find the number of outs for your straight (4 10s and 4 5s = 8 outs for your straight)
8x4 to hit it on the turn = approx 32%
if that is a blank then
8x2 to hit it on the river = approx 16%
all correct? (i know i probably didnt do the most accurate calculation but that would just be a rough estimate) |
to hit on turn would be X2, to hit on turn or river would be X4- you go X2 per card...
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