How do yous figure this math in your head? |
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Posted Tue Jul 04, 2006 12:26 am GMT by Raisor
Your out odds. I don't know the correct term for it.
You have 8 outs going to the turn.
You 'out odds' are 2.1-1?
How do you get it that close, meaning the 2.(insertnumberhere) in your head? Or do yous estimate? Or if you know your pot odds are greater do you even bother?
What's process in your head you use to figure it out so closly?
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Posted Tue Jul 04, 2006 1:02 am GMT by Sean_in_NJ
I've done it so many times, I don't have to think about it anymore.
Use the odds calculator on this site, and memorize some of the more common scenarios: 8 outs (OESD), 9 outs (FD), etc. Makes it easier at the table.
Posted Tue Jul 04, 2006 11:01 am GMT by Raisor
OESD? FD? 
Posted Tue Jul 04, 2006 12:31 pm GMT by Iron Butt
^ Open-ended straight draw, flush draw.
Most people I think use the "rule of 2 and 4", where your chance of hitting your draw is represented as a percent by outs x 2 for the turn and x 4 for both turn and river (say for an all-in). So for 8 outs as in an OESD, for the turn, 8 x 2 = 16%. To convert this to a ratio (X to 1), 100 divided by 16 is approximately 6, so you're about 5 to 1. But there's also a lot to be said for just memorizing common situations as Sean suggests, since there's only really a dozen or so common situations and the rest tend to be no-brainers like outs <4 or >15.
It's very important to be aware of the principle, but I find I don't actually crunch the numbers much. It's essential to know the common situations, like a minbet into a large pot where pot odds require that you call with almost anything, and so on. But, if it's close enough where you'd really need to know for instance whether you were getting 6 to 1 or 5 to 1 to make the correct decision according to odds, I'm usually making that decision based on other factors.
Posted Tue Jul 04, 2006 1:06 pm GMT by davepoker
Yea the rules of 2 and 4 usually work but there are some exceptions to them.
for example
K  Q vs A  2 
flop- T J 2 
the rule of 4 estimates your winning 84% of the time
open-end straight flush draw plus 2 overcards = 21 outs
actual odds- 66.97 %
Posted Tue Jul 04, 2006 2:01 pm GMT by Iron Butt
^ Well, that's not how it's used; any time you know the opponent's cards you can of course calculate odds exactly. Also it estimates your chance of hitting your draw(s), not the chance that you'll win; sometimes these are the same, sometimes very different things.
It's a tool that you use to let's say make a "weather forecast" for your hand. You have to make some assumptions, and any one of them can be wrong, and unlikely things can happen, but it's better than nothing.
Posted Tue Jul 04, 2006 8:24 pm GMT by Raisor
I know how to use the 4 2 rule, it's just that I can't convert the percentage to a ratio without using a calculator.
Posted Wed Jul 05, 2006 4:40 pm GMT by Gunslinger
Sean's right, in that you should just memorize the ones that come up most often, which is usually the ones between 4 and 9 outs. Any more outs than that, and you're pretty almost assured of having the correct pot odds to call. After seeing these situations a number of times they'll stick in your head.
It's very important, however, if you're using the rule of 4 on the flop (or it's X:1 equivalent), to realize that these are your odds if you get to see both the turn and the river. If you're calling a bet to see the turn, and will have to call another one to see the river if you miss the turn, make sure you use the rule of 2 odds to see just the next card.
Posted Wed Jul 05, 2006 6:01 pm GMT by davepoker
I think Ace on the River by Barry Greenstein has the odds in the back of his book.
Posted Fri Jul 07, 2006 12:16 am GMT by Raisor
Yeah I think I'm gonna memorize between 4-10 outs.
Should be easy, the number is the same on the turn and the river.
Posted Fri Jul 07, 2006 8:22 am GMT by shorn7
Roughly, there is an easy table to remember and here it is (for odds on the next card ONLY):
9 outs is 4-1
8 outs is 5-1
7 outs is 6-1
6 outs is 7-1
5 outs is 8-1
4 outs is 9-1
If you forget it in the heat of battled, jut remember that is crosses over at 7 and 6 (7 outs at 6 and 6 outs at 7) and go from there.
These are not exact but close enough for you to make good decisions at the table.
Hope this helps.
Shorn
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