Posted Wed Jul 05, 2006 9:49 am GMT by zinn0
20+2 on AP. Hero built up the big stack early on when I got AJs, QQ, and JJ back to back to back. Started stealing with ease, and coasted to the bubble. Villain has acquired the CL when he hit his miracle 3 outter on the river to knock 2 guys out. To say Villain is LAGgy would be an understatement.
Chipstacks
SB 2000
BB (Villain) 5100
UTG (hero) 5000
Button (ss) 1400
Blinds are at 100/200
Hero picks up TT utg. I make it 600 to go.
Folds around to BB who reraises making it 1800.
This seems like an obvious push/fold situation, and I'm leaning towards pushing against this Villain. But with the SS having exactly 7bb's left I don't think a fold is the worst play in the world. What do you folks think?
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Posted Wed Jul 05, 2006 10:02 am GMT by JewishPete
I probably fold here and wait for a better time to get into a confrontation.
However, with the given information about Villain, and the fact that you say he is extremely LAG I don't think a push would be an entirely terrible move.
At this point in the MTT, Vllain is going to need an extremely strong hand to call you assuming he is not a total moron.
Anything other than KK or AA would not get a call from me if you pushed at this point.
However, you're dealing with someone who does not seem to be the greatest player, and it would seem as though you are dealing with a coin flip here. Villain probably has no problem throwing himself into a coin flip and most likely would call you with any high ace. Even though it may be a bubble steal, I really just fold here and pick a better spot.
Interested to see how this turned out. I hope you placed well 
Posted Wed Jul 05, 2006 10:49 am GMT by Poto
JewishPete explained this pretty well. I don't think this is a good spot to get all the money in there considering your big chip stack and the smaller stacks. This might be EV+ chip wise but I don't think it's EV+ money wise.
Posted Wed Jul 05, 2006 2:37 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
I think this is an easy fold personally, if the money is bad. Phil Gordon recently published a column explaining that if you can outplay the bad guy, why risk all your chips in one 55-45 swoop? Wait for a spot where you're probably 3-to-1 or better to get your chips in.
Folding a better hand here is a small mistake.
Losing and missing the chance for 1st or 2nd is a big mistake.
Take your pick.
Posted Wed Jul 05, 2006 2:56 pm GMT by UrAteUp
I don't know...I might call here and see a flop. If a 10 comes out push. Almost any other high card I would fold to.
You would still have plenty of chips left if you called, seen the flop and then folded. It's really a fifty fifty if you ask me. I could see folding it and I could see making the call but I couldn't see making a push pre-flop with 1010.
Posted Wed Jul 05, 2006 4:08 pm GMT by Gunslinger
I had a very similar situation the other day in a SNG. Major aggressive LAG to my immediate right. I doubled thru him earlier just by letting him bet into my monster. With five left, he has aggressively climbed back to the CL at 3000, but has me covered by only 150 chips. Places 3 and 4 are just under TC2000, and the SS under 1000. Blinds 50/100, folds to him in the SB, I'm in the BB, and he makes a pretty blatant steal raise to 800. I have A8s, so I push. He calls with a dominated 86o  . I made the right read, but that didn't stop him from spiking a 6 on the river to knock me out, much to the delight of places 3 and 4 I'm sure.
The lesson learned, and I remember this from HOH as well, was don't assume your fellow chip leaders are smart enough to not tangle with you, even in a bubble situation. I would wait for a better situation.
Posted Wed Jul 05, 2006 4:09 pm GMT by MJJ
| UrAteUp wrote: | I don't know...I might call here and see a flop. If a 10 comes out push. Almost any other high card I would fold to.
You would still have plenty of chips left if you called, seen the flop and then folded. It's really a fifty fifty if you ask me. I could see folding it and I could see making the call but I couldn't see making a push pre-flop with 1010. |
I think that would be the worst play because you maximize your losses-
If it flops all undercards- he still wins w/ AA or KK and can fold his AK/AQ because they didn't hit (if you were AI and flopped unders, you would want his call w/ AK or AQ) So you will either still lose or win less than a push.
If you see a overcard on flop you say you would fold- and you are less 1/3 of your stack.
I think it is clearly push or fold. Push to maximize possible win, fold to minimize possible loss- either one could be argued
Posted Wed Jul 05, 2006 4:34 pm GMT by UrAteUp
Doesn't the possibility of getting a set count for something here? Hell villian could be pushing with mid/small pp. Zinno did read him as a LAG. But I can see the point in folding as I said.
Posted Wed Jul 05, 2006 4:37 pm GMT by zinn0
| UrAteUp wrote: | | Doesn't the possibility of getting a set count for something here? Hell villian could be pushing with mid/small pp. Zinno did read him as a LAG. But I can see the point in folding as I said. |
Calling/risking 1/3 of my stack hoping for a set is awful.
Posted Wed Jul 05, 2006 5:09 pm GMT by MJJ
| UrAteUp wrote: | | Doesn't the possibility of getting a set count for something here? Hell villian could be pushing with mid/small pp. Zinno did read him as a LAG. But I can see the point in folding as I said. |
I think that it is ~1/10 to hit a set, but you are risking 1/3 of your stack to do it...
I would personally push here, given the read; BUT I could also see folding- I just would not put 1/3 of my stack in with the idea if no 10 came I would fold to overcards or push postflop w/ all unders (since I could be facing JJ-AA anyways)
Just my .02
Basically, I am just looking to get some fold equity on the hand or wait for a better/different spot.
Posted Thu Jul 06, 2006 3:25 am GMT by Poto
quote="MJJ" | UrAteUp wrote: |
Basically, I am just looking to get some fold equity on the hand or wait for a better/different spot. |
I don't think the player described in this hand will fold in this spot often at all so the fold equity can't be good if we push here.
Posted Thu Jul 06, 2006 8:48 am GMT by MJJ
quote="Poto" | MJJ wrote: | | UrAteUp wrote: |
Basically, I am just looking to get some fold equity on the hand or wait for a better/different spot. |
I don't think the player described in this hand will fold in this spot often at all so the fold equity can't be good if we push here. |
So... are you saying it is a good idea to call the 1800? Would you fold? Push?
Posted Thu Jul 06, 2006 1:18 pm GMT by UrAteUp
I can agree with the fold here but I can also agree with a call. Not a push but a call for sure. You never know where you stand in this hand without seeing the board. Pre-flop 1010 is favored to win against any AX hand. Without knowing what villian is pushing with I say this is a smart lay down and an easy one. If you could tell though by his style that he didn't have crap or was raising a medicore hand then I say make the call. But without knowing this is a good lay down.
Posted Thu Jul 06, 2006 1:40 pm GMT by suitedaces84
I don't see why this is push/fold. I also don't like the idea of waiting for a "better spot" because villian is so terrible. Even if villian is loose-aggressive and bad your edge with blinds at 100/200 will be very small. Take a flop. Get all-in on small cards or T and give it to him on big cards.
Posted Thu Jul 06, 2006 2:18 pm GMT by UrAteUp
| suitedaces84 wrote: | | I don't see why this is push/fold. I also don't like the idea of waiting for a "better spot" because villian is so terrible. Even if villian is loose-aggressive and bad your edge with blinds at 100/200 will be very small. Take a flop. Get all-in on small cards or T and give it to him on big cards. |
+1 for suitedaces...now do you people see what I was trying to say here?
Posted Thu Jul 06, 2006 3:20 pm GMT by zinn0
I just think risking 1/3 of my chips hoping for unders is silly.
Posted Thu Jul 06, 2006 7:18 pm GMT by Sid Lambert
70% chance of any overs coming on the flop...
its a good question...i suppose i could go either way...i mean your m is about 17...i dont think i could push considering the other dude would call w/ some crap like kj, who would unkowingly have a coin flip chance of winning....if i thought he was that bad...i'd probably wait and trap him....i think i'd probably play this hand however i happened to be feeling at the time w/o analyzing too much, which would probably be a bad idea 
we could do a little shal, a la harrington:
hand......likelihood...win pct
2 overs...60%..........55%
1 over....20%..........70%
big pp.....10%.........20%
lil pp.......10%.........80%
pp's cancel more down to 50%...so yer looking at winning 57% of the time...assuming he calls....i bet action dan would fight if he thought about it long enuf....you do have the 5th best hand against a crappy player after all
but i'd prolly call since i have position, cant let that hand go, and dont wanna risk everything preflop on a very possible coin flip
Posted Thu Jul 06, 2006 10:58 pm GMT by suitedaces84
For going all-in to be better than folding you have to win about 65% of the time. Against a LAG TT is close to this. When you factor in the time you can fold postflop calling has got to be better than folding, but it's closer than I originally thought.
And I didn't mean fold on any over. I'd say call on Qxx or Jxx.
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