Does being sneaky pay off? |
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Posted Wed Jul 19, 2006 11:13 pm GMT by supafrey
http://www.pokerhand.org/?418495
Hero?
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Posted Wed Jul 19, 2006 11:29 pm GMT by zinn0
Push. Villain is trying to get cute with something like AK.
Posted Thu Jul 20, 2006 12:27 am GMT by khaosanroad
The idiot was trying to steal the blinds with 8T or 68. JJ or 99 seems very possible. KK or QQ would most likely make a bet on the turn.
If he's dumb he might be bluffing the strait.
Posted Thu Jul 20, 2006 2:03 am GMT by Tadzio
It's worth a call. I wouldn't push here just cause it's possible he was on a steal and hit 2 pair a set or a straight on the river. Pushing could cripple you, and calling pays pretty well on it's own without risking cripplage.
If he's not bluffing, the hand range I put him on is J7, 97, T8, or 77. If he is bluffing I put him on QT or 2 diamonds. The flop call, turn check and then sudden strength on the river doesn't really make a lot of sense unless he has one of these hands. Despite this, I couldn't fold aces to this board. Call and see what he's up to... even if he's not bluffing, the call could be worth the info.
Posted Thu Jul 20, 2006 2:16 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
I don't think there's much value to raising unless he REALLY misplayed AJ or KJ. T8 doesn't seem likely, and not too many holdings account for two pair. A set is a possible, but unlikely hand.
I think I might just call, on the off chance I'm beat.
Posted Thu Jul 20, 2006 2:45 am GMT by Jefecaminador
He obviously has 1010. He was wary of the jack on the board, but after you checked the turn, he figured you were on the flush draw.
Posted Thu Jul 20, 2006 4:33 am GMT by Tadzio
I don't see TT being a holding, so it's not obvious to everyone. TT would be smart to bet the turn and shouldn't raise the river.
Posted Thu Jul 20, 2006 5:04 am GMT by fiezk
there's absolutely no value in raising - you'll only get called by a better hand.
A raise on a good sized bet on the river usually means 1 of two things, either you're strong or you're empty. The way this hand was played I reckon there's enough chance of him bluffing to justify a call.
Posted Thu Jul 20, 2006 5:30 am GMT by tame_deuces
To some replies in this thread:
Here is a very good text on putting villain on exact hands:
http://www.texasholdem-poker.com/forum/t17823/putting-someone-on-a-hand
As for the hand in question I think this is a call, the turn check+river raise makes it look like a free card so he might have something, but the way you played your hand could make him believe stuff you beat is all good, so getting near 3 to 1 I think its a call.
I'm no donkament expert though, its the ring game player in me speaking.
Posted Thu Jul 20, 2006 7:53 am GMT by zinn0
| zinn0 wrote: | | Push. Villain is trying to get cute with something like AK. |
Posted Thu Jul 20, 2006 8:06 am GMT by tame_deuces
Why push if you are sure he has AK? Will he call? 
Posted Thu Jul 20, 2006 9:34 am GMT by zinn0
Probably not, but I know I wouldn't want the table to see how weak I just played AA.
Posted Thu Jul 20, 2006 9:41 am GMT by Dave B
I dont see the point in raising here. It is early in the tournament, you arent going to win it with this hand. AA is just a pair, a great pair that deserves a call, but reraising would be trouble.
Posted Thu Jul 20, 2006 9:42 am GMT by Tadzio
| zinn0 wrote: | | Probably not, but I know I wouldn't want the table to see how weak I just played AA. |
If you push and are right, you save your table image but the only reasonable (by reasonable I mean I don't think the dude has KK or QQ) hand you beat that has a chance to call you is AJ. If you push and are wrong you're down to 2 blinds left. Table image is worth that?
Posted Thu Jul 20, 2006 9:49 am GMT by zinn0
Maybe I'm not seeing something here, but what hand checks behind us on the turn and then goes crazy on the river?
Posted Thu Jul 20, 2006 9:56 am GMT by Tadzio
Here zinn0:
| Tadzio wrote: | | If he's not bluffing, the hand range ... is J7, 97, T8, or 77. If he is bluffing; QT or 2 diamonds. |
Posted Thu Jul 20, 2006 9:59 am GMT by zinn0
Sorry, missed that. I still push/raise.
Posted Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:15 am GMT by Johny
Without any reads Villain could have anything. Do you know if he played draws aggressively? Do you know how he played monsters?
I really think you should have bet the turn.
Posted Thu Jul 20, 2006 12:54 pm GMT by efram
tuff to lay down AA here.
If you do get away, you've plenty of chips to be in it.
If you call and are wrong, your stack is cut in half, but you're not crippled.
For that reason alone, clearly if you call and win, mo chips 4 u.
It seems like a failed flush draw trying to steal. Why the check on the turn.
I do this sometimes to confuse opponents, especially when I have a monster, (but rarely with a flush draw that I don't have a piece of)
To make it look like I'm weak, looking for a free card. His 3x bb pre-flop raise could mean JJ or 99 and he has a set, or any Jx trying to steal. I think odds are he doesn't have a set. If he did, he doesn't check the turn because the board is flushy. I would NEVER give a free card there unless I had the nut flush draw myself. I think that eliminates a set. His turn-check/river-re-raise says I have a J with a weak kicker and I bet you don't. Two pair is a good possibility tho.
I don't think he has KK, or QQ because he wouldn't check the flushy board on turn, which I'm surprised you did.
Either busted flush draw, JA, KJ, QJ, or he rivered his kicker. Seems strange to raise pre-flop with J7 unless he's on a steal.
Even more possibile he was fearing you had a better J but since you checked the turn he has you on Ax or busted flush draw and thinks he can buy the pot with the river bet.
I've talked my self into a call here.
Interested to see the results.
Posted Thu Jul 20, 2006 12:58 pm GMT by supafrey
I raised 1500 chips to 3300 total and he folded.
Posted Thu Jul 20, 2006 1:01 pm GMT by efram
damn, next time just call so we can see what he had.
It helps us better analyze our analyzing ablilities. 
nice play tho.
Posted Thu Jul 20, 2006 7:29 pm GMT by fiezk
| zinn0 wrote: | | Maybe I'm not seeing something here, but what hand checks behind us on the turn and then goes crazy on the river? |
The raise came from a fairly big stack in late position, so: Either a monster (set, two pair, or possibly a rivered straight) or a bluff. There's simply no value in re-raising the river with only a pair.
You spoke earlier of not wanting to show how strangely you played your AA, why? There's no point in being embarrassed at the table. There's no disadvantage in the table thinking of you as a tricky player.
Posted Mon Jul 24, 2006 8:33 am GMT by MrDarling
Supa, if I was on this table with you, and you played this hand like that I would open fold by the turn unless I had a monster. You are such an aggressive player, I´ve never seen you check all the way to the river..
That said. I actually did make a similar mistake my last S&G, Last table villain is very aggressive and raises 3XBB pre-flop . He was caught stealing the blinds many time before, so I called with pockets 2.
flop is A x x rain bow , he checks and i go allin.
Now, after the fact, I realized he will never check a flop after a preflop raise, regardless of the cards. His check should have raised an alarm in my head.
of course, he turned over AK, the K on the turned sealed my game.
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