25NL: Top two facing c/r on the flop |
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Posted Fri Jul 21, 2006 5:21 pm GMT by TheSalche
Villain is 16/6 over 71 hands with an aggression factor of .53 (.5 preflop).
I haven't been doing much at this table, raising with jack 10 off isn't one of my normal plays.
I'm obviously worried about QK here and a set of 9s, but I'm beating every other likely holding villain has. Thoughts on what to do here?
Button ($21.20)
SB ($9.50)
BB ($21.95)
UTG ($24.75)
UTG+1 ($26.50)
MP1 ($31.15)
MP2 ($87.39)
Hero ($23.20)
CO ($21.09)
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T, J. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
4 folds, Hero raises to $1, 3 folds, BB calls $0.75.
Flop: ($2.10) 9, J, T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2, BB raises to $6, Hero ???
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Posted Fri Jul 21, 2006 7:44 pm GMT by efram
tuff hand to get away from.
What suits are the cards on the board?
I always lose money with 2 pair and am learning to lay it down more often.
If the board is flushy its possible villian is trying to protect his set/str8 and a lay down might be easier.
He may be making a play with a draw, AQ, K8, A8, .
TPTK AJ, KJ and you're dominating him right now.
A raise of any decent amount almost commits you to this pot, so it seems its push or fold. If you come over the top for 6, 8 or 10 more, if he calls then what?
Honestly, I think I push. I think he's making a play with TPGK with a str8 draw and is testing the waters with it.
If the board is not flushy, and I have a set or a str8 there, I smooth call the $2 hoping to get more from you on the turn or river. I don't think he wants a call. But its not my money and its easy to say from here.
In the heat of the moment, I might lay it down, but for now, PUSH!!
How did it turn out?
Posted Fri Jul 21, 2006 8:25 pm GMT by LeafsFan1122
Sorry to semi-hijack here, but Salche, what does 16/6 represent, and I know how to locate my own (and opponents) agression factors, but I'm just curious as to how you use them in a game time situation.
Posted Fri Jul 21, 2006 8:51 pm GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
The problem here is that any call or raise is bound to commit us to the pot, unless we get lucky enough to spike a J or T on the turn. It's possible he has a draw and he's semi-bluffing, but the fact he made the raise out of position is pretty strong... of course, this is $25 NL we're talking and players there do all sorts of stupid things. Calling might freeze him up if he misses on the turn, but any re-raise is putting a substantial amount of our chips at risk.
There's no move I'm crazy about here. I know some people will think this is ultra-weak, but I almost prefer folding here, unless your opponent has a history of making moves like this without much of a hand. My feeling is that there's bound to be any number of better situations for playing a big pot.
Posted Sat Jul 22, 2006 6:25 am GMT by Jefecaminador
I think you have villian beat atm. Call his raise and if an AKQ doesnt fall push the turn, regardless of what villian does. I don't see him reraising on the flop with KQ at this level. He prolly has TPTK+, but i don't see a set or anything that beats your top two.
Posted Sun Jul 23, 2006 6:55 pm GMT by TheSalche
apologies for not putting the suits up
it was a rainbow flop, so i wasnt worried about flushes at all
jefe - the 16/6 means 16% VP$IP, voluntary put $ in pot, and the is 6 is for preflop raise
his aggression factor is low, af = bets + raises / calls so he is a rather passive player, and from the other two numbers we can tell he's tight, so this player looks to be weak-tight
efram - i highly doubt K8 and A8 from a tight player, but those other hands are possibilies, don't forget pocket pairs from QQ - AA, which i am also beating
i agree - raising here commits us to the pot, which is one reason why this is a difficult decision, calling also puts us in a tough spot since any queen or 8 on the turn is scary
Posted Mon Jul 24, 2006 7:01 am GMT by UrAteUp
I think hero is beat here and should lay the hand down. Think of hands thats villian could be playing. KQo would be the fastest that comes to my mind. He could also be bluffing but I highly doubt it if.
Posted Mon Jul 24, 2006 3:13 pm GMT by Jefecaminador
So did he have a horribly played AA or what?
I bet anyone here besides salche 10$ that top 2 was good here.
Posted Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:35 pm GMT by Ensano
I agree... hero is good.... I have a feeling someone is overplaying AA here....
Posted Tue Jul 25, 2006 12:38 am GMT by TheSalche
good discussion here
villain had AA
I flat called the flop, turn came 7, he bet half pot and we shoved the rest in after that. River came a 7 as well giving him better two pair, oh well.
Let's take a look at villain's mistakes here
1. Not re-raising preflop with AA, should've done that, especially since he was out of position.
2. Check/raising the flop, this builds a big pot, which is something you don't want to do with a one pair hand considering the board is so draw heavy.
3. Getting involved in a hand against me ... self-explanatory
Posted Tue Jul 25, 2006 1:54 am GMT by Jefecaminador
God I'm good.
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