help with pot odds, bet odds, implied odds |
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Posted Sun Jul 30, 2006 6:50 am GMT by silientmind
can someone explain or give me more examples to make this clear. also teach me how i would do this in a live game
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Pot Odds The odds you get when analyzing the current size of the pot vs. your next call.
"There's $200 already in the pot, and only another $10 bet coming at me, so my pot odds are good if I hit that flush."
Bet Odds The odds you get as a result of evaluating the number of callers to a raise. "With a 1 in 5 chance of hitting it, and knowing all six of these guys are gonna call my bet, my bet odds are good too."
Implied Odds The odds you are getting after the assumed result of betting for the remainder of the hand. "Since I think these guys are going to call on the turn and river, my implied odds are excellent."
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is pot odds the one that lets you know if you should call if you are drawing? what are bet odds and implied odds.
ex. pot odds?
pot = 500
flop is out with 2 cards unseen(turn + river)
im on a flush draw with 9 outs
do i call the bet on the flop for the turn + river combined?
34.97% chance to hit the flop on the flop for the turn + river combined
35% of $500 = 175
or
do i just call the bet on the flop for the turn?
20% of $500 = $100
so any bet under $100 should be called
then on the turn for the river?
if this is wrong, go ahead and show me how i should do it along with examples of the bet odds and implied odds
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Posted Sun Jul 30, 2006 7:52 am GMT by fiezk
In the below examples it's a $100/$200 limit game.
Pot odds
you are heads up. After seeing the flop the pot size is $300. Villain bets $100 and you have a flush draw, should you call?
You have a roughly 1/5, or 20% to make you flush on the turn, thus you can say you have a 20% equity until the next betting round. After villain bets, the pot size is $400 and you have the option to call for an additional $100 making the total pot $500.
You have 20% equity for the turn: 0.20 * $500 = $100, which makes the call neither unprofitable nor profitable. Actually the odds are closer to 19% which would indicate that it would be unprofitable to make the call. But you should still call. Why? Because of the implied odds.
Implied odds
This concept is quite simply, really. What happens if you make your flush on the turn? Depending on your opponent, and his hand, you might get as much as three more big bets ($600) out of him. This has to be accounted for when making the call on the flop.
When I wrote earlier that it was $100 to win a pot of $500, that was only half the truth. It might be $100 to win $1100 making it an easy call. Knowing your potential winnings if you make your hand is a hard task, but you'll get better at it as you gain experience.
Bet odds
Let's say your on the button with the nut flush draw and it's 6 handed. The small blind hesitates, then bets. Everyone calls, you raise and again everyone calls.
Here the pot has increased by 6 * 2 * $100 = $1200 and you only put in 1/6 of that money. Knowing that you have roughly 1/5 equity till the next round you made money by raising. (also by raising you might get a free look at the river making your equity 35% instead of 20%)
Here's an example:
You and your five partners own a company together, of which you own 20%. You each decide to invest $10 000 into the company adding a total of $60 000 to its value. As you own 20%, the value of your stock went up $12 000, while it only cost you $10 000 - you just made $2000.
Hope this helps
Posted Sun Jul 30, 2006 9:34 am GMT by silientmind
thanks, that actually helped a lot. but if ONLY the flop is out and im on a flush draw. i have 9 outs, do i only call the percentage of the pot of the 1 turn card or do i call both percentage as the turn + river?
ex.
im on a flush draw with 9 outs
do i call a ~20% bet for 1 next card only
or
do i call a ~35% bet for the turn + river
also, earlier i was using the pot odds calculator and i put in
pot: $500
outs: 9(flush draw) with turn + river to come
it says the max i can call is $269 ~ $270 which is ~54% of $500
when i changed it to
pot: $500
outs: 9(flush draw) with ONLY turn to come
it says the max i can call is $118 ~ $120 which is ~24% of $500
why is that?
Posted Sun Jul 30, 2006 1:55 pm GMT by snoogins47
It's kinda a combination. You consider your odds of hitting on BOTH the next cards if there is going to be no further betting: basically, one or both of you is all in. Other than that, it's typically best to just look at one more card.
There's a the usual dose of fuzziness here too though, depending on your position, how often you're going to get a free river card.. how often you'll hit and lose.. how often you may win the pot some other way, yadda yadda.
When it comes down to it though, just remember that since cards come one at a time, you're basically only paying for them one at a time.
Posted Sun Jul 30, 2006 2:51 pm GMT by fiezk
And your question about the ~270 in a 500 pot.
It's not a $500 pot anymore, is it? Lets look at a simple example:
You have K  Q Flop comes: A 8 2  Pot is $500 and your opponent pushes all-in for $270.
It's $270 to call in a, now, $770 pot. If you call, the final pot will be $1040 and since no betting can take place on the turn you have 35% equity (or 35 % chance of winning it.)
0.35 * $1040 = $364. Hence you make $364-$270=$94 on average by making the call.
In the example you typed into your pot odds calculator the pot was $500 after your opponent bet. And in that example the final pot would be:
$500 + $270(your call) = $770 of which you have 35% equity.
0.35 * $770 = $269.5 ~$270
Posted Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:35 am GMT by silientmind
thanks for answering my questions. im getting more of an understanding of how pot odds and implied odds work 
Posted Mon Aug 21, 2006 12:55 am GMT by MasterMike
Equity is how much of the pot you actually own??
Posted Mon Aug 21, 2006 4:36 pm GMT by Gunslinger
Your equity in a pot is how much of that pot you expect to win in the long run. For example, if you have the nut-flush draw on the flop, you have roughly a 35% chance of making your flush by the river. In this same situation with the same sized pot, happening thousands of times in your poker career, you will win on average 35% of the pot. This is your equity.
If, in this situation, you are putting in less than 35% of the money into the pot, then you are making money in the long run. In this example, let's say there are five people all paying to see the turn, so you are putting in 20% of the money. Since, over time, you will 35% of the pot, you can call with a positive expectation. You can raise, if you believe everyone will call, thus you are still only putting 20% of the money in, yet your 35% equity over time is now from a larger pot.
Hope this helps.
Posted Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:27 pm GMT by MasterMike
I am slowing getting it. The implied odds are a little tricky... but the more i read it, the more im understanding. I guess this really only works for flush draws then/ open ended draws?
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