Posted Tue Aug 01, 2006 11:21 pm GMT by LeafsFan1122
Villain is new to the table, I was just a little unsure about this hand.
PokerStars Game #5767009918: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2006/08/02 - 00:14:41 (ET)
Table 'Datura' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: LeafsFan1122 ($14.65 in chips)
Seat 2: surfbud ($12.15 in chips)
Seat 3: osubuzz ($10.75 in chips)
Seat 4: smyrell05 ($15.50 in chips)
Seat 5: ferny73 ($14.20 in chips)
Seat 6: danmas ($51.70 in chips)
Seat 8: dbrady22 ($8.40 in chips)
RictorE will be allowed to play after the button
LeafsFan1122: posts small blind $0.10
surfbud: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to LeafsFan1122 9  9 
osubuzz: folds
smyrell05: calls $0.25
ferny73: calls $0.25
danmas: calls $0.25
dbrady22: calls $0.25
LeafsFan1122: calls $0.15
surfbud: checks
*** FLOP ***   
LeafsFan1122: checks
surfbud: checks
smyrell05: checks
ferny73: checks
danmas: checks
Erichdufo joins the table at seat #7
dbrady22: checks
*** TURN *** 
LeafsFan1122: bets $1.50
surfbud: folds
smyrell05: folds
ferny73: folds
danmas: folds
dbrady22: calls $1.50
*** RIVER *** 
LeafsFan1122: bets $1.50
dbrady22: raises $5.15 to $6.65 and is all-in
LeafsFan1122: ?
Not sure if I should make the call or not.
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Posted Tue Aug 01, 2006 11:33 pm GMT by mooseontheloose
Well, I'm not very experienced but to me I'm not sure he has the 3 - with 2 hearts out there now you'd think he'd reraise you with a set, and if he had a K I'd assume he would've bet the flop. To me it seems like he has the 8 but like I said, that is my opinion and I don't have that much experience. I'm more posting this to see if I was able to read his hand or not  If you called, what did he end up having?
Posted Tue Aug 01, 2006 11:35 pm GMT by LeafsFan1122
I'll post results because I trust that I won't get any results oriented opinions afterwards.
Well, my line of thinking was very simmilar. A limp PF probably doesn't mean he has a 3, and a king he would have bet the flop with seeing as everyone checked to him on the button.
I called, he showed 35o.
It's not like a huge deal or anything - relatively small pot, I just can't put him on a 3, K or higher PP than I had.
Posted Tue Aug 01, 2006 11:42 pm GMT by mooseontheloose
Ah okay.
Yeh, when I first read it my first thought was "ooh, he's got the quads" but then I thought about it. He would've had to limp with a 3, not too far-fetched but something to consider. He then, what made me rethink the whole 3 thing, only called you when he was holding a set and a flush draw had just come out. That right there made me think he didn't hold a 3 and like I said, he was weak on the flop so middle or bottom pair made sense (or a PP, but anything above 99 he would've likely raised since he was on the button). Basically he limped with garbage, was allowed 1 free card that made him a hand and he pulled out the nuts on the river.
From what I read I would've likely called but perhaps there's something I missed that should've been noticed
Posted Tue Aug 01, 2006 11:47 pm GMT by LeafsFan1122
If my calculations are correct, I was getting ~3:1 meaning if I call the bet and win >1/4, it is a good call. Is my logic okay thus far?
Posted Tue Aug 01, 2006 11:49 pm GMT by mooseontheloose
Too tired to think math haha, someone else can help there 
Edit: My bad, it's late & I misread
Posted Tue Aug 01, 2006 11:50 pm GMT by LeafsFan1122
I'm first to act.
Posted Wed Aug 02, 2006 1:48 am GMT by greathuskie
i would have raised preflop and try to thin the field a bit, get that 35o out of the hand .
most of the time in LP i do raise preflop with any pocket pair so it has nothing to do with the results.
and you cant really think you are ahead on the river either...though i cant say for sure i would have folded.
Posted Wed Aug 02, 2006 4:13 am GMT by MrDarling
I agree about raising preflop - I might limp with a small pp from the blinds, but 9's is a decent hand.
Then, a bet on the flop. Not to big maybe, but you need some information. Without a bet, how can you get any.
The way the hand is played though, its hard not to call
Posted Wed Aug 02, 2006 4:20 am GMT by xDiamond_CutteRx
This hand should have been yours, and would have if you'd played aggressively.
7-handed, I put in a big raise with 99 from the SB after all those limpers. A raise of 7x the BB or so would probably have won the hand right there and been a warning to further limpers. And if you do get called, you will almost cerutainly still have the best hand.
With that flop, I prefer to lead at it, because there's only one overcard, and no one is likely to have a GOOD King (no raise pre-flop).
To tell you the truth, that call on the turn would have frozen me, and I'd have checked the river. Although we made a full house, that 3rd 3 probably did nothing to the relative strength of our hand. He'd probably push at that point, but I'd lean toward folding with so little invested (if you'd checked the river instead of making a small bet).
Posted Wed Aug 02, 2006 8:13 am GMT by shorn7
| Quote: | To tell you the truth, that call on the turn would have frozen me, and I'd have checked the river. Although we made a full house, that 3rd 3 probably did nothing to the relative strength of our hand. He'd probably push at that point, but I'd lean toward folding with so little invested (if you'd checked the river instead of making a small bet).
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This is great advice diamond. I think you can get away from this hand as well based on what little you have invested. Once the turn is called, I am playing small pot poker with your hand as it is likely you are beaten. When the pot is limped (which I don't mind with your hand BTW in the SB as its main value is from flopping a set against someone who makes top pair), you can never be sure what someone else has. So, when someone makes a "strong" call (like he did on the turn) on an otherwise drawless, ugly board, you need to be very careful.
BTW, you were only getting like 2.5-1 from my calculations, so your hand has to be good at least 40% of the time for the call to show positive EV. Given the sequence and the betting, I don't see that as likely.
Posted Wed Aug 02, 2006 1:17 pm GMT by LeafsFan1122
| shorn7 wrote: | | BTW, you were only getting like 2.5-1 from my calculations, so your hand has to be good at least 40% of the time for the call to show positive EV. Given the sequence and the betting, I don't see that as likely. |
Thanks for the advice guys, appreciate it. Just a little confused on how this works though. 2.5:1 to my previous meathod of calculation would be about a 30% breakeven point in terms of EV.
Posted Wed Aug 02, 2006 2:18 pm GMT by shorn7
Sorry...mis-stroke on the keyboard. 30% is correct
Posted Wed Aug 02, 2006 2:19 pm GMT by LeafsFan1122
Excellent :D Thanks.
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