Posted Tue Aug 08, 2006 12:28 am GMT by mooseontheloose
Just lost with this hand, annoyed because I bubbled due to it. Til this point I'd played great, made no dumb calls, bluffed properly, got paid when I should've, etc. Here's the situation.
My chips - Bout 5000
Villian chips - 14000 (CL by far)
I'm BB, a few callers with Villian in EP, I check with J4o.
Flop comes 235 rainbow. I bet out a smallish bet but then the CL came over the top and put me All-in. Hadn't seen many hands with him but he did this a lot on the flop; used his stack. If his opponent bet, he raised by a lot (usually All-in) or would go All-in if no one else bet. I made a mistake betting but wasn't totally committed.
I would've more than doubled up, close to triple. I needed to call something like 3k to win around 12k (can't remember exactly, but roughly).
Now, I figured his hand was weak. He limped from EP and seemed to be playing anything so I put him on 2 overcards, 1 pair or a medium PP.
I decide that my J is likely live and the Villian has a pair, PP or on the board. Any A, any 6 and any J will win me this hand. I call, turn comes 10 and river is Q. Villian flips over Q5o and I'm done. At the time, I felt I had the outs and was sure my opponent was weak, barely ahead of me. I wasn't really upset I made the call in general, upset that it knocked me out.
Looking back, was this a dumb call or was it justified?
Damn tired, gotta hit the sack 
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Posted Tue Aug 08, 2006 3:10 am GMT by efram
IMHO easy fold. You've come into an unraised pot with J4o. You made a stab at the pot on the flop and he comes over the top. Granted it is an overbet, but you have lots of chips left. Why risk it all on a draw. Your J may not be good if he's pushing with Qx or better. It just seems to me to get it all in with 2 cards to come on a draw on the bubble is a bad play.
On the bubble, with 3000 chips left, you could easily let someone else get knocked out and then you cash.
Personally I don't risk my tournament life on a draw unless its a damn good one, EVEN more so on the bubble.
Posted Tue Aug 08, 2006 3:50 am GMT by fiezk
If it's 3k into a 12k pot it's an easy call. There's no way you can put Villain on a made straight.
Posted Tue Aug 08, 2006 9:50 am GMT by mooseontheloose
Yeh, that was the problem. I knew he was weak, I was likely behind but had outs, and the pot was begging for me to call lol. I usually don't go All-in on draws though, not sure why I took a stand here.
Posted Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:07 am GMT by UrAteUp
| fiezk wrote: | | If it's 3k into a 12k pot it's an easy call. There's no way you can put Villain on a made straight. |
Looking at the odds here you have 11 outs. So thats 11/52 or 1:5 chance of hitting an out card VS a 1:4 pot odds. You shouldn't have made this call based on the odds either.
Posted Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:47 am GMT by mooseontheloose
Ah, miscalculated I guess. Oh well.
Posted Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:52 am GMT by crack
Pot odds are overrated in tournaments.
Stacks are very important. What nobody has mentioned yet is that this guy is CL, he can take risks and he can easily take a hit from you no problem, he can also knock you out.
That is very important. Even if your J is live, you still need to improve your hand to double up and stay in the tournament.
You don't need a hand to push all in, but you need a hand to call an all in.
I think this was a bad call, and if he is playing most hands, then you can wait for a better spot to get your money in.
You never mentioned the blinds, but if he is CL by far then they can't be that high yet, so I fold and wait for a better spot, even with the odds slightly in your favour.
Posted Tue Aug 08, 2006 11:35 am GMT by mooseontheloose
Blinds were 800, my stack would've been around 3000 after a fold.
Dumb play, guess I thought I had a chance when I really didn't.
Posted Tue Aug 08, 2006 1:08 pm GMT by Skribbles
| crack wrote: | | Pot odds are overrated in tournaments. |
Posted Tue Aug 08, 2006 1:15 pm GMT by MJJ
If I got to that point, I think I would have done the same thing. Folding with 3000 left (and 400/800) blinds wouldn't be an option with that hand. I would actually only count it as 8 outs (assuming all str8 outs are clean) but I wouldn't fold that draw, leaving myself 2 orbits worth of blinds.
One point- I don't like a small raise into the chip leader, I would opt to either push with that flop or hope to get a free card- if I am raised after my check I can fold w/ a few more chips or gamble on the draw.
Posted Tue Aug 08, 2006 1:46 pm GMT by mooseontheloose
Agree completely. It was a check/push situation and I didn't think it through before I bet.
Posted Tue Aug 08, 2006 8:04 pm GMT by TheSalche
| UrAteUp wrote: | | fiezk wrote: | | If it's 3k into a 12k pot it's an easy call. There's no way you can put Villain on a made straight. |
Looking at the odds here you have 11 outs. So thats 11/52 or 1:5 chance of hitting an out card VS a 1:4 pot odds. You shouldn't have made this call based on the odds either. |
11 outs twice is closer to 38% to win ... probably 2.5 to 1 or so to win so it was a good call based on pot odds
but as was said before
pot odds suck in tournaments
edit: what were the blinds? unless they were really high compared to your stack, i probably wouldn't have even bothered betting at the flop the first time around
Posted Tue Aug 08, 2006 11:15 pm GMT by mooseontheloose
As mentioned the blinds were 400/800. I had ~3000 after flop bet.
Posted Wed Aug 09, 2006 12:10 am GMT by vyni
On the bubble of a tourney, odds mean nothing. If this guys doing so much pushing, you should be happy and looking to connect with a cheap flop, or find a pocket pair in you hand and doubling up then.
Any chip leader on the bubble should be aggressive, and the low card flop should set off some red flags here: there's actually a decent chance that he did connect on it. Compound that with the folding players you said initialy called bb to see flop: assume they all bowed out with higher cards to see the flop. Their spent high cards increases the likelyhood that hes on lower cards, and may have connected to that flop. If so, its a low pair and yes, you have outs. But on the bubble of a tourney, you never want to push or call all in looking for outs to make a hand... pot odds are gone here: your 11 outs staring down at the flop , assuming he has connected or holds a pocket pair... means calling gives you a little over 58% chance of busting out right now. I wouldnt call in such a raise on the bubble looking to make a hand as I sat with J high against a very possible pair.
Now they let you check to see that flop, so he has no idea what kind of cards you're on yet he responded to your raise with that push. He must realize that you may have connected on it, but risked doubling you up? Again a red flag here.
Knowing an overbet was going to follow your post flop wager, this should have been a clear check/fold situation on the bubble. 3k with blinds of 4/800... thats only going to give you a few more opportunities to pick some chips up, but to me it's enough to look for a better opportunity to double up on this guy.
imho that is
Posted Wed Aug 09, 2006 12:38 am GMT by vyni
Another glance here, left with 3k you have plenty of chance to pick a hand to move with: those chip counts on the bubble, looks like this wasnt a 10 man. Asumming its the 45 man stars, on the buble means theres 8 left on the table, and you were bb in this hand. It would have only cost you 400 to be dealt the next 7 hands.
That's just how I would have looked at it anyways. lol
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