Please share your comments on this one |
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Posted Thu Aug 10, 2006 11:31 am GMT by arras
http://www.pokerhand.org/?448780
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Posted Thu Aug 10, 2006 11:53 am GMT by crack
Depends on the player.
If you put him on say 66 then you probably have 8 or 9 outs to outdraw him, but you are not getting odds to do so.
Or if he has a made flush then you have less outs.
Or a set.
I think I would just lay down my aces here a lot, unless I know this player overplays his overpair hands so much, something like TT with the Tc or something or perhaps likes to try and push players off the hand by playing scary boards.
Basically, I think this is a good spot to lay down AA, because the board is super draw heavy and all you have is an overpair.
Posted Thu Aug 10, 2006 12:01 pm GMT by Jauron
Hard to think you are ahead, you've got a lot of money in there, and you are only dead if he has 5  6 . Even so I probably fold this more than I call at this point given the way you've played it.
Question, if you were willing to call off $18 more, why lead out so small on the turn? I'd be inclined to bet at least the pot on the turn, maybe even push if I was willing to call the all-in.
I also hate the flop bet, thats not a good flop for Aces, so many draws, I think you play it way to soft on the flop. The guy limped then smooth called the raise, he could have any two cards. I probably put the hammer down on the flop and slow the hell up on the turn if we see it.
Posted Thu Aug 10, 2006 12:07 pm GMT by zinn0
Wow, you are in a tight spot. I think, as Craig stated, this is a villain-dependant play here. I doubt you are ahead here enough to make this call. Sure we've got outs to the flush, but it isn't exactly the nuts with this board, and we aren't getting a very good price to find out either.
Survey says!! Fold.
Posted Thu Aug 10, 2006 12:07 pm GMT by LeafsFan1122
The hand itself seems to be read dependant, but it looks like an easy fold. Villain does not have TT-AA because he flat called PF and post flop. It looks to me like villain flopped a set and then the turn was a scare card for him.
Posted Thu Aug 10, 2006 1:18 pm GMT by UrAteUp
Tight spot to say the least. 3 flush on the board and villian could be on a flush draw, straight draw or bluffin his ass off. I hate large PP...lol...either you make money or loose it. Personally I push after the flop.
You did good with the pre-flop raise here. That should have been a good enough to keep several hands favorable for this flop from entering the pot. Villian is acting like he has a flush draw or straight draw here. One card to come and you would for sure need a club to take the win I think provided villian has the flush and not a straight flush. This is ball check time in my book. Odds say lay it down, the gambler in me probably would have done exactly what you did Arras.
Interested to see how this comes out.
Posted Thu Aug 10, 2006 2:16 pm GMT by arras
| UrAteUp wrote: | | Tight spot to say the least. 3 flush on the board and villian could be on a flush draw |
Yeah, I was hoping he was on a flush draw. Unfortunately he flopped two pair. Forturnately, I rivered the flush. Assuming my numbers are correct (which I'm pretty sure they will not be), I was getting 1.7 to 1 odds on 1.5 to 1 money.
| Juaron wrote: | Question, if you were willing to call off $18 more, why lead out so small on the turn? I'd be inclined to bet at least the pot on the turn, maybe even push if I was willing to call the all-in.
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Good point, definitely needed to raise more on the turn.
Posted Thu Aug 10, 2006 2:29 pm GMT by crack
1.7/1 odds on a flush?
Not with one card to come.
Posted Thu Aug 10, 2006 2:33 pm GMT by arras
| crack wrote: | 1.7/1 odds on a flush?
Not with one card to come. |
Well, I figured my numbers were wrong. It says I'm a 56 to 36 dog on the turn, which is 1.55 to 1? Or am I doing that wrong?
Posted Thu Aug 10, 2006 3:41 pm GMT by crack
Yes.
You are using the 2x/4x rule for counting outs incorrectly.
You are 36% with two cards to come, about.
On the turn ypu multiply your outs by 2, so you are 18% or just over 4/1 dog with one card to come, and thats if you fogure he doesnt already have a flush or a club in his hand.
Posted Thu Aug 10, 2006 3:49 pm GMT by Hungry4Knowledge
He had 5-8 for two pairs, right? Then you had 3 4's, 3 7's, 9 clubs, 2 aces and 3 6's that's not a club for split with straight. Then you have 18,5 outs of 44 cards left, if you could put him on the correct hand. So you got about 2-1 on your money and you had 42% chance of win. So if you read him perfectly it was the right call  Just Practicing my math skills, so please correct me if I'm wrong. 
Posted Thu Aug 10, 2006 3:55 pm GMT by arras
| crack wrote: | Yes.
You are using the 2x/4x rule for counting outs incorrectly.
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I'm not using that rule, I'm taking the strict numbers that pokerhand is giving me.
Posted Thu Aug 10, 2006 3:58 pm GMT by arras
| Hungry4Knowledge wrote: | | He had 5-8 for two pairs, right? Then you had 3 4's, 3 7's, 9 clubs, 2 aces and 3 6's that's not a club for split with straight. Then you have 18,5 outs of 44 cards left, if you could put him on the correct hand. So you got about 2-1 on your money and you had 42% chance of win. So if you read him perfectly it was the right call Just Practicing my math skills, so please correct me if I'm wrong. |
I think this is right, but I had a 42% chance to not lose and 36% chance to win. The 3 non club 6's are what constitutes the 6% difference. I think.
Posted Thu Aug 10, 2006 4:03 pm GMT by Sean_in_NJ
| crack wrote: | | and thats if you fogure he doesnt already have a flush or a club in his hand. |
Bingo, not to mention a straight or a set.
The 1.5:1 is because pokerhand knows EXACTLY what villain has...you don't. Your actual odds are better than you can probably count on because no one who isn't EXTREMELY OVEROPTIMISTIC would count the other 6 2-pair outs to go with 2 aces and 8 clubs. That's where the 16 outs come from and why pokerhand put you at such a small dog.
In reality, you have to factor in the other possible holdings like a set, straight or made flush and realize you may not have 16 outs. You likely have half that number.
Posted Thu Aug 10, 2006 4:16 pm GMT by ki_cz
Sorry, you said he hit 2 pair on the flop. What did he have exactly? 7/8? Just interested to know what people are willing to call a 6xbb raise with pf.
On that note (sorry to hijack), but these are the limits I usually play. Do you find that raising 6xbb with QQ-AA is enough? I'm finding that with the more I play, the more I'm running into people who say to themselves "whatever, it's just 1.50, maybe I'll hit huge on the flop", with suited cards, connectors, 2 face cards. Of course, in the long run, I'm going to win a lot more than I'll lose, but it still pisses me off when I think I'm making the right play. Should I be considering raising more than 6xbb - 8xbb pre-flop with premium hands, or would this knock too many people out of the pot to make it profitable?
Posted Thu Aug 10, 2006 4:21 pm GMT by crack
| arras wrote: | | crack wrote: | Yes.
You are using the 2x/4x rule for counting outs incorrectly.
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I'm not using that rule, I'm taking the strict numbers that pokerhand is giving me. |
Well that is the rule pokerhand is using then.
Posted Thu Aug 10, 2006 4:23 pm GMT by arras
| ki_cz wrote: | Sorry, you said he hit 2 pair on the flop. What did he have exactly? 7/8? Just interested to know what people are willing to call a 6xbb raise with pf.
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8 and a 5. Blew my mind. I'm not sure about the rest because I usually play limit or nl tourneys, but apparently it wasn't quite enough. :D
Posted Thu Aug 10, 2006 5:31 pm GMT by Jauron
About 2:1 and position can be enough to invite some hands you might rule out initially from some players. Not saying it was a good call on his part, but if he just puts you on something like AK, it's not horrible. Obviously he can't want to call if he knows you have a big pair.
Nice catch on the river, given he just had 2 pair, you had more outs than you thought.
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